Exclusive: New Cook/RT Strategies Poll Results

[papau]

Source: Pollster.com report of Cook Report Pres. primary poll

April 30, 2007

Exclusive: New Cook/RT Strategies Poll Results

Here is something of an exclusive (for the moment - and we'll spare you the flashing red light): Our friends at the Cook Political Report have shared advanced results of the latest Cook/RT Strategies survey on 2008 presidential primary preference (conducted over the last three days, April 27-30, among 1,000 adults nationwide).

Their results for Democrats show a tightening national race in the last month. Among 389 registered voters that identify with or lean to the Democrats, the survey shows Clinton leading with 32%, followed by Obama at 24%, Edwards at 15%, Gore at 11% and all other candidates in the low single digits. Without Gore in the race, they show Clinton leading Obama by ten points (36% to 26%) trailed by Edwards at 18%.

On the previous survey (of 355 Democrats) in late March - which did not include Al Gore as a potential candidate - they showed Clinton with a 24 point lead over Obama (41% to 17%), who ran two points behind Edwards (at 19%). The nine-point increase in Obama's vote over the last month on this survey (from 17% to 26%) is statistically significant despite the small sample sizes, although the five point decline for Clinton (from 41% to 36%) is not.

For those watching, four national surveys (NBC/Wall Street Journal, USA Today/Gallup, CNN and Rasmussen) have shown a similar narrowing, while four others (ABC/Washington Post, the Pew Research Center, CBS News and Fox News/Opinion Dynamics) have not.

Read more: http://www.pollster.com/mystery_pollster/exclusive_new_cookrt_strategie.php

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Early polls mean little, and it is likely Hillary will not lead wire to wire. While a drop like Clinton over Obama 36 to 26. rather than the prior months 41 to 17. was expected, this should please the Obama supporters.

The Edwards drop from 19 to 15 was unexpected - at least by me. Maybe I'm wrong about Dem primary voters wanting specific policy proposals as Edwards is trying to do - perhaps sticking to a general theme with the ability to sell sincerity and get media will determine the order of the finish this time around,.

[Captain Hilts]

1. It's still too early. nt