Rasmussen: Obama Moves to Top of Poll--33% Would Definitely Vote for Him

[flpoljunkie]

Obama Moves to Top of Poll: 33% Would Definitely Vote for Him
April 17, 2007

Barack Obama

Obama is up, Giuliani slips to second, Edwards gains ground, and the other candidates remain in pretty much where they were a month ago. Those are the April results from a Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey asking if citizens would definitely vote for or against the 2008 contenders.

Thirty-three percent (33%) of Likely Voters say they’d definitely vote for Illinois Senator Barack Obama (D). That’s the highest total received by any of ten leading Presidential hopefuls included in the poll. Thirty-three percent (33%) also say they’d definitely vote against Obama giving him a net differential of zero (33% definitely for minus 33% definitely against equals net differential of 0). All other candidates have a net differential in negative territory meaning more people are set to definitely vote against them rather than for them. Other polling during the past month found Obama’s favorability ratings have increased to the highest level of any 2008 candidate (see summary of all Democratic and Republican candidates)

A month ago, Obama had a net differential of minus 9 (28% definitely for, 37% definitely against).

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Political%20Tracking/Dailies/April%202007/fororAgainst20070417.htm

[MannyGoldstein]

1. You Are A Republican Who Hates Powerful Women

Isn't it obvious?

:sarcasm:

[flpoljunkie]

2. No, but I'm NOT. BACKING. HILLARY. Only Gingrich has higher definitely vote against %- 49%

Survey of 800 Likely Voters
April 9-12, 2008

Candidate FOR AG. Net
Obama 33% 33% Even
Giuliani 29% 34% -5
Thompson 19% 29% -10
Edwards 26% 37% -11
McCain 23% 35% -12
Romney 17% 33% -16
Clinton 30% 48% -18
Richardson10% 28% -18
Biden 9% 38% -29
Gingrich 20% 49% -29

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Political%20Tracking/Dailies/April%202007/fororAgainst20070417.htm

[Name removed]

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[Name removed]

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[skipos]

4. And all that money and name recognition still can't get Hillary decent numbers

Look at the rest of the Ras polls. I like both Obama and Edwards for different reasons, but something tells me that Edwards would do a bit better in the general election. It could be as ridiculous as Obama's name and race being "scarier" than Edwards' to a few voters.

Clinton (47%) Giuliani (48%) CLINTON LOSES BY 1%
Edwards (49%) Giuliani (43%) EDWARDS WINS BY 6%
Obama (43%) Giuliani (44%) OBAMA LOSES BY 1%

Clinton (47%) McCain (46%) CLINTON WINS BY 1%
Edwards (47%) McCain (38%) EDWARDS WINS BY 9%
Obama (46%) McCain (42% ) OBAMA WINS BY 4%

Clinton (50%) Romney (41%) CLINTON WINS BY 9%
Edwards (55%) Romney (29%) EDWARDS WINS BY 26%
Obama (51%) Romney (36%) OBAMA WINS BY 15%

Clinton (46%) Brownback (41%) CLINTON WINS BY 5%
Obama (49%) Brownback (34%) OBAMA WINS BY 15%

Clinton (50%) Gingrich (43%) CLINTON WINS BY 7%
Obama (48%) Gingrich (38%) OBAMA WINS BY 10%

Clinton (48%) Hagel (40%) CLINTON WINS BY 8%
Obama (50%) Hagel (34%) OBAMA WINS BY 16%

Clinton (43%) Thompson (44%) CLINTON LOSES BY 1%
Edwards (50%) Thompson (36%) EDWARDS WINS BY 14%
Obama (49%) Thompson (37%) OBAMA WINS BY 12%

Clinton 48% Favorable, 50% Unfavorable
Edwards 57% Favorable, 35% Unfavorable
Obama 59% Favorable, 34% Unfavorable

[rinsd]

7. Actually Hillary was outspent by Obama in the 1st Q by about $1.5M

Her problem is though her definitely vote for number is good at 30%, it hasn't moved much in a positive direction. She needs to blow people away in the 2nd Q fundraising to reassert her frontrunner status. Thankfully McCain amnemic showing so far has been taking up the campaign on the skids storyline though Hillary has taken some hits (as I predeicted) for not blowing people away in the 1st Q.

I still think she can win a general election. Actually I believe any of the big 3 can win, look at how they compare with Giuliani and he's gotten very little negative press.

[flpoljunkie]

8. Hillary Clinton also has $1.8 million in unpaid debt, compared to Obama's $190,000.

Sen. Hillary Clinton

Total receipts: $36M

Total raised: $26M

CoH total: $31M

CoH for primaries: $24M

Total raised for primaries: $19M (approx)

Disbursements: $5M

Contributors: 60,000

Debts: $1.8M

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2007/04/obama_outraises.html

[rinsd]

9. I get a smaller figure from open secrets

Not much smaller at roughly $1.6M but it is smaller.

http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/index.asp?cycle=2008

I wonder why she is carrying that debt. I tried to google for info but all that kept coming up was Vilsack.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

11. Why is Brownback doing so well?

He's a freak!

[Dawgs]

5. Great news for us Obama supporters.

[BeyondGeography]

10. Awful number for Hillary...and it corresponds to 14 years

worth of unfavorable ratings averaging in the mid-40's, so it's a result that has more credibility than anything else in this poll.

http://politicalarithmetik.blogspot.com/2006/08/hillarys-image-1993-2006.html

[benny05]

12. Interesting tidbit about Edwards

From the same piece, referenced by the Poster

Former North Carolina Senator John Edwards (D) also gained ground in April. Twenty-six percent (26%) say they’d definitely vote for him while 37% would definitely vote against. That net differential of minus 11 represents an eight-point improvement from last month and is good enough for fourth place overall. General election match-up polls now show Edwards leading all Republicans.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

13. 48% would DEFINATELY vote against HRC

No surprise there, except perhaps to DLCers who are willing to drive the party off a cliff...

[MGKrebs]

16. Actually, if enough Democrats spend all their time

attacking other Democrats in the hopes of creating enough space for yet another candidate to enter the race, it is more likely to drive the party off a cliff.

[Colobo]

14. Gobama!!!

[ThomWV]

15. That's A Funny Number

Because it occurs to me that 33% of the people would definitly vote for Bush again tomorrow too.

You see the point is that only a thrid say they would definitly vote for him means he has to be on the ballot first - and you can't get to that point with only 33% of the vote.

[mckeown1128]

17. cool...

This is great news for us all. gobama!!!