Poll: Edwards leads Hillary by 6 in North Carolina...Obama by 13...

[SaveElmer]

Edwards 33
Hillary 27
Obama 20

Kind of a weak showing in his home state...actually just barely within MoE of 3.9%...though I don't doubt Edwards is actually leading...

http://www.wlb.com/articles/PPP_Release_050707.pdf

[mnhtnbb]

1. I'll take it.

[BeyondGeography]

2. And Edwards' supporters swear he'll win NC in the general

if we just nominate him.

Compare his home state numbers to HRC in NY and Obama in IL (not to mention Edwards as VP leading us to a 12-point defeat in NC in '04), and you'll see why we're skeptical:

IL

Democrats
Obama 52.6
Clinton 24.6
Edwards 9.5
Richardson 2.4
Biden 2.3
Kucinich 1.25
Dodd 0.53
Undecided 6.9

http://thecapitolfaxblog.com/2007/04/30/obamarama-new-illinois-poll-shows-obama-lead-here-outstrips-hillarys-in-ny-wide-open-republican-race/

NY

Obama 17
Clinton 39
Edwards 11
Richardson 4
Dodd 0

http://www.siena.edu/SRI/results/2007/07_Apr_NYPoll.htm

[calteacherguy]

4. That's a very instructive comparison.

It does give one pause that Edwards' numbers are so weak in his home state. We must ask ourselves why, it would seem to me.

[Clark2008]

8. I know why.

His constituents didn't feel he was ever around to represent them. They called him Senator Gone - even the Democrats did.

[CTLawGuy]

5. you mean just like in 2004?

HA!

[draft_mario_cuomo]

14. He'd win the swing states and currently flips even Kentucky and Virginia

He is the only candidate who flips actual red states, not just states that Bush barely won.

[Tejanocrat]

3. Why is that a weak result? It seems stronger than HRC's favorable/unfavorable New York polling

as compared to Obama's and Edwards's higher favorable/unfavorable ratings among New York voters as published by Siena College: http://www.siena.edu/SRI/results/2007/07_Apr_NYPoll.htm

As it see it, HRC, Obama, and Edwards are all doing quite well.

[mnhtnbb]

6. The anti-Edwards crowd is never happy. 6 points up over Hillary,

13 points up over Obama and you're cryin' the blues.

OK. NC education. Hillary and Obama are farther to the right on the Dem scale
than Edwards. Although NC has more registered Dems than Repubs

http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/voterreg/other/party.htm

they tend to be on the less liberal side. Hence,the appeal of Hillary and Obama. This is one reason the state hasn't gone Dem in a presidential election since Jimmy Carter (Take note, Hillary supporters), but does have a Dem governor, Dem State House, and with the 2006 election a majority of Dem Congressional reps. However, times they are a' changin'. That said, Edwards did very
well when he ran against the incumbent Republican for his Senate seat.
He won by almost 9%. He was NOT tied to a Massachusetts liberal who
ran a terrible campaign--and basically wrote off NC even though it has
a huge military population that Kerry should have engaged.

Election fraud and shenanigans: Kerry/Edwards had polled within the margin of error against Bush/Cheney the week prior to the election. Exit polls confirmed
that margin on election day, but mysteriously the percentage changed to match
the previous election in 2000 when the votes were counted. We know voting
machines LOST votes in at least one county. There was a close race for Senate
between Erskine Bowles ( Bill Clinton's chief of staff) and Burr, who won.
Is it possible there was some more vote counting irregularities in NC?
We'll never know.

[skipos]

7. I like Edwards but I doubt he would win NC

In presidential elections NC is usually votes 14% more Repub than the national average. Edwards go @ a 4% boost in 2004, making NC only 10% more Repub than the national average. Usually, Presidential candidates get a 10%, leaving NC a little out of reach for in a close election.

However, ones performance in a primary doesn't exactly indicate how they would perform in the GE. Any Dem could win 100% of the primary votes in Alabama, but they aren't going to win it in the general election.

[mnhtnbb]

9. If a Dem presidential candidate would come pay attention to NC,

the Dems who've been voting Dem statewide just might vote Dem in the presidential
race.

TOTAL Registered Voters NC Oct '06

Dems 2,533,424
Repubs 1,923,047
Unaffil 1,110,953

http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/voterreg/other/party.htm

John Edwards Senate win '98

US Senate - (1)
(D) Edwards, John 1,029,237 3323 Alleghany Dr. Raleigh 27609
(R) Faircloth, Lauch 945,943 P.O. Box 496 Clinton 28329
(L) Howe, Barbara 36,963 5049 P Lucy Avarette Rd. Oxford 27565

http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/98generl/totals.pdf


Comparing North Carolina to Alabama really says you aren't very familiar with either state.

I can promise that I'm looking forward to a giant "I told you so" on DU
the day after John Edwards takes NC in the 2008 race, and becomes President-elect.

[skipos]

10. Lay off the condescension please

I wasn't comparing Alabama to NC, and you have no idea what I know and what I don't.

In 1996 Clinton and Gore (two southerners) still had NC voting 13% more Repub than the national average.
In 2000 NC voted 13% more Republican than the national average
In 2004 NC voted 10% more Republican than the national average. You could probably attribute the improvement to Edwards, but he has a long way to go to flip NC. Even Clinton, with comfortable electoral victories, never won NC. Further, Presidential candidates usually get around a 10% boost in their homestate, which won't be enough. If Edwards was insanely popular in NC (like Warner is in VA, like Richardson is in NM) he could do it. I don't see any evidence that Edwards is insanely popular in NC.

Edwards might even be my 2008 pick, and he might win NC, but it will be very, very hard IMO.

[kwolf68]

11. Im familiar with both states

And while Alabama is far more whacked out, North Carolina is NOT an easy get for ANY Democrat.

The Dems could win it, but it will be damn tough.

[Tejanocrat]

13. Can Obama win NC with his gun control positions? What are HRC's favorable/unfavorable ratings in NC?

I agree that NC is a tough nut to crack, but if Edwards can't crack it then HRC and Obama are in dire trouble there.

[mnhtnbb]

12. For more info on NC demographics, history, voting patterns

http://www.southnow.org/southnow-publications/north-carolina-datanet


I would like to draw attention to one statistic. Frequently, on these
boards anti-Edwards folks assert that there's no way Edwards would
have won re-election to the Senate. Interestingly, he had
a 56% positive vs. 37% negative approval rating as Senator in a poll
dated 07/04. That suggests that he might have won re-election to me.
This table is on p. 5 of the citation above, the article on 2204 NC
Election Primer


US Senator/Term Date1 Pollster2 % Pos.3 % Neg.4
Ervin, D-3 1964 LHP 55 22
Helms, R-2 10/83 CP 46 42
Helms, R-3 10/87 MD 39 55
Sanford, D 2/89 N&O 40 45
Helms, R-4 10/92 MD 44 55
Sanford, D 4/92 MD 41 56
Faircloth, R 9/96 MD 46 47
Helms, R-4 10/96 N&O 50 40
Edwards, D 10/99 CP 36 27
Helms, R-5 10/99 CP 45 43
Dole, R 4/03 EU 48 39
Edwards, D 7/04 R2 56 37
1 Month and year the poll was conducted.
2 Pollster = who conducted the poll: CP - Carolina Poll (UNCCH);
EU - Elon University Poll; LHP - Louis Harris Poll;
MD - Mason-Dixon Poll; N&O - News & Observer/FGI Poll;
R2 - Research 2000 Poll.
3 % Pos. = % of the respondents giving the senator positive
marks for his or her performance - approve, excellent, good, etc.
4 % Neg. = % of respondents giving the senator negative marks
for his or her job performance - disapprove, fair/poor, etc.



There is always the glass is half full or half empty point of view.
There is no doubt the demographics of NC are changing, and that it's very difficult to predict outcomes. The fact remains that there are 600,000
more registered Dems in NC than Republicans, and we have more than a million unaffiliated voters. The Republicans have been better at mobilizing their
base in NC. Can the Dems do better? Do we have the issues to mobilize
Dem voters? IMO the answer is yes to both questions, and it's worth
the effort to make it happen.