Hillary pulls into a small lead in Iowa...

[SaveElmer]

Hillary 28
Edwards 26
Obama 22


Taken in combination with the earlier Zogby I would say we have a 3 way tie here...good for Obama and Hillary...bad for Edwards!!!

http://www.kcci.com/download/2007/0517/13341581.pdf

[BeyondGeography]

1. Time for the Edwards crowd to admit the haircut, the house

and the hedge fund (I only added that just to keep the alliteration going; it's the haircut, stupid) are dragging his candidacy down right now.

[David Dunham]

2. These problems for Edwards cannot be redone.

[SaveElmer]

3. It seems like Edwards has been doing...

What people always claim Hillary does...

He is saying one thing, and giving the appearance of something else.

Some have tried, but how do you argue that it was necessary to take a 500K consulting job with a Hedge Fund, to learn about how hedge funds are related to poverty?

If Hillary did that the screeching around here would be so huge, the DU servers would be brought to their knees...

That in combination with the big house, and the haircut. None of which by themselves really amount to much, but it just is piling up...

Plus his non-apology apology for his IWR vote...he takes responsibility, but blames bad intelligence and the advise of former Clinton advisors...

He is a smart guy, he may pull out of this, but he has to tighten things up!

[BeyondGeography]

7. That Huckabee remark, and the all the accompanying laughter

is exactly what the stupid-ass haircut saga invites. How can we put a candidate out there who opens himself up to such easy ridicule? Remember, the damned haircuts were publicly filed by the Edwards campaign with the FEC. A self-inflicted wound without parallel...

[SaveElmer]

8. Well I wouldn't go that far...

By itself it's not a killer...just in combination with everything else...it seems to be piling up...

[BeyondGeography]

10. Agreed; he's actually a very strong candidate

and he can regroup, but he is paying the price right now for some missteps, and his electability, which was always a strong suit, has taken a long-term hit.

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

18. so only poor candidates can advocate for the poor?

if that's the case, then no one will be noticed. Only candidates with money are considered viable by the media to compete with Empress Hillary.
So should RFK have given away everything he owned prior to running in 1968? I get sick of this double standard that if you advocate for the middle class, you have to lead a life of absolute blue collar purity, while Hillary, Bush and those who don't give a damn can live it up as much as they want.

[SaveElmer]

19. RFK...

Didn't take a job paying 500K with a hedge fund to learn how hedge funds affect the poor...

If he had just said, I went to work for the hedge fund because it was a good opportunity to make some money...no one would be making an issue of it...but to claim it was in part to learn about poverty just sounds stupid!

[skipos]

14. Yet despite that, go and look how Edwards does against the Repubs compared to Hillary

He beats the Repub by larger margins than Hillary in about 95% of the polls. Here is the latest from Rasmussen.

Thompson (R)44% Clinton (D)47% CLINTON WINS BY 3%
Romney (R)44% Clinton (D)47% CLINTON WINS BY 3%
Thompson (37%) Edwards (47%) EDWARDS WINS BY 10%
Romney (29%) Edwards (55%) EDWARDS WINS BY 26%
Thompson (37%) Obama (47%) OBAMA WINS BY 10%
Romney (37%) Obama (52%) OBAMA WINS BY 15%

I wouldn't say Edwards is my 1st pick at this time, by the way. The haircut/house still doesn't stack up to the amount of dislike that is out there for Hillary.

[SaveElmer]

15. Not much enthusiasm for him among Democrats...

One would think the last VP candidate would be doing alot better...

78% of Democrats have him as their 3rd choice or lower...

[Awsi Dooger]

16. Democrats are notoriously lousy handicappers

I would much rather have a party boss anoint our nominee than go through a primary season. That may go against everything the party stands for, but bottom line we'd win much more often. The key would be making sure the party bigwig was astute and steadfast.

And BTW, this thread is hardly news. Hillary has been the betting favorite in Iowa all along, with Edwards slightly behind. It was nonsense to assert Edwards has been a heavy favorite in Iowa.

[SaveElmer]

17. Edwards has made Iowa his firebreak...

He has spent more time there than anyone...he is banking on winning it...and until recently was ahead in the polls there...

He is ahead nowhere else except NC, he loses Iowa I don't see where he goes for delegates...Clinton will probably take New Hampshire, Florida and Nevada, and either Obama or Clinton will take South Carolina...

Edwards needs the momentum from Iowa to push him up a notch in these early primaries...

[draft_mario_cuomo]

20. I admit it

;)

The plus side is this is all they have to smear Edwards. If he is still this strong in Iowa after the hits he has taken in recent weeks he has a strong chance of rebounding. Look at McCain and HRC. Everyone thought McCain was done a few weeks ago and that HRC was fading. Now both have solidly re-established themselves as the front-runners (Giuliani leads in the national polls through his image but he is a distant 3rd in NH and is tied for 2nd in Iowa. He has no real shot in SC. IMO McCain is now the true Republican front-runner).

[RevCheesehead]

4. Damn.

I thought this was the first line of a joke. :P

[illinoisprogressive]

5. I never knew you belonged to mydd. never saw your name there.

cool diary./

[SaveElmer]

6. Yeah I have for a while...

Just don't post that much

[BigRed1975]

9. oh yeah..!!!

Looks like a real race in Iowa. This is not good for Edwards. He's spent the last 4 years campaigning and visiting every county in Iowa just to lock that state down. A second place finish there and he's done, especially since South Carolina appears to have slipped out of his grasp.

Big Red

[SaveElmer]

11. If Obama or Hillary take Iowa...

It'll be a two person race...

Unless Richardson has made a move by then....

[FrenchieCat]

12. Interesting......

but of course anything can happen between now and January 2008!

[JI7]

13. looks like Obama's focusing more on low key events

where people can actually get to know him and his position on issues is paying off.

[AtomicKitten]

21. damn - that's close

n/t

[Alamom]

22. Very interesting. Thanks, SaveElmer. eom

[Tellurian]

23. K&R

[PresidentObama]

24. Edwards still has the advantage in Iowa. But glad to see we've got a horse race.

Wouldn't say this is necessarily bad for Edwards. It was pretty much expected that the race would tighten up in Iowa. But I'd still say Edwards has the clear lead in Iowa.

[seasat]

25. In that poll, Richardson is up to 7%.

That is a good improvement for him in Iowa.

[rinsd]

26. He also is up to 10% in NH according to Gallup (nt)