Edwards Would Tie Giuliani in Virginia

[JohnLocke]

Edwards Would Tie Giuliani in Virginia
Angus Reid Global Monitor
Wednesday, May 9, 2007
----
Many adults in the Old Dominion State would support Republican Rudy Giuliani in next year’s United States presidential election, according to a poll by SurveyUSA released by WDBJ-TV. 53 per cent of respondents in Virginia would vote for the former New York City mayor, while 38 per cent would support Illinois senator Barack Obama.
In other contests, Giuliani leads New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton by four points, and is tied with former North Carolina senator John Edwards with 45 per cent. Former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore is seeking the Republican presidential nomination.
In 2004, Republican George W. Bush carried Virginia’s 13 electoral votes, with 54 per cent of all cast ballots. No Democrat has carried the Old Dominion State since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.

If there were an election for president of the United States today, and the only two names on the ballot were (the following) who would you vote for?

Rudy Giuliani (R) 49% - 44% Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)
Rudy Giuliani (R) 45% - 45% John Edwards (D)
Rudy Giuliani (R) 53% - 38% Barack Obama (D)

Source: SurveyUSA/WDBJ-TV
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 512, 512 and 505 registered Virginia voters, conducted from Apr. 13 to Apr. 15, 2007. Margin of error is 4.4 per cent.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/15669

[FrenchieCat]

1. Giuliani is nothing more than a GOP ticking Time Bomb.....

who will be exploding sooner than later.

So these stats don't bring me any comfort, cause Guliani will NOT be the GOP candidate once all is said and done. Trust me.

[jcrew2001]

18. Why would the Repubs pick the Biggest Name and

who can win the general election against every Democrat and carry Blue States. Repubs are waay too smart to nominate someone like Rudy!

[Awsi Dooger]

2. We need to identify the candidate who fares best in Virginia, Ohio and Florida

Minus at least one of those, we don't win.

I think it's Edwards and these numbers seem to bear that out. I don't care who the GOP nominee is.

We can't afford to ignore electability this time, just because it was misapplied to Kerry in '04. Many of us here and elsewhere were insisting that no way was a bland New England senator with marathon sentences was most electable. You keep the criteria and simply get it right next time. I'm worried that Hillary will be nominated and then we gulp when the pivotal voters avoid her. I just experienced that last November in Nevada, when the primary voters rolled the dice on a female nominee with obvious likability and electability issues in Dina Titus. She lost by 4 points to a buffoon who may face a recall this year. I wish that had happened in a more high profile state so it was an oft mentioned example.

[YOY]

9. Being an Ohioan who resides in Virginia

That would be of incredible interest to me as well. Here's my gut feeling.

In Ohio:

Dems? Hillary, depends once again on how stupid people are feeling that month (Oh she likes American Idol?) Obama will have problems even in North where racial sentiments are not always good sad to say. Edwards, it depends. Not too sure about Gore if he feels he would like to toss his hat into the ring.

Pubs? I can tell you that IMHO Rudy would fare well in Ohio, where the somewhat blue and very Catholic North Ohio districts might be prone to siding with him. McCain...perhaps if the fundie South Ohioans vote strongly enough for him. Romney...don't make me laugh. Thompson...well it depends on how stupid folks are feeling that month.

In Virginia? .Dems: Hilary...I just don't know. My personal dislike of her poisons my rationalization here. Obama or Edward's...but this still is the South so Eduards.

McCain would be the most difficult candidate..even with his pseudo straightalk there are enough fundies to vote for him here (and they flock to the polls out of their foxholes come November.) Gulianni and Romney don't stand a chance here but that's just me...so many fundies in the southern part of the state to vote for a Catholic or a Mormon. Thompson...Like I said, if people are feeling stupid that month

[JohnLocke]

3. Kick (nt).

[skipos]

4. VA is trending Dem

Here are the trends for the last 5 Pres elections. "13r" means VA voted 13% more Republican than the national average in 1988. VP's usually get @ 5% boost from their homestate, so if someone on our ticket is from VA, we could probably win it even if the Repub candidate is strong.

Virginia: 13r, 10r, 10r, 9r, 6r

[underpants]

5. There is a long time left + wait until Vahginyans are reminded of Rudy's comment

I don't have the exact quote but Va has a huge business importing trash. Then Gov. Gilmore (running for Potus too) tried to make a big deal out of it and Rudy shot back with something about how NYC is the cultural capital of the world and that little old Virginia should be happy to take their garbage.

[Virginia Dare]

11. There's some additional tension between VA and NY..

over the gun stings. VA Assembly passed a law against them, and McDonny has warned NY that he will enforce it. Poor, poor oppressed gun dealers in Virginia...:nopity:

[underpants]

14. Oh that's right

McDonny is a Regent University grad you know.

Jesus told me to stay home and clean the guns.

[zulchzulu]

6. A Yankee would tie a Southerner in a Southern state? I'm not sure I'd brag about that

Having been in Virginia many times. in some parts (like a lot of the South), the Civil War still continues and Yankees with a Yankee accent are not usually welcome or treated very well...even today.

So if some New York Italian Catholic wife cheater is tying a Southerner, it would not be something to brag about from where I stand...

[jcrew2001]

19. Cuz Obama and hillary will win any southern states?

or any red states for that matter?

[zulchzulu]

21. Obama would win FL, TN, LA, VA, SC...maybe even GA

He has enough crossover appeal so far that it certainly could happen... Senator Clinton... not so much...imho...

[Czolgosz]

7. I wish they'd reported numbers on Edwards vs. Romney because I can't see Giuliani getting nominated.

[Catchawave]

8. Gov Kaine's early endorsement of Obama hasn't helped

as much as I thought it would.

[jgraz]

10. Am I the only one who thinks these early polls are stupid?

I seem to remember a poll with Dukakis up by 12 points over GHWB 3 months before the election...

[Virginia Dare]

12. No, you're not..

I'm a Virginian and I have no idea who I'll vote for yet.

[jcrew2001]

20. That was accurate before the attack ads by Bush

nt

[Virginia Dare]

13. Poor Jim Gilmore, are they not even polling him...

in his own state? :rofl:

[draft_mario_cuomo]

15. Edwards is the only candidate who can flip red states, not just purple states Bush won

[Alamom]

16. It's not looking that way for now.......

http://www.presidentpolls2008.com/primary-election-poll-results/alabama-democratic-republican-polls.html

Alabama
Capital Survey Research Center/Alabama Education Association
May 1, 2007

Democratic candidates
5/1/07

Hillary Clinton 37
Barack Obama 21
Al Gore 9
John Edwards 9

Other 5
Unsure 18

Republican candidates
5/1/07


Rudy Giuliani 29
John McCain 23
Newt Gingrich 15
Mitt Romney 7

Other 8
Unsure 18




http://www.presidentpolls2008.com/primary-election-poll-results/florida-democratic-republican-polls.html

Florida
Quinnipiac University Poll
Apr. 17-24, 2007

Democratic candidates
4/17-24/07

Hillary Clinton 36
Al Gore 15
Barack Obama 13
John Edwards 11
Joe Biden 2
Dennis Kucinich 2
Bill Richardson 2
Wesley Clark - 1

Other (vol.) 3
Wouldn't vote (vol.) 2
Unsure 14



Republican candidates
4/17-24/07

Rudy Giuliani 38
John McCain 15
Mitt Romney 7
Newt Gingrich 6
Fred Thompson 5

Other (vol.) 2
Wouldn't vote (vol.) 2
Unsure 21


http://www.presidentpolls2008.com/primary-election-poll-results/georgia-democratic-republican-polls.html

Georgia
Strategic Vision
Apr. 5-7, 2007


Democratic candidates
4/5-7/07

Hillary Clinton 25
Barack Obama 22
John Edwards 20
Bill Richardson 4
Joe Biden 3
Chris Dodd1
Dennis Kucinich 1
Al Gore n/a

Undecided 12


Republican candidates
4/5-7/07

Rudy Giuliani 23
John McCain 17
Fred Thompson 12
Newt Gingrich 10

Undecided 18




http://www.presidentpolls2008.com/primary-election-poll-results/north-carolina-democratic-republican-polls.html


North Carolina
Civitas Institute Poll Conducted by Tel Opinion Research
Apr. 11-15, 2007


Democratic candidates
4/11-15/07

John Edwards 26
Hillary Clinton 20
Barack Obama
None of these
Undecided 20

Republican candidates
4/11-15/07

Rudy Giuliani 32
John McCain 22
Mitt Romney 10
None of these 17
Undecided 19


http://www.presidentpolls2008.com/primary-election-poll-results/south-carolina-democratic-republican-polls.html


South Carolina

American Research Group Poll
Apr. 27-30, 2007

Democratic candidates
4/27-30/07

Hillary Clinton 36
Barack Obama 24
John Edwards 18
Joe Biden 3
Dennis Kucinich 3

Unsure 13

Republican candidates
4/27-30/07

John McCain 36
Rudy Giuliani 23
Fred Thompson 10
Newt Gingrich 6
Mitt Romney 6

Unsure 12


http://www.presidentpolls2008.com/primary-election-poll-results/texas-democratic-republican-polls.html

Texas
American Research Group Poll
Mar. 16-19, 2007
Democratic candidates

Hillary Clinton 34
Barack Obama 32
John Edwards 11
Joe Biden 4
Wesley Clark 4
Bill Richardson 4

Unsure 10

Republican candidates

Rudy Giuliani 30
John McCain 20
Mitt Romney 13
Fred Thompson 12
Newt Gingrich 11
Mike Huckabee 2


Unsure 11

&

http://www.presidentpolls2008.com/primary-election-poll-results/ohio-democratic-republican-polls.html

Ohio
Quinnipiac University Poll
Apr. 17-24, 2007

Democratic candidates
4/17-24/07

Hillary Clinton 37
John Edwards 17
Barack Obama 14

Unsure 14


Republican candidates

4/17-24/07

Rudy Giuliani 23
John McCain 21
Newt Gingrich 9
Fred Thompson 8
Mitt Romney 6


Unsure 23



edgr

[Alamom]

17. More......

http://www.electoral-vote.com/



Also, in some current & somewhat dated polls, Senator Clinton is leading in Arkansas, Colorado, Missouri,Oklahoma, West Virginia.

Other Southeast & Midwest states don't have polls out yet & the reps are leading in a few....not many. Looks nothing like the 04 election.

Utah Romney 40%, Clinton 31%, Edwards 9%

However, it is very early.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

22. That doesn't say anything about general election strength

We all know how strong HRC is among Democrats. So was Mondale. So was Dukakis. They both were destroyed in the general election. Can HRC win swing voters and even a healthy chunk of Republican votes? The Republicans had "Reagan Democrats" in the 80's. Can we envision "Clinton Republicans" for HRC? I doubt it.