NO ONE is "fading" in Iowa....

[elizm]

I think we can safely say that there is NO front-runner and NO ONE is 'fading' by any stretch of the imagination. They are all within the margin of error. What a contest!

ttp://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_zogby_iowa_primary.php

May 16, 2007
POLL: Zogby Iowa Primary

A new Zogby telephone survey of likely caucus-goers in Iowa (conducted 5/14 through 5/15) finds:

* Among 511 Democrats, former Sen. John Edwards (at 26%) edges out Sen. Hillary Clinton (24%) and Sen. Barack Obama (22%) in a statewide caucus.

[nevergiveup]

1. Wow!

I didn't know Obama was doing this well in Iowa. I thought he was in the lower teens. This is going to be an exciting race.

[bigdarryl]

2. If i were a betting man i say Edwards takes it. because he has a good organization there plus he's

damn near lived there in the past year

[IA_Seth]

8. Past year? He's practically a resident.

He's been here off and on for 5 years or so...honestly I'd expect higher numbers.

[JNelson6563]

3. Glad to see it's such a race!

I hope it remains so for a long time. Nothing like a good nail-biter of a contest.

Julie

[Ethelk2044]

4. Glad to see Edwards and Barack

numbers are improving.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

5. It is interesting how HRC is consistently weaker in Iowa and NH than nationally

It seems she does worse where people are paying some attention right now. She dominates in random states where only political junkies are following the race.

[ElizabethDC]

6. The last NH poll I could find has Hillary doing very well in there

from last week: Clinton 40%, Obama 24%, Edwards 22%.

Link: http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_surveyusa_new_hampshire_p.php

[draft_mario_cuomo]

10. She is doing well and almost always leads in NH

She just does not do as well in NH compared to her national numbers, although she is much stronger in NH than Iowa. The last poll had her at 28% in NH. That was good enough for first place by 2 points but she has lead comfortably nationally throughout the process with the exception of the blip during which Obama overtook her in some polls.

[rinsd]

11. Huh?

"She just does not do as well in NH compared to her national numbers, although she is much stronger in NH than Iowa. The last poll had her at 28% in NH. That was good enough for first place by 2 points but she has lead comfortably nationally throughout the process with the exception of the blip during which Obama overtook her in some polls."

What poll are you citing? I don't see any recent NH poll that has her lead less than 6pts.

In late Feb there's a poll with her at 20% and a 2 pt lead.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#New_Hampshire

[draft_mario_cuomo]

12. The latest Zogby poll

[rinsd]

13. Ok I found it.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1302

Richardson seems to have had a huge boost.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

14. Did the debate boost him that much?

The consensus seemed to be that Biden "won" among the second-tier candidates. Or did something else boost him?

[rinsd]

15. Biden stole the show though it appears his bounce was slight .

I thought Richardson did not do very well at the debate at least compared to his other speaking performances. He was very nervous and when he asked to change his answer about what he would do post-terrorit attack I cringed a bit.

I would treat this poll as an outlier for the time being. Nothing has happened since Zogby's last poll to justifiy such a boost to Richardson and fall for Edwards.

[IA_Seth]

16. Richardson has ads on TV..

In Iowa (and NH if I'm not mistaken) Richardson has run some ads recently that have been all the buzz. I think this is a big reason for his bump.

He'll really have to pick this momentum up and run with it though, because I would imagine that H,O, and E are beginning to feel the heat and will have ads on the air in no time flat.

[rinsd]

17. Thanks.

I went and checked Richardson's website and he has been in NH quite a bit in the last month but I was still shocked. But ad buys make as much sense as anything else.

"He'll really have to pick this momentum up and run with it though, because I would imagine that H,O, and E are beginning to feel the heat and will have ads on the air in no time flat."

Hopefully he'll start getting "Don't forget about Richardson" articles written about him soon. I was disappointed in his debate performance as I have seen him speak much better.

[IA_Seth]

18. I concur...

The 'debates', should we continue calling them that, were not his best showing. Based on resumes alone I think Richardson blows the rest of the announced field out of the water...but I'll also admit that resumes aren't everything.

I just would hate to see only the top 3 make it through the summer/fall...it would set a bad precedent.

[elizm]

20. What a difference a week makes...

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1302

[rinsd]

9. Uhhh Hillary kicks ass in New Hampshire. Also In NV

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#New_Hampshire

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Nevada

[elizm]

19. Uhhhh...Don't think so!

Not according to today's poll....Sorry! Don't see this as 'kicking ass'.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1302

New Hamphsire
Hillary 28%
Obama 26%
Edwards 15%
Richardson 10%

[Colobo]

21. Beautiful numbers!

[elizm]

22. Gotta love it!!!!!!!! :)

[IA_Seth]

7. Undecided is very high still...

Anyone using these polls at this point to predict final placing is realllly speculating.

The margin of error is 4.4 points, and undecided is at 16% right now. It is still anyone's game (even the 2nd tier).

Richardson's numbers are up, as are Biden's.