American Research Group

[SoxFan]

I've seen several posts referencing a poll of NH Dems conducted by American Research Group.

Ladies and Gentlemen, ARG is a crackpot outfit.

I've been involved in NH politics for most of my adult life. I don't know a single informed activist who takes ARG seriously. Nobody has ever seen ARG's boiler room, and nobody ever recalls having received a call from ARG. ARG seems to wait until someone like Zogby releases a poll, then tweaks the numbers into whatever form gets Dick Bennett the most media attention.

It's a bogus operation.

[David Dunham]

1. I think ARG has been pretty accurate. Obama won't like them though.

[wyldwolf]

2. I don't doubt your credentials or people you know... I do doubt your conclusion

I don't know a single informed activist who takes ARG seriously... It's a bogus operation.

Here we see Ruy Teixeira's blog quoting ARG.

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/001275.php

Afterdowningstreet.org:

http://www.afterdowningstreet.org/polling

Kos at DailyKos:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/3/15/171249/691

[SoxFan]

4. None of whom are from NH

Dick Bennett is not running a legitimate polling shop.

If you want NH numbers that have some semblance of validity, there are other sources. The University of New Hampshire is legit, though they seem to have some methodological oddities that can skew the geographical balance; and Kelly Myer's RKM Research has an excellent track record in NH, especially when it comes to picking up on trends among independent voters.

[wyldwolf]

8. So? Your charge is the polling outfit isn't legit but give no evidence to support it

[SoxFan]

13. Come on, Wyldwolf

You're usually one of my favorite posters here on DU; in my former incarnation as FightinNewDem, we were often on the same side of a lot of foodfights here. But I think you've got your Hillary blinders on.

I'll be up front. I support Obama. But as of today, May 3, Clinton probably leads in New Hampshire, based on name rec and establishment support. I don't deny that, though I believe that Obama is a good fit for NH, which likes the reformer-outsider Dem, such as Carter, Hart, Tsongas, and Bradley.

I've tried to give you some examples of ARG's oddball history. It's not a firm that's taken seriously by those of us active in the NH political community. UNH is taken seriously, though they completely botched a congressional primary last year by not even including the name of the woman who is now in Congress. Suffolk, though failry new to NH polling, is recognized as a legit shop. RKM, run by former UNH survey center director Kelly Myers, is very good, and, in my opinion, probably the most reliable source of presidential numbers. SurveyUSA has started polling here, and while they get flack for their use of autocalls, they aren't considered methodologically unsound. ARG, by contrast, is seen by nearly everyone, D, R, L and I, as being flaky.

[wyldwolf]

15. now let's be fair...

You've given generalities and vague accounts of personal experiences. I have no doubt you believe what you say to be true, but why would you expect anyone else to believe based on what you've presented so far?

This is what we've seen in the last week here from Obama supporters - Rasmussen, the only poll which has Obama leading Clinton nationally, is being hailed as the most accurate poll there is. Suddenly ARG, which has Clinton over Obama in NH, can't be trusted.

Gotta admit it sounds fishy.

[rinsd]

3. Here's some other polls from NH

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1277

"She has made a strong move since January polling, edging fellow Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois to gain a narrow 29% to 23% lead. Clinton added two points since last month, and nine percentage points to her column since Zogby’s January New Hampshire primary election survey in January, while Obama stayed steady. Former Sen. John Edwards also gained since last month, winning 23% support in the latest poll, as everyone else in the field faded almost from view."

http://www.wmur.com/politics/10945818/detail.html

"Hillary Clinton is also very popular -- 74 percent of likely Democratic primary voters have a favorable opinion of her, 15 percent are unfavorable, 9 percent are neutral, and 1 percent don't know her. Her net favorability rating is +59 percent."

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/02/07/schneider.nh.pol... (same poll as right above with more info)

"Hillary Clinton is still in first place among New Hampshire Democratic primary voters with 35 percent naming her as their top choice. But Barack Obama has vaulted into the number two spot with 21 percent, and former Sen. John Edwards is at number three at 16 percent."

Not sure about ARG's accuracy

http://www.ourcampaigns.com/PollingFirmDetail.html?PollingFirmID=7

[valerief]

5. ARGhhhh! That's all. nt

[SaveElmer]

6. Is this you?

Or is this where you found your criticism of ARG from? Language seems pretty similar to your original post...

The big mystery with ARG is whether Dock Bennett actually polls at all. Nobody I know in NH political circles has ever met a single person who received a call from caller. No one has ever seen Dick Bennett's boiler room. No one has ever seen Bennett's cross tabs. There's something about the whole outfit that doesn't pass the smell test.

Posted by: ManchVegas Politico | January 2, 2007 10:53 PM

Do you have any actual evidence that ARG is 1.) A bogus operation, seeing as people like Kos, Texeira, Mystery Pollster, and major news organizations believe them to be legitimate...and 2.) That they are simply tweaking polls released from other organizations...

http://www.pollster.com/mystery_pollster/daily_roundup_122906.php

[SoxFan]

7. Not me, but...

I share the sentiment.

Markos, Ruy, MP and the others are all out of state. They aren't in the gossip loop up here.

Consider this. ARG has been polling in NH for 20 plus years. However, no media outlet ever retains the firm's services. WMUR-TV and NHPTV use the UNH Survey Center; WBZ-TV uses RKM Research; the Concord Monitor goes with Survey USA; and WHDH-TV employs Suffolk University.

In 1990, a Democratic US Senate campaign hired ARG to perform a one-shot poll. Naturally, the poll showed this candidate (who I supported, incidentally) with a commanding lead in the primary race. ARG went on to release other polls that cycle that showed this same candidate with overly high numbers. Bennett never disclosed the relationship between his firm and the campaign. It was a shady maneuver that cast real doubt on the company.

[wyldwolf]

9. Markos, Ruy, MP and the others transcend state borders

They have readers who are active in NH. Is there any instance where anyone from NH spoke up and told them the polling company was bogus? None I'm aware of.

Fact is, people find all kinds of reasons to credit or discredit polling companies. Your belief is new to me, but doesn't surprise me.

[TwilightGardener]

10. I have questioned their validity in the past as well, and got shut down here.

I could find very little about them, aside from the fact that they are based in NH--seemed fishy to me.

[rinsd]

11. Questions..

"In 1990, a Democratic US Senate campaign hired ARG to perform a one-shot poll."

What do you mean one shot poll? Internal polling. A poll for public release?

"Naturally, the poll showed this candidate (who I supported, incidentally) with a commanding lead in the primary race."

What was the candidate's name as perhaps other polls can be used for comparison.

"ARG went on to release other polls that cycle that showed this same candidate with overly high numbers."

To the public? To news organizations? to whom were the poll results released?

"Bennett never disclosed the relationship between his firm and the campaign."

Not even for the first poll?

"It was a shady maneuver that cast real doubt on the company."

That would depend. Did they priginally disclose they were hired by acampaign for the 1st poll. Did the camapign pay them for other polls?

[SoxFan]

12. 1990 Senate race

The Democratic candidates were John Durkin, Jim Donchess, and John Rauh. Durkin's campaign commissioned the ARG poll.

It's been 17 years, so the details aren't as crisp as they once were, but as I recall, Durkin's campaign manager paid for a poll early in the campaign. The initial poll was released to the public, but I don't remember if it was billed as a Durkin campaign poll. Subsequent polls were not billed as such. There was an unstated understanding that if Durkin paid for an early poll, ARG would be favorable towards him in their later surveys.

Bennett has apparently pulled similar pay-for-play stunts with other campaigns, including that of former GOP congressman Charlie Bass.

[rinsd]

14. Certainly understand details being sketchy 15+ years later

I was just curious.

Thank you for sharing.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

16. Sounbs like ARG

literally works out of someone's basement- next to the boiler room.

[SoxFan]

17. Behave!

:spray:

Actually, they are located in a small office in a commercial building in downtown Manchester.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

18. But you said:

'nobody ever recalls having received a sinlge call from ARG'.
Sounds to me like (as a polling org.) they don't exist.

[SoxFan]

19. ARG

The company exists, in the sense that there is a firm called "American Research Group" with an office on Elm St. in Manchester. Whether or not that company produces legitimate numbers is another question altogether. There is considerable speculation that ARG's numbers are sometimes pure hocus-pocus. As I said, no one ever seems to receive a call from these guys.