Obama and Edwards splitting the anti Hillary vote???

[illinoisprogressive]

A diary I came across by Emporer hadrin on Daily Kos, presents an interesting theory. I personally think this is true. It makes sense if you look at the polling, and this is going to pose a problem over time. Neither supporters are going to leave their candidate to support the other. But, somehow this needs to be resolved so Hillary can be defeated.

A few days ago, I was on MyDD.com reading some diaries. One of the diaries was regarding the democratic primary polling. The diary was a tirade about how horrible it is that Hillary is still beating Obama and Edwards by a large margin. The person who posted the diary took particular anger to the fact that polling is showing that combining the support of Obama and Edwards yeilds a margin similar to Hillary's overall support. I want to offer a theory as to why this is the case. The fact that I am leaning towards Hillary (experience matters more to me than a vote) doesn't prevent me from seeing things objectively. I think the presence of both Obama and Edwards increases the chances that Hillary will be nominated. I think that Obama and Edwards are splitting the anti-Hillary vote, which would just go to one if the other wasn't running.

* EmperorHadrian's diary :: ::
*

One bit of evidence for this theory can be found in some polling I have seen. One poll (I think Gallup) found that democratic voters who supported Hillary did so because of positive pro-Hillary factors. Examples would be her experience and her proven judgment (one vote doesn't invalidate 30 years of judgments). On the other hand, support for Obama (I didn't see an analysis of support for Edwards, although my guess is the case is the same for him) was more dependent on anti-Hillary feelings. Examples would be "she can't win" or her support initial support for the Iraq invasion. To be sure, a good sized chunk of Obama support was due to pro-Obama feelings, but that support was still heavily dependent on anti-Hillary support.

Given the fact that neither Obama or Edwards are known that well (not as much as Hillary especially), it seems to me that their support is more dependent on vague notions about the candidates, and the heavy knowledge of Hillarys pluses and minuses. So I think that it is the fact that both are running, which is making it so that neither may end up being nominated. Just look at Daily Kos. I just saw a primary poll, where most Kos support was split between Obama and Edwards. If either Obama or Edwards weren't running, how much of that would go to Biden? How much to Hillary? Probably not much. I would also bet that most Obama supporters would be much more reluctant to support Hillary than Edwards, and most Edwards supporters would be much more reluctant to support Hillary than Obama.


http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/5/15/221027/240

[Dawgs]

1. I agree that Edwards and Obama are helping Hillary, but claiming..

that Edwards and/or Obama supporters are anti-Hillary is bullshit. I have never met any Edwards or Obama supporter that claimed there vote was a vote against Hillary.

[illinoisprogressive]

2. I think the guy, like all, uses it as catch all description

[primative1]

12. Rrrriiinng ...

Hi There, nice to meet ya ;)

[Colobo]

3. People don't know Obama very well yet

As people learn from him more and more, numbers will improve for him.

[gaspee]

4. Met him in person

and I can say I was leaning toward him until then. My primary vote is going to Edwards (in a state where the primary doens't matter) and my vote in the general is for whomever the dem nominee is.

So my vote doesn't really matter. I'm just saying that knowing him better made me not want to vote for him.

And I'm not anti any candidate. I will pull the lever for any of the dems with a smile on my face.

ANYONE will be better than what we've had to live with under Bush.

Clinton and Obama are too mainstream and DLC for me, but like I sadi, any of them are better than ANY republican.

[ElizabethDC]

5. I've met him in person, too

and he's not getting my vote. I met him in last fall, before he indicated that he'd be running this time around, and when I was undecided with regard to the primaries. I have always thought that he would be a great presidential candidate, but I think it's too soon for him. However, when I met him, I was very turned off. He lost any chance of having my vote in the primary right then and there.

[Ethelk2044]

6. I am for Obama

Because I support him 150% not because I am anti Hillary.


:woohoo:

[gaspee]

9. I hope you see this

How come? I have my reasons and I wonder if they are the same for you.

1st reason. Extreme arrogance. Now, I'm not saying he's not an impressive man but a little humbleness would sit a little better with me than his utter arrogance. I have an IQ of 150 and he kind of treated the people around him like no one could possibly be as smart as him. Uhm... some of us don't have to flaunt our intelligence.

2nd reason. I am a very masculine woman. I don't try to fit into the way society says a woman should look. In fact, I reject female drag in every oppressive form, from high heels to dresses to makeup. When I met him, I was with my sister. My sister is married to one of Whitehouse's campaign people (behind the scenes money raiser.) My sister is a very beautiful woman who wears female drag and looks about 25 instead of 38. When we met Obama, he completely dismissed me as if I didn't exist and was very polite and fauning with my sister. Whenever any male acts that way, I lose all respect for them. Why? It tells me they objectify women. A woman only has value if she fits into a certain role. I call bullshit.

3rd reason. I plain didn't like him. I haven't met his wife, but her, I'm impressed with. Why isn't she running? Her, I'd vote for in an instant. I'd vote for her over Clinton or Edwards. Now there's a sharp woman.

Do I think he would be a competent president? Yes, if he has the right team. No, if he allows his arrogance reign over his ability to admit when he doesn't know what he's doing.

That said, I would vote for him in the general because every single republican turns my stomach. Kind of sucks to have nowhere to go in our wonderful two-party winner-take-all system. I wouldn't waste my vote on a third party in a national election. I vote third party locally, if I like the candidate. In a national election? No way.

[Ethelk2044]

10. I see it and all of

the things you have posed about him is Bull Sh - -. If Obama was not running I would vote for Biden.

[gaspee]

11. Whatever

You can dismiss my feelings but that doesn't make the way I feel not true. You can tell yourself whatever you like.

Edited to add, funny how another woman who met him isn't going to vote for him after meeting him as well. But feel free to call bullshit on her too. Won't change our minds. But if it makes you feel better, have at it.

[Ethelk2044]

13. I say it because

anyone who knows him or have seen him knows the way you have characterized him is not the way he portrays himself. If it was I would not have a problem with it.

[gaspee]

14. Have you met him in person

It doesn't matter how he portrays himself on TV, in interviews or at massive campaign functions. I met him in a room of 100 people, all donors to Whitehouse's campaign. That's how I perceived him. I will not vote for him in the primary. If he gets the nomination, I'll vote for him in the general. Even if I don't want to. Living in RI, it's not like my vote matters anyway. Whoever the dem nominee is will get 80% of the RI vote. It's a no brainer.

[Ethelk2044]

15. Yes, I have

and no I did not feel the way you do. I am very proud he is running. There are many around me who feel the same way as I do.

[Clark2008]

21. Why are you voting for Edwards?

He supported and co-sponsored the IWR, helped write and supported the PATRIOT Act, he supported allowing banks to easily enter the predatory lending game against the poor, he supported the ruination of Yucca Mountain and No Child Left Behind.

Now, because none of those are popular, he said "oops" and takes it back? :eyes:

I also want a competent president and Edwards, to me, sounds the LEAST competent, given his track record.

For the record, I have no horse I'm backing. I really don't have a clue who I'm voting for since Gore, Feingold and Clark don't seem to be running to join the race.

[rinsd]

20. This superficial attack analysis is an insult to Obama's supporters.

It supposes his appeal is in direct coorelation to people disliking Clinton vs. his actual attributes.

It does the same to Edwards supporters.

[calteacherguy]

7. I admit I didn't read the OP, but the answer is YES. nt

[William769]

8. all 4 of them?

[SaveElmer]

16. Actually no...polling disputes this...

In head to head matchups with either Obama or Edwards...Hillary's margin increases...

Not only is she the first choice leader, she is the leading second choice as well!

[Tellurian]

17. Oh well!

[geek tragedy]

18. Hillary leads any 1-1 match up with Edwards and Obama.

She's my personal #2 choice.

The problem is that a lot of Democrats really like her.

[jcrew2001]

22. I don't know anyone that likes Hillary

but i need to get out more.

[rinsd]

19. What an insult to Obama and Edwards supporters

In your zeal to attack Clinton, you shit on people who genuinely support their candidate.

That is unless you think Obama is being propped up by anti-Hillary sentiment or something ridiculous like that.