POLL: Obama back to within nine points of Hillary (35 / 26)

[jefferson_dem]

First Choice for 2008 Democratic Nomination
Based on Democrats/Democratic leaners
May 10-13, 2007

Hillary Clinton 35
Barack Obama 26
Al Gore 16
John Edwards 12
Bill Richardson 2
Joe Biden 2
Al Sharpton 1
Christopher Dodd 1
Wesley Clark 1
Dennis Kucinich *
Mike Gravel 0
Other 1
None *
All/any 0
No opinion 4
* Less than 0.5%

http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=27598

[skipos]

1. Anyone But Clinton for the 08 nom!

I like Richardson, Obama, Edwards, Clark and Gore the best. Anything that shows them moving up and/or Hillary moving down is great.

[jefferson_dem]

3. Rest assured, you are not alone in that "ABHRC" sentiment.

:-)

[SaveElmer]

4. But he is a minority among Democrats...nt

[jefferson_dem]

8. Racial?

No Dem candidate has a majority of support at this point. Obama places second to Hillary.

[SaveElmer]

9. That was not the point being made...

Skipos takes an Anybody but Clinton position...

You commented he was not alone...

And I noted that that view was a minority view among Democrats...

Clearly, the majority of Democrats do not take an Anybody But Clinton position...

If you strip away the field, and look at polls of Hillary head to head with Edwards and with Obama, she wins by an even wider margin than she does in the published numbers polling on the whole field...

So not only is she the top Democrat of the 8 running, she is also the top second choice as well...

Therefore the ABC position is clearly the minority position in the Democratic party...by a wide margin...

[skipos]

10. What about the ABC position in the general election?

How does she compare to other candidates in your opinion?

Candidate / Def. FOR / Def. AGAINST / Net
Obama 33% 33% Even
Giuliani 29% 34% -5
Thompson 19% 29% -10
Edwards 26% 37% -11
McCain 23% 35% -12
Romney 17% 33% -16
Clinton 30% 48% -18
Richardson 10% 28% -18
Biden 9% 38% -29
Gingrich 20% 49% -29

http://www.rasmussenresearch.com/Political%20Tracking/Dailies/April%202007/fororAgainst20070417.htm

[SaveElmer]

11. Yeah I can see how you would want to change the subject...

Last Rasmussen had her ahead of McCain, and tied with Guiliani if I remember correctly...

With 18 months to go I like where she is...

[skipos]

12. How did I change the subject? I wasn't even talking with you before.

Could you answer my question please? Do the polls indicate there are more ABCers, ABEers or ABOers?

[SaveElmer]

14. Look up threrad...

I was responding to your ABC comment, which I noted was a minority position among Democrats...and that is the conversation you again responded to...

I don't dispute Rasmussen's numbers...meaning I don't think there was any manipulation to make Hillary specifically look bad...

However, other polling groups have her favs higher and her negatives lower...Marist had her neg number at 41, with Edwards and Obama at 35 for example...hardly numbers that would induce supporters to abandon her candidacy. This is of lesser importance until after the primaries get under way...

As I have noted before it is not even uncommon for high negatives to be driven down by an effective campaign (Bill in 1992, Gore in 2000), and I have no doubt Hillary will run a very effective general election campaign...as she has run a very effective primary campaign...

[skipos]

15. I never said that ABCers were a majority

but Clinton primary supporters aren't a majority either. A plurality, yes.

I'd guess that if you did a poll asking Dems who their last choice for the Dem nomination would be, Clinton would top the list. A poll like that will probably never be done though, so there is no way to know.

[SaveElmer]

17. When you look at head to head polls...

Hillary - Obama or

Hillary - Edwards


She comes out on top by margins in the 20's or 30's...it is not even close...

She is the plurality choice in a field of 8, and the overwhelming choice in head to head matchups, which means she is the preferred second choice of those who are supporting someone else...by a large margin...

You can make the case that among all voters she is viewed negatively by a large portion of them...which you do very well...but there is no polling data to suggest that she is not popular, in fact hugely popular within the Democratic Party....

[skipos]

21. So we agree. "Plurality."

Her large primary support makes her comparively weaker general election numbers even scarier. I guess we need to hope that many of those people who currently say they would never vote for her change their minds. Gulp.

[SaveElmer]

25. So we agree...

She is quite popular in the Democratic Party...and in any head to head matchup with either Obama or Edwards is quite far ahead...

And close to 40% in an 8 man field...quite impressive...

Her general election numbers are not scary at all...polls ahead of McCain and tied with Guiliani in Rasmussen...better in others...

I like very well where she is...and the fact that her campaign has been so effective in such a short time even makes me more confident

[skipos]

29. I have never said she wasn't the primary leader

You may like the fact that she has higher unfavorable ratings than Edwards and Obama, that she has more people committed to voting against her, and in general underperforms them in general election polls. I don't, and I will never "like where she is" as long as she has weaker numbers than other Dems. She has the most money, the biggest machine and highest name recognition, she should be smoking everyone in the general election polls. She isn't.

[jefferson_dem]

13. Why must we limit the ABHRC sentiment to Dems?

According to a March Zogby poll, nearly half of the electorate say they would "never vote for Hillary" --

Poll: Over Half Say "No" to Newt; 46% Would Never Vote For Hillary

New Zogby poll asks voters who would never get their vote—Gingrich, Clinton, Gore, and Romney lead the field

With the actual voting still a long way into the future, more than half of the American electorate has already made up its mind about who they won’t be casting ballots for in 2008 – 53% said they would never vote for Newt Gingrich, even as the Georgia firebrand continues to mull a jump into the field of Republican presidential candidates, a new Zogby International telephone poll shows.

The leading Democrat in the race can’t feel much solace – nearly half (46%) said they have an aversion to voting for New York Sen. Hillary Clinton. In a national Zogby telephone survey of likely Democratic primary voters in late February, she led the field of Democratic presidential candidates at 33%. It’s no surprise Clinton has been written off by a vast majority of self-described conservative (70%) and very conservative (79%) voters, but even among moderate voters, 42% said they would never cast a vote to put Clinton into the White House.

http://www.zogby.com/News/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1263

[SaveElmer]

16. I didn't say we did...

But that was what was in the thread...I made the point that his was the minority opinion among Democrats...which it is...

And as I have pointed out many times, it is not even uncommon for high negatives to be driven down by an effective campaign (Bill '92, Gore '00)

Marist has her negs at 41, with Obama and Edwards at 35...hardly numbers to induce supporters to abandon her candidacy...

Only at DU would a serious suggestion be made that the front runner ought to abandon her race, and that supporters ought to revoke their support, solely on the basis of polls 18 months before the election...but that does seem to be the argument...

Of course Al Gore, with negs about the same as Hillary's is lionized as the savior of the party...

[YOY]

6. No she is not.

and many of her followers are not doing a bang up job of convincing the rest of us with anything near "good debating tactics".

[William769]

19. We don't need "good debating tactics"

We let Obama do that for us! :rofl:

[ronnykmarshall]

33. Wow ! Now we are "followers"

yesterday the OP called me a "sheep".

How niiiiiiccccceeee!

[William769]

34. Well when they don't have a leg to stand on.

This is what to expect.

[jefferson_dem]

35. I see you haven't let that go. We need to consider the "sheep" label in context.

It had to do with your candidate's "democratic" move <sarcasm> of censoring out unfavorable comments on youtube. Some may consider that "sheepish" - to let themselves hearded in such a way.

The comment was mild compared to others in the same thread -- like fellow DUers being called "dense" or having their Democratic purity called into question because they didn't support Hillary.

Anyway, cheers! :toast:

[wyldwolf]

26. yeah. You make up about 9%

[Missy M]

2. I like seeing Hillary consistently at the head of the pack.

[MrsT]

7. Not me. I'd like to have a candidate who can trounce any Republican

and while I am not sure if that is Obama, it sure isn't Clinton based on the polls that I have seen.

[SaveElmer]

5. Added to WSJ/Harris poll that has her up 13...lookin good...

For Hillary...

[Tellurian]

18. H to H with Obama,- Hillary leads by 14pts!!

from the OP's Link:

[Ethelk2044]

23. We will see what

happens when the polls really count.

[jefferson_dem]

24. That's typical. When Gore is dropped as a choice, Hillary's support increases.

While it may seem odd at first, there are several obvious explanations - namely name recognition for those least informed Dem voters. As i suspect Gore will not run, that means more work for Obama...to overcome...the machine.

[rinsd]

20. Without Al Gore, that lead for Hillary jumps to 42 to 28 (nt)

[William769]

22. Always the brides maid, never the bride.

:rofl:

[jefferson_dem]

27. Laughing now. Do you think Hillary's handlers believed Obama would already be within single digits?

Of course not. Hell...they are already having to unleash the Big Dawg, far in advance of originally planned.

That's ok. It's a long way till Iowa...

[William769]

28. Please let me know where you got the secret game plan for Mrs, Clinton's campaign

Inquiring minds want to know!

[Ethelk2044]

31. No they underestimated him

Just like the Polls are now.

[William769]

32. You just keep thinking that.

[Tellurian]

30. National POLL - Hillary tops Obama by 17 pts..

May 14, 2007 - National Presidential Preferences

Clinton........ 34%....36%......39%

Obama.........31%....24%......22%

Edwards.......15%....19%......19%

Kucinich........ 1%.....1%.......1%

Richardson......2%.....2%.......2%

Dodd..............1%.....1%.......2%

Biden.............1%.....2%........3%

Undecided......14%....14%......11%


http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/


Hillary over Giuliani by 11 pts.


Hillary......39%

Giuliani.....28%

[Tellurian]

36. So, the naysayers will let this thread drop like a rock..

because why? Obama doesn't have a 17 pt lead over Hillary!



They don't want to play with us anymore! :hi:

[Tellurian]

37. tickle-

:kick:

[Ethelk2044]

39. Keep Dreaming

We will lose if she gets through the primary. Freepers will eat her alive. The christian right will unite along will the Hillary haters and the Repugs will be back in control.

[calteacherguy]

38. If I had to vote today, it would be for Obama.

It's still early, and the polls are going to change and change again many times. Clearly, Obama and Clinton are the current frontrunners. And of course, these national polls aren't as important as state polls, which aren't important until the time for voting is upon us.

We have a long way to go, and much to learn. There is plenty of time to carefully consider our choices.