Edwards would lose to Guiliani in New York

[SaveElmer]

Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research
Hillary Leads Giuliani in New York
May 11, 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Many voters in the Empire State would back Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton in the 2008 United States presidential election, according to a poll by SurveyUSA released by WABC-TV. 53 per cent of respondents in New York would vote for their U.S. senator, while 42 per cent would support former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani.

Giuliani—a Republican—holds a nine-point lead over Illinois senator Barack Obama, and a five-point advantage over former North Carolina senator John Edwards.

In 2004, Democratic nominee John Kerry carried New York’s 31 electoral votes, with 58 per cent of the vote. No Republican has won the Empire State since Ronald Reagan in 1984.

U.S. president George W. Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The next United States presidential election is scheduled for November 2008.

Polling Data

Possible match-ups - 2008 U.S. presidential election

A few questions now about the next election. If there were an election for president of the United States today, and the only two names on the ballot were (the following) who would you vote for?

Rudy Giuliani (R) 42% - 53% Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)
Rudy Giuliani (R) 49% - 44% John Edwards (D)
Rudy Giuliani (R) 51% - 42% Barack Obama (D)

Source: SurveyUSA / WABC-TV
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 536, 533 and 529 registered New York voters, conducted from Apr. 13 to Apr. 15, 2007. Margin of error is 4.3 per cent.


http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/15700

[stray cat]

1. A former governor or in this case NYC major should take their own state

[sellitman]

2. Gouliani would take CT too

Over any potential Dem.

[aquart]

6. Possibly. We already know that state elects stupidly.

But he hasn't a prayer in New York. We're the people he lied to about air quality.

[sellitman]

11. You got that right.

I still cannot believe Joe is still in office.
:banghead:

[AndyA]

3. U.S. president George W. Bush is ineligible for a third term in office.

Thank God (or whatever you believe in) for that!

[aquart]

4. Giuliani will NOT take New York.

I don't care who runs against him. It will not happen.

[Awsi Dooger]

16. Correct

That state is about 18-20 points more Democratic than the nation as a whole, in terms of the presidential vote. No way Rudy or any favorite son could overcome a tilt like that. Not a single modern example of a state with anything close to that type of partisanship switching to the other side.

Rudy would cut it in half, or slightly more than that, but he'll lose by single digits to any of our nominees.

[Hawaii Hiker]

20. I hope so..While NY is heavily Democrat

Rudy does have somewhat of a following...He's the only Republican who could make NY competitive, any other Republican candiate will get CLOBBERED in NY....Hell, NY hasn't gone Repug since 1984, but Giuliani concerns me a little, because Democrats can't afford to lose the long standing blue states like NY, PA, IL, etc., as we need to hold onto those areas, PLUS pick up some mid-west states or Florida....

[Awsi Dooger]

24. I'm concerned about Rudy also

He'd lose New York but the polling would be close and force us to spend in that state. No one else would make New York competitive.

Rudy would also change the dynamic in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania and Connecticut and other northeastern states. Plus the aspect of pulling from voters who automatically choose the Democrat due to pro-choice stance.

I have a wager on Rudy to win the GOP nomination at 10/1 but I hope that flops. He could run a bullshit tough guy campaign in the general election and peel off simplistic voters. I hope McCain and Romney, etc. savage him during the primary season. If it's a conventional Republican nominee I love our chances.

[Hawaii Hiker]

28. There isn't a worse area to have to spend money in than

the NY/NJ area as advertising in those places is FRIGHTFULLY EXPENSIVE!!....

I to, love our chances if it's one of the conventional nominees, especially Romney, as he's really a first rate lunatic nearing Sam "I don't believe in evolution" Brownback levels...

[aquart]

29. NYC is heavily Democratic.

And if you think we'll vote for the man who lied about the air while our heroes are dying in front of us? While even the rescue dogs have died?

No. I adored Rudy for his leadership during the crisis. Me. I did. He helped us thru it. But I wouldn't vote for him for...obviously not dogcatcher considering the rescue dogs.

NYC has a Republican mayor because a one-party city becomes corrupt and our Dems needed to wander in the wilderness and bethink themselves of their sins (like forgetting to open the schools, for instance). But we are NOT Republicans. Don't ever make that mistake.

[liberalKD126]

37. I think it could be close

You would think as such a Democratic state that Guiliani could not win but he is very loose about his political views trying to cater to everyone.... If he gets that nomination, I dunno he is going to use his appeal factor to try and win NY... Probably won't happen but I still see a chance

[ananda]

5. Maybe NYers are just as crazy as Texans..

.. when it comes to favorite sons.. and 911.

Reealllyyy crazzeee.

[aquart]

30. No. We're not.

We're sentimental about our firemen. Anyone who was digging in the pile.

We are not particularly sentimental about our politicians. And we aren't the ones who visit the site as a tourist attraction. While the burned out buildings were there, while the dust was there, while the streets were blocked off, and for a year or so afterward. But now?

We've moved on, done the stages of grief, all of it. Wish the rest of the country would catch up.

[Old and In the Way]

7. I suspect that there's some primary politics involved here.

Those NYer's that were polled clearly have an interest in seeing Hillary Clinton as the primary winner. Would they skew their actual preferences to help her? Sure, why not? I'll wait until after the primary when we know who both of the candidates will be and then start taking these polls seriously.

[JohnRussellCD5Fl]

38. Survey USA IS A Statistically UNFOUNDED "PUSH POLL" TRASH!

Please DISREGARD ANY AND ALL poll results put out by this corrupt organization aligned w/ the Corporate Mass Media. I know a little about Survey USA having been a general election candidate for U S House in 2006. Survey USA "hand picks" their respondents to derive the statistical "message" that they seek... in order to pre-form public opinion and expectations to set the stage for potentially "contrived" election results. Survey USA in my race against Rep. Brown-Waite R in Florida's 5th District according to Survey USA never, in 4 of their "polls" leading up to the general election... NEVER had a more than 4% undecided margin... not difficult to do when there is NO RANDOM selection of respondents to a survey... This while a poll commissioned by my campaign by Rasmussen Research widely acknowledged as being one of the most objective polling organizations in America , just prior to the breaking of the Foley page scandal in which my opponent was closely associated, demonstrated using the most random methodology in use in polling today showed a 21% undecided result, a dead heat between generic R and generic Dem and a 10% margin for my opponent at that time Brown-Waite vs Russell. My Rasmussen Research results are available on my website johnrussellforcongressdotcom. Survey USA poll results interestingly matched exactly final election results! We have an election contest w/ evidence showing a near dead heat race... More to come... My advice trust your gut... not the corporate media. Check utube channel johnrussellcd5 for more John Russell

[Catchawave]

8. Obviously, didn't poll any First Responders :)

http://firefightingnews.com/article-US.cfm?articleID=27125

[flyarm]

9. i do not believe rudy will take NY....i don't believe that at all!! eom

[Tejanocrat]

10. Why does HRC only do 9 points better than Edwards in her home state?

And, for that matter, why does Edwards do better in NY against Giuliani than Obama?

I would have predicted that HRC would have a 20 point advantage over the rest and that Obama would be a strong second in NY well ahead of Edwards.

[waiting for hope]

13. I talked to 2 New Yorkers

about three weeks ago - they said that Hillary only holds a small portion in her favor, they were Repukes (it was business) and Ghouliani was their ticket....go figure.

[MGKrebs]

18. I think there is a pretty strong sentiment everywhere for change.

Many are fed up with Congress and politics in general. A good atmosphere for a relatively "outsider" candidate, but will poll results turn into votes?

[Clark2008]

23. Edwards does only slightly better than HRC in HIS home state.

Maybe it's all vanilla.

[Catchawave]

26. Ready. Fire. Aim. n/t

[draft_mario_cuomo]

35. And he does 17 points better than her in Iowa against Giuliani

Why didn't you mention that? ;)

[jcrew2001]

12. Rudy crushes Obama!

But Edwards will sweep the South, so it won't matter.

[zulchzulu]

19. I doubt that very much

Granted, the election is 1 year, 5 months, 28 days away..so any poll now is absurd crack...

I'd love to see Obama against Rudy anyday though...

[HockeyMom]

14. According to Quinnipiac Poll

Obama would beat Rudy also. Rudy will lose both NYC AND the suburbs (close but still lose). That would seal it for him.

Remember one thing. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in NYS something like 2 to 1. Even Independents outnumber Reps, but they are more "liberal" than elsewhere. Trust me, I was one for 30 years.

No, if Rudy is the Rep nominee, he WILL lose NYS.

[luckyleftyme2]

15. Ihope he gets the nomination

it will be a landslide for the democrats!

[w4rma]

39. Your sentence is backwards. It should read: Rudy would beat Obama also.

Rudy Giuliani (R) 51% - 42% Barack Obama (D)

[glengarry]

17. Over 300,000 NY Kerry votes were not counted

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/TruthIsAllFAQResponse.htm#NewYork

Kerry won the final NY pre-election poll by 59-40 which closely matched the 58.5-40.2 recorded vote. The NY exit poll was Kerry 62.75-Bush 35.35- Other 1.9. But this implies that 100% of returning Nader 2000 voters defected to Bush- clearly impossible.

The 2000 recorded vote was Gore 60.5 - Bush 35.4 - Nader 4.1. According to the 12:22am NEP, Kerry won Nader 2000 voters by 71-21%; 10% of Bush 2000 voters defected to Kerry while just 8% of Gore voters defected.

Adjusting the NEP weights based on the NY 2000 recorded vote, and using 12:22am NEP vote shares the adjusted vote becomes Kerry 60.8-Bush 38.1%, well within the 2.6% NY exit poll margin of error for 1452 respondents. But Kerry’s vote share was 10% higher in NY than it was nationwide.

Adjusting Kerry’s NEP Voted 2000 vote shares to plausible NY levels, Kerry wins by 62.7-36.3%, matching the exit poll. A sensitivity analysis shows that if Kerry won 91-95% of NY Gore voters and 54-62% of those who did not vote in 2000, his NY vote share ranges from 60.5-63.7%.

A third analysis, based on uncounted and switched votes added to the recorded vote, indicates that Kerry won NY by 62.8-35.8%. The analysis assumes that 2% of total votes cast were uncounted (75% to Kerry) and 7% were switched from Kerry to Bush. The uncounted vote assumption is lower than the 2.74% national average since NY uses lever voting machines. The 7% switched vote assumption reflects the national result based on the 12:22am Exit poll adjusted for feasible weights.

Assumptions
95% voter turnout in 2004 of Gore, Bush and Nader 2000 voters
3% mortality
12:22am National Exit Poll vote shares

Recorded
2000.................... 2004
Gore 4112 60.5% Kerry 4314 58.48%
Bush 2405 35.4% Bush 2963 40.17%
Nader 277 4.1% Other 100 1.35%
Total 6794........ Total 7377


Calculated

NY2k Weight Votes Kerry Bush Other
DNV 15.1% 1116 57% 41% 2%
Gore 51.4% 3789 91% 8% 1%
Bush 30.0% 2216 10% 90% 0%
Other 3.5% 255 71% 21% 8%

Total 100% 60.83% 38.08% 1.09%
Total 7377 4487 2809 81


Sensitivity Analysis
Kerry% Kerry% DNV
Gore 54% 55% 56% 57% 58% 59% 60% 61%

89% 59.3% 59.5% 59.7% 59.8% 60.0% 60.1% 60.3% 60.4%
90% 59.9% 60.0% 60.2% 60.3% 60.5% 60.6% 60.8% 60.9%
91% 60.4% 60.5% 60.7% 60.8% 61.0% 61.1% 61.3% 61.4%
92% 60.9% 61.0% 61.2% 61.3% 61.5% 61.6% 61.8% 61.9%
93% 61.4% 61.6% 61.7% 61.9% 62.0% 62.2% 62.3% 62.5%


Adjusted NY Vote Shares

New weights were calculated based on NY 2000 recorded vote
adjusted for 95% turnout and 0.87% annual mortality rate.
Kerry NEP vote shares were increased to reflect his NY vote.

Kerry wins by 62.70-36.30%, closely matching his True Vote calculation and the NY Exit Poll.

NYS Weight Votes Kerry Bush Other
DNV 15.6% 1149 62% 36% 2%
Gore 51.1% 3770 93% 7% 0%
Bush 29.9% 2205 11% 89% 0%
Other 3.4% 254 65% 15% 20%

Adj 100% 62.70% 36.30% 1.00%

NY Exit 100% 62.75% 35.35% 1.90%
True Vote 62.82% 35.83% 1.35%

Actual 7377 58.48% 40.17% 1.35%

Adj 7377 4626 2678 74
Actual 7377 4314 2963 100
Diff 6.73% 312 -285 -26


Sensitivity Analysis

Kerry Kerry% DNV
%Gore 54% 57% 59% 61% 62%

91% 60.5% 60.9% 61.2% 61.5% 61.7%
92% 61.0% 61.5% 61.8% 62.0% 62.2%
93% 61.5% 62.0% 62.3% 62.6% 62.7%
94% 62.1% 62.5% 62.8% 63.1% 63.2%
95% 62.6% 63.0% 63.3% 63.6% 63.7%


NY True Vote: Uncounted and Switched vote adjustments

NYS Votes Kerry Bush Other
Actual 7377 4314 2963 100
Unctd 2% 75% 24% 1%
Unctd 151 113 36 2

NYS Total 7528 4427 2999 101
Pct 100% 58.81% 39.84% 1.35%
Switch 7.0% 302 -302 0

True 7527 4729 2697 101
100% 62.82% 35.83% 1.35%
Diff 415 -266 2

[venable]

21. another title for this OP would be

Edwards does better against Rudy in NY than does Obama.

[spooky3]

22. Hey, V, good to see you back!

I thought the key and most meaningful point of the article was that Clinton was beating Ghoul in THEIR "home state" (in other words, when holding "favorite son/daughter status constant), and sure enough, when I clicked on the link, I found that the title of the source article is:

"Hillary Leads Giuliani in New York."

[SaveElmer]

25. Actually...

These results are exactly the same as the recent SUSA poll of these states...they must be the same poll..Obama gets crushed almost everywhere...Edwards does best, with Hillary pretty close behind, within the MoE in every state...

[Catchawave]

27. Hey v.

:hi:

What's even more interesting? Rudy trounces Obama in Virginia, even with the very popular Governor Kaine's endorsement. BUT, Edwards is tied with Giuliani :evilgrin:

[calteacherguy]

32. No. The margin of error is 4.3%. nt

[calteacherguy]

31. There are three possible explanations.

A. Guiliani is more unpopular in N.Y. than the rest of the U.S.
B. Clinton is more popular in N.Y. than in the rest of the U.S.
C. Both.

[Forkboy]

33. I vote for all of the above.

[snowbear]

34. Elmer, Elmer, Elmer..

More polls?!?


Last time I dropped in here ('bout 5 or so days ago).. you had several polls up.. Fast-forward a week, and the 2nd thread I see when I log on is a Save Elmer thread.

You're going to poll yourself silly.

Promise you'll set aside one day soon where you don't look at one single poll? One day where you just kick back and relax?

I swear, I'm gonna have to drag you to the loonie bin before election day rolls around!

(p.s. I didn't read the poll info in your thread. I just saw that it was another poll, and decided that if I didn't give you a hard time.. no one else would.. )

[draft_mario_cuomo]

36. CLINTON OUTRUNS OTHER DEMS IN HOME STATE

Amazing feat! There is actually a state in which HRC outpaces both Edwards and Obama. Sure, it is her home state but at least there is one state where she does this! This is a testament to her general election strength. She will retain heavily Democratic New York, which has voted Democratic in every election since 1984, and will magically win despite flipping no red states and losing several purple states to Giuliani.

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

40. If Rudy takes New York, I never want to hear NYC hipsters talk down any part of the country again

If they can't see through this phony b.s. of giuliani (with first-hand experience!), forget his record pre 9-11, and vote GOP after 8 years of Bush, they have no business writing the rest of us off as country bumpkins. The midwest is the real heart of progressivism these days