Economy: April Retail Sales Worst Ever Recorded

[unlawflcombatnt]

Retailers post weak April sales

Sales by retail stores had one of their worst months ever in April. Though analysts had expected April retail sales to be be "disappointing," they were even worse than expected. The UBS-International Council of Shopping Centers sales tally of 53 stores posted its biggest ever recorded decline. The -2.4% decline was the worst since these statistics started being recorded in 1970. Almost all stores posted declines in same store sales.

Wal-Mart reported a -3.5% decline, it's worst month ever recorded. The list of losers was extensive.

Target posted a -6.1% decline in same-store sales.

Federated, which controls both Macy's and Bloomingdale's, reported a -2.2 decline in same-store sales.

Penney's same-store sales declined -4.7%, far more than the -0.8% decline predicted.

Gap's same-store sales declined a whopping -16%, over twice as much as the predicted -7.1% predicted.

Limited Brands same-store sales declined -1%, in contrast to the +1% gain predicted.

Abercrombie & Fitch's same-store sales declined a whopping -15%, more than 3 times the -4.7% predicted.

This information can be found in the Yahoo News article
Retailers post weak April sales

unlawflcombatnt

Economic Populist Forum

[LisaM]

1. Wow. Interestingly, I didn't shop much last month

For a variety of reasons, part of which is the stores are full of really cheap CRAP. I don't want to buy anything made in China, after the pet food incident. But seriously, there isn't a lot of good quality stuff to even BUY, just a bunch of cheap imported stuff.

[Warpy]

2. All the stores are full of the same junk made by the same

off shore vendors. There might be minimal variations in cut from low price to high price, but the material is the same (crummy) and the overall designs are the same (boring or slutwear) and none of it will last through a dozen washings.

The only part I like is that they're no longer sewing labels into knit shirt neckbands. Those things always made me itch ferociously. I much prefer the transfers.

[loudsue]

8. Boy, I second THAT remark! It's all JUNK, and the styles SUCK.

I can't BELIEVE how unattractive "styles" are now. The clothes don't have any fabric to speak of, the workmanship is pitiful, and it all looks like yard-sale rejects...the stuff you have left over after a yard sale. Actually, when things were made better, even the stuff left over after a yard sale looks better than the "new" stuff the stores sell now.

I'm tired of the "globalized" crap they've been shoving down our throats. Even the boutiques (i.e., non-mall stores) don't have anything decent.

I think the days of buying more & more crap are gone. When everyone in the country was making money and could get a job whenever they wanted one, and when people were actually getting paid enough to live on, we could buy things. I don't even get in the car to go anywhere if I don't absolutely have to anymore.

I'll bet if they showed the figures for FOOD stores, they would have shown where all our money is going these days. Food and gas and heath-care cost a FORTUNE.

Hopefully there will be a revolution soon.

:kick::kick::kick:

[spooky3]

21. ugly, unflattering merchandise--PLUS high mortgage/rent

in many cities--there just isn't much left over after people pay for the essentials, and there's nothing to entice anyone over the age of 18 to buy clothes.

Several middle aged friends who CAN afford it (since they bought their houses before the price escalation) say their clothes are wearing out because they can't find anything appropriate for their professional jobs, to replace them. Styles are made for teenage tastes and teenage bodies. They look awful on anyone else.

[GainesT1958]

4. And most of does, indeed look alike...

Probably because it's made in the same Chinese factories. Or Viet Nam, or Malaysia, or Bangladesh.

Good to see Mal-Wart's decline--nobody deserves it more. The sad thing is, their management will take it out on their "associates", by laying them off.

I suspect people are getting tired of the Gap and A&F, especially considering the fact that their clothing is not really even attractive anymore--let alone "edgy". And certainly not durable. But definitely overpriced. Too many retailers think our wage rates are still running way ahead of inflation--when of course we've been losing ground to it for quite awhile.

I've noticed several "specialty" furniture and gift stores in the area close in just the past three months. Some were chains who pulled in their horns to the larger urban markets; some were stores who couldn't make it in a particular location; some couldn't make it, period.

When people are awash in debt, their buying power plummets. It's not a matter of "when" the next recession officially starts; it's a matter of "how soon".

B-)

[unlawflcombatnt]

5. Yes

"When people are awash in debt, their buying power plummets. It's not a matter of "when" the next recession officially starts; it's a matter of "how soon"."

That's exactly right. Consumer spending has been exceeding consumer income for over 2 years. Now that the housing bubble is bursting, and homes are declining in value, consumers have less home equity to borrow of off. And since real wages have increased only slightly more than 1% during the entire Bush presidency, there is simply no source of increased spending power to drive the economy. This is now showing up in declining retail sales. And this will get worse as more companies lay off workers due to declining labor demand.

unlawflcombatnt

Economic Populist Forum

[distantearlywarning]

40. I totally agree with this sentiment.

And the others expressed in this portion of the thread. I haven't been clothes shopping in literally years because I am sick to death of crappy "mystery fabric" clothing that only looks good on a 12 year old (slutty) girl. The few items I have bought have looked terrible after one season.

What happened to buying good quality and having things last for a while? I have no intention of replacing my wardrobe every season with a whole bunch more crappy, trashy, polyester rubbish, so I'm hanging on to my good stuff as long as I can.

Just the other day, I realized that I have to buy a new suit so I can look professional while speaking at conferences this year. I went down to Macy's and tried on every suit in the store. Not only are they all cut for boy-figured women (dear fashion designers, here's a hint: a size 14 suit should not just be a bigger version of a size 2 suit), they were all made of clingy, awful, cheap, polyester fabric. I was looking for light wool or some "real" fabric and was willing to pay for it. But they didn't have a single acceptable item. Not one. At this point, I'm at a loss. I don't think my current suit will make it another season, and I refuse to spend $250+ for a mystery-fabric-cut-for-12-year-old suit. Where should I go to find a store that sells professional clothing in non-slutty, non-polyester fabrics and knows how to tailor for all body types? I need a suggestion...

But anyway, yes, that's the primary reason I don't buy as much clothing as I used to. And I'm not even going to get into the furniture issue. We had to buy a dining room set for a new house last month - I couldn't find a single piece that wasn't laminate that didn't cost $5000. I'm not kidding. Only the extremely rich get to buy wood furniture anymore apparently. We eventually ended up buying a set at an unfinished furniture store and will finish it ourselves. It was the only way we could get actual real materials instead of sawdust covered by plastic.

[Dulcinea]

46. Are there any consignment stores near you?

You can usually find something pretty nice, if you don't mind something "gently worn." I've been shopping at my local consignment store, plus eBay. I rarely go to the mall anymore for all the reasons you mentioned! You'd think retailers would realize that WOMEN need clothes too!

My personal pet peeve is jeans. I refuse to buy jeans that aren't real denim! I loathe that cheap crappy fabric that jeans are made from nowadays. I can only seem to find real denim jeans on eBay.

[kestrel91316]

3. Well, At least now I know it's not ME. My business income has totally

tanked the last couple of months, also.

[unlawflcombatnt]

6. California Mall Traffic Down

I just came back from a historically crowded mall in Southern California. I hadn't been there in over 6 months. In the past it had usually been so crowded it was hard to walk through it. There was no such problem tonight. It had less than half the normal traffic. One of the largest stores was closed. Several of the smaller ones were having "going out of business" sales.

It's slowing down everywhere.

unlawflcombatnt

Economic Populist Forum

[Lasher]

10. The middle class is running out of money

How many pairs of socks does one rich person need?

[unlawflcombatnt]

24. Yes

You're right about the middle class running out of money. Real wages have increased only 1.3% since Bush stole his first presidential election. In 2005 and 2006, personal consumption expenditures exceeded personal income. This can only happen if borrowing ability is increased. And this increase was largely from home equity extraction. With home equity extraction declining, and real wages having declined for the last 6 months, there is no way consumer spending can be maintained at its current level, much less increase. Every source of consumer spending is shrinking.

The only things increasing are Corporate profits and media propaganda.

unlawflcombatnt

Economic Populist Forum

[PsycheCC]

7. Sorry to hear about your business. Things don't look

good for the consumer since home equity spending appears to be just about tapped out. Hope you can hang in there.

[paulk]

15. I did pretty well in April

that's 'cause everything in my store is 50 - 75% OFF because I'm going out of business!



It's not just you - there are now over twenty empty store fronts in the four blocks from me heading into downtown. The economy is tanking, and I fully expect a recession this summer - a real recession, not this papered over with numbers one we've been having the last seven years.

Good luck!

[Clark2008]

27. And you're a veterinarian, aren't you?

That's sad... people can't afford to take their pets to the vet, despite the pet food scare. :(

[formercia]

9. The local Wally World is almost empty

Been there a couple of times in the last couple of months. Both times the store seemed almost empty of customers. I thought it was a slow time of day. Most of the registers were closed and the ones open had no lines.

It used to be difficult to find a parking spot near the entrance, now, the parking lot is 1/4 full at best.

Big trouble ahead.

[unlawflcombatnt]

19. Boomer's traffic down

I've also noticed a decline in traffic at the local Boomer's amusement park (baseball batting cages, miniature gold, & go-carts. There used to be no parking places on weekends. Now there are parking places on weekends which hasn't been true for many years.

Also worth mentioning is that they've done practically 0 repair work in the last year. Apparently they don't anticipate any increase in returns from further capital investment.

And I think they're right.

unlawflcombatnt

Economic Populist Forum

[formercia]

26. People have less disposable income

and putting it on a credit card is a losing proposition.

[Wednesdays]

11. It won't get better, either...

what with the gas prices going up and all.

[Vinca]

12. Well . . . DUH!

Who can afford to shop???? I'm searching yard sales and thrift stores for my needs (found a GREAT sewing machine for $18.00).

[MUAD_DIB]

13. Hmmmmmmm..... What happens in mid April?....

Tax Time!

Everybody had to give it up for Emperor Monkeynutz to continue his fekking war.

Of course people don't have $. Higher energy and food prices are really hurting Americans.


How about you?

[Warpy]

14. Most working stiffs get nailed by withholding

and get a fat check from Uncle Sugar every year to make them feel better about paying through the nose for practically nothing besides a bloated military and a nice, fat overclass.

Home heating costs have gone down this time of year and there is still merchandise left over from Xmas at bargain prices to lure them into the malls. They're just not going.

It's not tax time, it's gas prices combined with wages that are going nowhere but down in terms of purchasing power.

They're all hoping they can make last year's cheap clothing work and their kids are wearing hand me downs from family and friends with older kids.

[MUAD_DIB]

16. Although I do not have the qualitative info to back it up, I still have

a feeling that tax time has not been kind to America this year.

I agree with your assessment about energy + wages, but that goes along with what I wrote before.
America is hurting.


Thank *, in part, for that for hiding/ignoring the truth.




Spellin edit. :crazy:

[Clark2008]

28. My taxes are higher - I got remarried last year.

I thought the RepubliCONs were all about getting rid of "marriage penalties." I guess that only works if you make a fortune to begin with.

[Manifestor_of_Light]

20. Good for you!! I've got LOTS and LOTS of material and patterns.

I inherited my mother's sewing stuff, and after tossing the rotten fabric and thread, I still have a ton of yard goods, patterns, and notions.

Not to mention a mere FOUR old all steel Singer sewing machines. And assorted buttonholers and rufflers and attachments I don't need. I know how to sew and do so occasionally.

I need to sell this stuff.

Does ANYBODY sew anymore???

[Clark2008]

29. I don't make clothes, but I sure as hell darn them and repair them

It's much cheaper than running out to buy new things.

I can sew, I just simply don't have time. I work 50 hours a week, have an 8 year old (he'll be 8 Monday, his party's today) and a baby on the way. I also have three four-legged babies to take care of.

I would sew if I could stay at home, but, alas, I can't with this child. I was able to take two years off with my son, but those days are over. My son was born under the last vestages of the Clinton Administration when the average person could afford to do things like that for a short time.

[Manifestor_of_Light]

38. Well I have lots of time on my hands because I'm unemployed.

I stopped looking for work, realized I was fucked over by the rich, I was no longer in the middle class, and couldn't get a good job anyway, so I am calling it "early retirement".

Gotta move to the country due to the horrendous property taxes in the city.

[unlawflcombatnt]

17. GDP Growth Reduced to 0.96% for 1st quarter

Following yesterday's release of the Trade Deficit, which showed over a $10 billion greater 1st quarter deficit than originally predicted, the revised estimate of 1st quarter GDP declines to +0.96 from the initial guesstimate of +1.3%.

(Final numbers for the Trade Balance are not even available when the BEA makes its first guess at the quarterly GDP. In this case, they under-guesstimated the balance at -$712 billion, and had to revise it to -$722.644 billion. This subtracts $10.644 billion from total current-dollar GDP. Adjusted for inflation, this subtracts $8.8 billion from real GDP. Subtracting $8.8 billion from the previous 1st quarter GDP growth estimate of $36.1 billion gives $27.3 billion. Multiplying this times 4 gives an annualized GDP increase of $109.2 billion, or $0.109 trillion. Dividing $0.109 trillion by 2006's real GDP of $11.415 trillion gives an increase of .0096, or 0.96%. The previous estimate of 1st quarter GDP can be found at the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Table 3. (Notice the trade balance figure of only $712 billion.) The current numbers for the Trade Balance can be found at the Census Bureau. (Note the new 1st quarter Trade Balance of -$180.661, which comes out to an annualized -$722.644 billion)

Many economists think it will be revised even lower. JP Morgan predicts a downward revision to +0.8%. Economist Nouriel Roubini predicts a further downward revision of 1st quarter GDP growth to +0.7%, with a 2nd quarter GDP growth of 0.0%, or even a negative.

unlawflcombatnt

Economic Populist Forum

[unlawflcombatnt]

18. Retail Sales Report, 5/11/07

Today's Retail Sales report from the Census Bureau showed a -0.2% decline in Retail Sales from March to April. (This can also be seen at Briefing.com's http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/retail.htm">Retail Sales report.) This was much worse than the +0.6% predicted increase. April's seasonally-adjusted $372.034 billion was -$0.843 billion less than March's $372.876 billion. This contrasts with the previous year's March-to-April increase of +$3.352 billion. These numbers are all in current, non-inflation adjusted dollars. Adjusting Retail Sales by April's Consumer Price Index increase of 0.6%, the April Retail Sales number declines to $369.815. This leaves an inflation-adjusted decline of -$3.060 billion. This leaves a 1-month "real" decline in Retail Sales of -0.8%.

The degree of decline in April Retail Sales is NOT typical. April 2006's seasonally-adjusted Retail Sales increased over March 2006. This year's figures showed an atypical decline. This can best be seen from the bar graph below from Briefing.com.




The long-term downward trend in Retail Sales can be seen from the line graph below from Briefing.com.




The biggest decline was in Building Materials, which declined -2.3% (in current, non-inflation adjusted dollars). Apparel sales declined -2.0% in current dollars.General Merchandise sales declined -1.2%. Autos and auto parts sales declined -1.0%.

The biggest contribution to the Retail Sales total is from Motor Vehicles and Parts, which account for roughly 20% of the total. Food & Beverage Stores account for 12.8% of the total, while Food Services & Drinking Places account for 10% of the total. Thus the total food-related contribution is almost 23%. General Merchandise Store sales account for 12.7%, while Miscellaneous Store Retailers and Non-store Retailers account for 2.76% and 6.5% respectively. Thus the total for all "General Merchandise" is 22%.

Gasoline Station Sales account for 9.4% of the total. Building Materials account for 7.7% of the total. Health Care expenses account for 5.3% of the total. Clothing & Accessories account for 5.0% of the total.

unlawflcombatnt

Economic Populist Forum

[Fierce]

22. Some of us have stopped buying crap made in China.

Amazing how much money that saves...

[unlawflcombatnt]

23. Excellent Idea

Even if Chinese goods are cheaper initially, they break down or wear out so fast that there's NO cost savings to consumers. But a lot more headaches.

unlawflcombatnt

Economic Populist Forum

[Clark2008]

30. EXACTLY!!!

That's what I tell everyone I know who shops at Wally World. I ask them why and they say, of course, that it saves them money. So then I point out how it doesn't save them money in the long run because the items they're purchasing don't last as long and they have to replace them at twice the rate.

My mother, bless her heart, lost her TennCare and can't afford private insurance because of pre-existing diabetes and blood pressure conditions. She doesn't work (well, she does, she watches my brood and I pay her for it) and her husband isn't offered health care at his job. The states says they make too much money (yeah, right :eyes: ) for Medicaid and they aren't old enough for Medicare. She has to go to Wally World for the $4 prescriptions to hang on another six years until she's old enough for Medicare. Sigh.

Sad, sad, sad.

[Skittles]

25. add me to that list

I am making a concentrated effort to not buy crap from overseas - I have long been sick of our jobs being pimped off to the lowest bidders

[unlawflcombatnt]

37. Buying Domestic

Some manufacturers are getting very deceptive about where their products are made. Some items, like staplers, will have the American location of their parent company displayed boldly on the product. Meanwhile, if you dig a little and search the item extensively, you often find that it was made in China.

[Lost4words]

33. I avoid products made by prisoners. Pardon me but didnt we have

a THING about communist countries awhile back?

[unlawflcombatnt]

34. Yes-the North Korean Free Trade Atrocity

We certainly did. It appears now, however, that if communist countries can provide American Corporations with cheap, easily exploitable labor, then their "communism" becomes less of a problem. In fact, it becomes a real asset since workers in Communist countries have no rights and are paid almost nothing.

The worst example of this is the Korean Free Trade "Agreement" ("Atrocity" seems like a better description.) In the de-militarized zone there is an area called the Kaesong (or Gaesong) industrial park. There are multiple production facilities in this area owned by (mainly) South Korean Corporations, but are allowed to employ impoverished North Korean workers. These workers are almost literally slaves. They are kept under guard and cannot leave the compound. They make $50/month working 48-hour workweeks. That comes out to 26 cents/hour.


I think it was Kruschev who said something like "the capitalists will sell us the very rope to hang themselves with." We're well on our way to proving him right.

[Selatius]

44. It's about as close to reviving slavery that American industrialists are likely to get

Unless they somehow manage to privatize the entire American prison complex and turn the prisoners into forced laborers.

[gasperc]

31. Retailers should go whoop ass on the oil companies

All the retailers should unite and start screaming holy hell at the oil and gas companies for the billions of dollars that are being extracted from the consumer's disposable income. Either this is deliberate by the Bush administration and a collusionary act to intentionally slow down the economy or the super wealthy could give a crap about the consumers that they need to buy their crap and keep them in business.

[Clark2008]

32. And they should demand American-made products while they're

at it.

[candice]

35. Chinese and other "free-trade" products costs almost nothing to make...

...other than the materials and the shipping (labor is incidental), but the big-run up is in advertising so that the cheaply made good has status appeal.

I'm buying as little as possible (nothing that I don't really need). It is so liberating and gives one a sense of hope, even if we don't have communities, public transit, affordable health care or housing or much in terms of guaranteed retirement, we can control discretionary spending.

[unlawflcombatnt]

36. Labor Costs = Labor Income

Due to the labor costs being 'incidental', it makes Chinese consumer income 'incidental' as well. Which means all of their new employment (from outsourced American jobs) won't provide enough income to buy any American products. The buying power of low income Chinese workers will never make up for the lost buying power of displaced American workers.

[kineneb]

42. thus killing the goose that lays the golden eggs

(goose=US middle class, golden eggs=consumer purchases)

I keep mumbling to myself and friends that if all the good-paying jobs are offshored, there won't be anyone left that can afford to buy the damned imported crap.

Corporate short-term thinking strikes again: make big profits Now, not noticing that in several years no one will be able to buy your product. Then what happens? Rely on the 1% at the top? They won't buy enough of your cheap crap.

[unlawflcombatnt]

43. Shout instead of mumble

I think you should "shout" instead of "mumble". If consumers don't have any money, they can't purchase production. Most consumer spending is financed by wages (and most recently home equity extraction.) If high wage workers are replaced with low wage workers, especially those in a different consumer market, it reduces the dollar value of the consumer market, and it reduces the sale of consumer goods in that market.

For some reason, this concept is just beyond the grasp of Right-Wingers and NeoCon-Artists.

An economy can't survive on investment capital alone. Someone has to buy the production, or no one makes any money.

[Norrin Radd]

39. We get stuff cheaper online.

I haven't purchased clothes for six years, anyway, because men's clothes on the racks are always way too large in size. I air dry everything in hopes that they don't fall apart.

[unlawflcombatnt]

41. Excellent Thinking

Air drying certainly does prolong the life of clothes. That's even more true if you're drying them on high in a dryer.

I've probably bought $50-worth of clothes over the last 2 years. And, like you, I purchase most non-food items online.

unlawflcombatnt

Economic Populist Forum

[momster]

45. Patronize a Tailor/Seamstress

You can choose the fabric, the cut, the buttons. If you want to replicate an old suit, they can do that. They are really no more expensive than buying so 'name' or 'designer' suit made by sweatshop workers. You are respecting the talents of an independent worker.

As for children's clothes, there's a company called American Classic Clothing where the merchandise is made by local women looking to support their families. I bought my daughter many things there before she outgrew their sizing. They aren't selling the hoochie mama clothes for little girls either but quality, classy clothes. Can you believe there's actually a clothing company for little girls called "Trashy Girls"?

[unlawflcombatnt]

48. That's an interesting idea

Are there any American Classic Clothing stores in Southern California?

A lot of people might dislike this idea, but I'd suggest buying clothes at Goodwill, the Salvation Army, or other thrift stores. The clothes are rarely exactly what you want, but often will do given the price. Such clothes are an especially good purchase if you anticipate the clothes wearing out or being torn up while working. When I worked in a shipyard as a shipfitter, I always wore $1-$2/pair pants. I knew they'd get holes burned in them from welding and would probably only last a couple of weeks. So the low price saved a lot of money.

Buying at thrift store clothes is also a nice way to recycle.

Let's not forget that it is consumer demand that drives prices upward. If everyone bought less new clothes, it would ultimately cause prices to decline (prices are "sticky," however, and it might take considerable time before prices actually fell in response to declining demand.)

[momster]

50. American Classic Clothing

I'm not sure if this is a national chain or what but here's the local info:

American Classic Clothes
In The White Flint Mall
11301 Rockville Pike #218
Kensington, MD 20895
Phone: [phone] Fax: [phone]
Hours: M-Sat. 10-6 Sun. 12-5 (EST naturally)

I believe they have a catalog (not fancy but workable). (Edit) The Website is www.americanclassicclothes.com

I like shopping at Goodwill and other thrift places too, but unfortunately an awful lot of what they sell in '70's and '80's polyester crap that makes me itch just thinking about it. Plus the women's styles are so far out of the mode that you look like you've raided Mom's closet. However, sometimes you can find a church or other charity thrift shop in an upscale area that will carry very gently used clothes from people wealthier than you who can't bear the thought of wearing things more than a few times. There's a great one in Chevy Chase, MD where I have found some sharp pieces.

[tsuki]

47. Okay, what are the oil companies up? eoq

[Imagevision]

49. Gas prices going to $4.00+ is really going to help this mess Bush has led us into!

[unlawflcombatnt]

51. Reduced Consumer Spending

It'll reduce money consumers have to spend on merchandise. It'll hit the poorest consumers hardest.

On a positive note, maybe it'll reduce traffic in some of the more crowded areas.