Zogby: Rudy beats Hillary by 7%, loses to Obama by 6%

[Alhena]

A truly striking poll. It also shows Obama making great gains on Hillary for the nomination.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1252

Giuliani 47%, Clinton 40%
Giuliani 40%, Obama 46%
Giuliani 46%, Edwards 40%

[Red Zelda]

1. Hopefully, Hillary will just get out of the way

She, like Gore, is yesterday's news.
Obama is the new JFK.

[oasis]

8. I knew JFK. JFK was a friend of mine. The senator from Illinois is no JFK.

;-)

[Radical Activist]

37. Do you know the Senator from Illinois?

[jobycom]

10. And Obama is tomorrow's yesterday's news, and....

Come on, both will go through ups and downs over the next year and half.

[katsy]

15. Gore is yesterday's news?

:eyes:

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

17. Gore Is Yesterday's News?

I suppose, only if you consider being part of a motion picture which won an Oscar YESTERDAY, being yesterday's news.

[Red Zelda]

18. Yeah, we need presidents with Oscars

Shit, let's just elect Helen Mirren.

[ElizabethDC]

23. Yes, I think she's just going to give up and go home now n/t

:sarcasm:

[MannyGoldstein]

2. How's He Polling Against Leon Spinks?

And how is Spinks doing against Speed Racer?

[Kagemusha]

3. Well, Zogby's great for creating new conventional wisdom.

These results are plausible to me, and I support Obama a lot more than the other two, but I know my Zogby history so I'm not getting too excited about it.

Though I think McCain's plunge in support is genuine and has been coming loud and clear since his decision to fully embrace the war, the surge, and stubbornly staying the course.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

20. re: mcCain

his plunge is real and growing. Watch for him to bow out within weeks. The local affairs in AZ politics last week pretty much took the wind out of his sails and shoved it up his pandering ass.

(he lost a local election, as did his entire group of supporters. When I find the article, I will cite it.)

[Kagemusha]

21. I'm familiar with the case.

But at least before, he could claim to be more entrenched nationally than locally. Rudy's practically stationary honestly - it's just that McCain is sinking relative to him.

[originalpckelly]

4. Looks like Obama's the one then.

That's pretty cool. I like Obama for a number of reasons, and this is just another. (For however accurate this polling can be this early.)

[Alhena]

6. I think the Obama smears are wearing off ....

a few weeks ago Obama was having to fend off right-wing attacks that he was a Muslim deep cover agent educated at a madrassa. Even though it was obviously BS, I think it had its effect. Now I think people are taking a fresh look at Obama.

[Laurab]

24. I think Obama's quick retorts have something to do with it

he is quite good at fending off the attacks. I agree that it's too early, but I get this feeling his campaign is going to continue doing well. IF no one else enters the race, he's looking better and better to me.

[Captain Hilts]

5. Other surveys have Hillary beating Giuliani. It's just too early. nt

[FrenchieCat]

7. In a just world,

Every Democrat running would beat Giuliani.

I don't get the GOP appeal for this guy. Is it that think that he knows something about National Security? :shrug:

[NoAmericanTaliban]

9. They think he can beat Hillary - is the appeal

[Pirate Smile]

11. It was a telephone survey. I posted this in the LBN thread but I'm going

to put it here too.

My first thought was it was probably one of the e-mail surveys so it would be more tilted toward the on-line community which seems to be less favorably inclined toward Hillary but nope, it was a phone survey.

Hillary Holds On; Giuliani Expands Lead in National Primary Tests
Obama advances, but McCain fades in partisan contests; Obama, Giuliani do best in general election match-ups

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton clings to a shrinking lead over Illinois Senator Barack Obama in a national test of Democratic primary voter preference, while Republican Rudy Giuliani is expanding his edge over John McCain, the maverick senator from Arizona, a new Zogby International telephone poll shows.

The survey was the first since last week’s very public spat between the Clinton and Obama campaigns over Hollywood fund–raising and the conduct of the first Clinton administration.
The telephone survey, which asked Democrats, Republicans, and non–aligned voters in which primary or caucus they planned to vote next year, was conducted Feb. 22–24, 2007, and included 1,078 likely voters (397 Republicans - MOE: +/- 5.0 percentage points, 439 Democrats - MOE: +/- 4.8 percentage points). The survey's overall margin of error was +/- 3.0 percentage points.

Among those who said they would vote in the Democratic primary or caucus for President, Clinton leads with 33% support, up 4% from our last telephone survey in early January. However, Obama has made dramatic gains in the last six weeks, moving from 14% support to 25% backing. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edward is a distant third, winning 12% support. One in five said they were undecided about which Democratic candidate to support.

-snip-
In the Democratic race, Clinton wins solid support among older voters, while Obama has the edge among younger counterparts. Clinton holds a 31% to 24% edge among white Democratic voters, while Obama leads among African–Americans, 36% to 27%. Progressives gave the nod to Obama, while moderates favored Clinton. The two were deadlocked at 30% support among male Democratic voters, but Clinton led among women, 34% to 22%.

In a measurement of how firm the support is for the candidates overall, Clinton’s support is just a bit weaker than that of Obama. A slight majority of Clinton supporters – 54% – said they are likely to change their minds before they actually cast a primary or caucus vote, while 48% of Obama supporters agreed. While his overall support lags, Edwards appears to have strong–minded backers: just 28% said they are likely to jump from the Edwards ship over the course of the next year.

[PresidentObama]

12. Too early, NNNEEEXXXXXTTTT n/t

[BeyondGeography]

13. It's too early, but I'll take it

At the very least, it shows that Obama's had a good couple of weeks.

[PresidentObama]

14. Very true.

Let's see if he can keep it up though ;)

I think he might, Obama is VERY talented!!

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

16. And yet not a single one of them will be a nominee. (nt)

[AshevilleGuy]

25. Nah, Hilary will be the nominee,

unless Gore comes in. I think it's already set, among the power circles to push her.

But Rudy would beat her in NY, and every other Dem except Gore. Obama will always poll high.

[phylny]

26. I'm not sure that Rudy would beat Hillary.

New Yorkers from the city know all about him, and won't be fooled, and others in the state will learn all about him.

[AshevilleGuy]

27. I really hope you are right.

Because if we lose NY and NJ, it is OVER. There is just no way to make up those 46 electoral votes.

[Kahuna]

29. NY, NJ, CT, NH, PA would ALL be in play. nt

[fujiyama]

36. I doubt Rudy would beat Hillary

I think I saw polls of her winning the state. She did pretty damn well in November.

But can she win the electoral college anyways? That's doubtful. I don't see Hillary taking crucial states like PA, WI, OH, and FL...as well as NM, NV (no way in hell she would win NV against anyone).

And I agree that other bordering states may be in play. NH would be tougher. Maybe even make NJ competitive.

[AshevilleGuy]

39. The problem would be that

we would be forced to spend enormous amounts of time and resources in Blue states, states that we should have in the bag. Rudy would force her or any Dem to do this, especially in NY and NJ. At the moment I am for Edwards, but more and more I am rethinking this, IF Rudy is their nominee.

[Nimrod2005]

19. ENOUGH SAID!!!

[mzmolly]

22. YAHOO. Obama is my second choice after Gore.

:toast:

[Kahuna]

28. Rudy would beat Hillary like a bad piece of meat;. He could actually

pick up northeastern states that Kerry and Gore won. Make no mistake about it, there is no love affair between Hillary and northeastern states.

[mtnsnake]

32. Rudy won't beat Hillary or anyone else because he won't get the Repuke nod

The conservative Republican base will never ever go for him, but if by some miracle he DID get the nod, ANY of our Democrats would mop up the floor with that arrogant jackoff of an over rated mayor.

BTW, it's amazing how someone on a Democratic board could express themselves like you have with such an outward showing of affection for "Rudy the Hillary Beater". Nice going!

[Inuca]

30. The numbers do not mean much at this point

The only point I wanted to make is that I hope Giuliani does not get the nomination, because I think he can be VERY dangerous. And this has nothing to do with these poll numbers. Many things will change in the year ahead, and I hope that enough will come out on Giuliani to topple him from the pedestal where many perceive him to be now, but I think that his general appeal can be significant to many.

[elizm]

31. And yet in the same poll...

Hillary still leads in the Democratic Primary among likely Democratic voters. WTF? So the Democrats WANT to nominate a loser? What will it take to get Hillary supporters to WAKE UP? Obama beats every single Republican candidate in this poll...and yet the likely Democratic voters favor Hillary. I give up.

[mtnsnake]

33. It's nice to see Obama doing well. I'm sure he'll match up well against any Republican

and kick their sorry asses if he gets past Hillary in our primary. Either way, Hillary or Obama, we'll likely kick the snot out of whoever they throw at us, although I think it's going to come down to Obama vs someone other than McCain or Giuliani.

[fuzzyball]

34. The dem nominee will NOT be selected on DU,

the nominee will be selected by real world democratic voters
in the primaries, which are what 10-12 months away? Way too
early for real world voters to take notice.

[fujiyama]

35. Obama's one advantage over Hillary

is that he still has an opportunity to make the case with many people. Many don't know who he is and don't have many preconceived notions (unless they watch Fox - believe he went to a Madrassah, etc etc).

Hillary has already been defined. She's incredibly polarizing, even among Democrats. And her high negative numbers and people set to not vote for her, make her a difficult sell.

I wouldn't take these early polls too seriously. At this point it really shows how disinterested are in the '08 campaign.

[Radical Activist]

38. What about the Nader factor?

I took an online Zogby poll that asked me if I would consider voting for Nader, depending on who the nominees of each party were. They gave 6 or so different match-ups. I've been wanting to see those results.

[AtomicKitten]

40. watch this space

I consider polling this early in the game pretty meaningless (except when my guy is up - Gobama! - hee-hee).

[Ethelk2044]

41. Obama

I hope the people wake up.

[Hippo_Tron]

42. Is this one of those Zogby Online surveys?

Because those are completely unreliable.

[Colobo]

43. No, phone poll

and VIVA OBAMA!!! :)

[election_2004]

44. "Meaningless. Those polls are meaningless."

The only polls that are valid and authentic are those that show Senator Clinton in the lead. Because that's how real, mainstream Democrats outside of DU really feel.

:eyes:
:sarcasm:

[Ethelk2044]

48. Polls

All polls are showing her leading however, her lead is decreasing over time. It shows it in Zogby and Rasmussan polls. Overtime her lead will decrease as we get closer to the election. Only time will tell who will win. It is too early. Most people (those who do not follow politics) do not know who Obama is right now. On the other hand the Clinton name is a household word. Therefore, the closer we get to the election Obama and the other candidates will get to be known and the % will change. Plus Nadar is planning on getting into the race again if Clinton leads.

[Pushed To The Left]

45. I haven't decided on a candidate yet, but I'm liking Obama more all the time! n/t!

[zulchzulu]

46. Only 321 days until the Iowa caucus!

Right around the corner....

:sarcasm:

[Apollo11]

47. GORE OBAMA 2008

Let's all find ways to show our support for Al Gore! :patriot:

Read Rolling Stone magazine: WHY GORE SHOULD RUN -- AND HOW HE CAN WIN
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/13248532/why_gore_should_run__and_how_he_can_win

Get ready for Al Gore's next book - The Assault on Reason - out in May!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/16/AR2006091600877.html

Visit the following websites:
www.algore.com
www.algore.org
www.draftgore.com - Sign the petition! :)

:kick:

[invictus]

49. No surprise there!

I have been saying that Obama is much more electable than Hillary with all her baggage and her past contradictions. America is sick of political dynasties. It is bad for the county and it is un-Democratic!