BUSH APPROVAL MAP: No Safe Districts For GOP (By the way, Idaho and Utah are Looney-Toons)

[Hissyspit]

Yeah, I know, the diary makes attempts at explaining the Idaho and Utah numbers, but still...

Bush Approval Map: No Safe Districts for GOP

http://www.opednews.com/articles/genera_the_web_070511_bush_approval_map_3a_n.htm
cross posted from dailykos.com by dreaminonempty: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/5/11/81234/2410

As long as Bush remains unpopular, there are no more safe Republican House seats. That’s the message I want to get across. But first:

It’s been a long time since I made a map of Bush’s approval ratings. But Bush has been holding steady at record low approval ratings for the past four months – I just had to see that lovely sea of blue spread across the country. The problem is, Survey USA is now doing 16-state surveys instead of 50-state surveys. So, averaging all the polls I could find over four months, and throwing in a few estimates, here you go, everybody:

http://www.imgred.com/

Why the heck should we care about Bush’s approval ratings anymore? Because they could guarantee our majorities in the House and Senate. An explanation below.

Ahhhhh......

What a soothing picture. Deep calming blue in the Northeast, with just a spot of green from our friends in Rhode Island, leading the way with approval of Bush in the teens. The solid south – solidly disapproving of Bush, that is. And of course that persistent pink stain in the mountains.

But what does this mean? Well, one thing we know is that approval of Bush’s handling of the Iraq war is generally a few points below his general approval rating. So looking at this map, we should be seeing every single Senator voting against Bush’s war plans. But we’re not: now that might be good for electing Democrats in 2008 and 2010, but it’s not good for the soldiers and their families or our national security. So, Senators, act in your own self interest and oppose Bush.

- snip -

So what? Bush is a fried duck anyways.

A lot of people have posed this question, in my diaries and elsewhere. My stock reply was that Bush’s low approval ratings represented an opportunity for Democrats, but was no guarantee of electoral success. This turned out to be true. Now I have some more detailed answers, from looking at data from the 2006 House elections. I served the pretty map for dessert first: now here’s the meal.

Democrats

Let’s look at seats held by Democrats first...

CLICK THE LINK FOR THE REST

[Viva_La_Revolution]

1. sooooo sooooothing!

:D

Thank you!





Book TV Schedule: May 12th - 14th

*Anatomy of Deceit: How the Bush Administration Used the Media to Sell the Iraq War and Out a Spy.
*2007 LA Times Festival of Books - Iraq Panel - featuring: William Langewiesche, T. Christian Miller, Robert Scheer, and Chris Hedges.
*Not On Our Watch: The Mission to End Genocide in Darfur and Beyond
This Moment on Earth: Today's New Environmentalists and Their Vision for the Future.
*2007 LA Times Festival of Books - State of the Union Panel - featuring: Amy Goodman, Douglas Kmiec, Greg Palast.
*2007 LA Times Festival of Books - Age of Spin Panel - featuring: Frank Luntz, Joe Conason, David Goodman, and Michael Isikoff.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x870952

[glengarry]

2. 0.87 correlation between 2004 pre-election Bush monthly approval and the avg National pol

National Pre-election Poll Monthly Trend

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/TruthIsAllFAQResponse.htm#NationalPrePollTrend

The following chart shows the individual polls, the average and projection (based on an assumed 75% of undecided voters breaking for Kerry). Kerry led the 18-pre-election poll average every month except for January and September. The 0.87 statistical correlation between the 11-poll average Bush monthly approval and average poll was close to a perfect 1.0.

Poll Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct
Mean
Kerry 40.78 47.80 47.58 46.31 46.86 46.64 47.47 47.40 44.33 47.17
Bush 51.56 46.10 44.83 45.62 44.71 45.71 45.20 45.40 48.28 46.89


Approval 54.4 49.5 48.8 48.6 45.2 47.0 47.8 48.0 49.1 48.5
Poll/Appr 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.94 0.99 0.97 0.95 0.95 0.98 0.97

[jakem]

3. Great article.

The one flaw I see is that I don't think in the presidential election cycle, the vote is going to be about Bush's approval rating anymore, it will be about the approval rating of the repug nominee.

Of course, if we all play it right, this should still be good news for the Dems.

[Nite Owl]

4. But if they sided with *

they are just as responsible. That is the point that the dems have to keep making.

[Nite Owl]

5. That is CT up there with the same

21-25 as NY and VT? How happy are they with ol' kiss georie's butt joe now?

[gaspee]

6. HaHaHaHaHA

My state is the only one in the green (16-20% approval.)

Uhm, that would be RI, since it's too small to see on that map.

[mitchtv]

7. Er... you forgot NY

Forest green

[gaspee]

12. NY is dark blue

21-25%

[tridim]

8. It's pretty funny that the key only goes up to 56- 60%..

Clinton had higher than 60% overall approval DURING Newt's bullshit impeachment attempt.

[Straight Shooter]

9. Utah is heavily Mormon, and so are many parts of Idaho.

I don't get it. Why would Mormons approve of bush? :shrug:

[Arugula Latte]

11. Let's face it -- with these hardcore religious types (fundies, Mormons, etc.)

rationality and logic are not high on their list values to embrace. "Faith" -- i.e. suspension of rational thought for the embrace of magical thinking -- trumps all.

[Stinky The Clown]

10. I HOPE this can dispell the DU (and elsewhere) myth about the South

The South looks a lot like the rest of the country.

[Hissyspit]

13. .

[eppur_se_muova]

14. Rhode Island is AWESOME !!

They're having to add new colors to the map, as Bu**sh** sinks to new lows. Way to go, Little Rhodey!

[Awsi Dooger]

15. Hawaii makes no sense

It's the only deep blue state where Bush's approval rating is above the national average, in the 36-40 range. Many lesser blue and even some purple states have the rating lower than that, in the 31-35 range.

Maybe that's an estimate in Hawaii, and a bad one. Or the Hawaiians are too polite and content, and prefer not to be overly negative about anyone.

[greiner3]

16. But where do you think the RICH retired republicans retire?

[skipos]

17. Jeeze, how do Democrats even get elected in UT? nt

[aQuArius]

21. The Mayor of Salt Lake City is a Democrat

and absolutely despises the idiot son of an asshole.
http://deseretnews.com/dn/view/0,1249,600157220,00.html

[aQuArius]

18. I'm so proud to be from Utah...

NOT! I would, however, like to see a county by county breakdown of his approval rating within Utah. Salt Lake County and Summit County would be blue for sure.

[ToeBot]

19. And they would have to invent a new shade of red to describe Utah County. n/t

[aQuArius]

20. I'll give you a big BYU "AMEN!" on that!! n/t

[zanne]

22. How the hell does that happen?

I've often wondered about things like this. It seems that if you live in Utah and Idaho, you're a conservative Republican and If you live in New England, you're a liberal Democrat. I live in New England but I've always been a liberal so I don't know how it happens that, since we all live in the same place, we all think pretty much alike about politics. I don't know how it happens in Idaho or Utah, either. I'm assuming these polls count people who are natives or transplants, so it can't be completely a family or traditional thing. If anybody has any bright ideas about this, I'd sure like to hear them.

[BlueCollar]

23. Austin, Texas

an island of blue in a sea of red...

I'm guessing the average IQ is a little higher there...LOL

[calimary]

24. As far as explaining Idaho and Utah, well, I think I can be okay with that.

I can be okay with that the "justin dart way."

justin dart was this old-fart multi-gajillionaire developer/industrialst, a close friend of ronald reagan's, close enough to be part of reagan's much-vaunted "kitchen cabinet" (those L.A.-based business tycoons who backed him politically and who "advised" him on stuff "unofficially" - behind closed doors in private, not on the government payroll or as formal Cabinet officers. justin dart was famous out here for sneering at any and all attempts to protect the national forests from development and commercialism, to safeguard the environment and endangered species, to clamp down on polluters and dirty, corner-cutting industries, and the like. He never saw an acre of ground he didn't want to dig up, pave over, and develop up the ying-yang. He hated people like us so-called "tree-huggers" who got in his way. His attitude toward protecting old-growth forests and the magnificent California redwoods was - "we can just save 100 acres for the kids."

In other words, a MAJOR, MAJOR, MAJOR LEAGUE RAT-BASTARD SCHMUCK DOUCHEBAG ASSHOLE. A veritable latter-day cheney.

So in the spirit of justin dart, I'd be okay with the idea of saving that comparable "100 acres" - Idaho and Utah "for the (republi-CON) kids."

BTW - when you call Congress (TOLL FREE - see switchboard numbers in sig line below), and you transfer to some republi-CON Senator or Congressperson, BE SURE TO REMIND THEM of the thin ice on which they stand. MAKE SURE YOU MAKE THEM AWARE OF THIS. It has the double benefit of notifying them that YOU ARE AWARE OF THIS REALITY, ALSO. The more this gets out, and the more people bounce it back at them, the shakier it will make them feel, and the more easily their urge to stand with bush will be UNDERMINED. Don't EVER hesitate to take advantage of an opportunity like those that present themselves with these statistics.

Remember: we WANT them shaky and uncomfortable and ON THE DEFENSIVE!!!