Why is Hillary tanking in the Intrade prediction market...

[jefferson_dem]

...if she's polling so well (according to some)?

Hillary is down 1.8, for the Dem Party nomination.

Contract B Qty Bid Ask A Qty Last Vol Chge
2008DEM.NOM.CLINTON 20 51.1 52.3 11 51.0 167.8k -1.8
2008DEM.NOM.OBAMA 10 28.6 28.8 68 28.8 130.9k +0.6
2008DEM.NOM.GORE 61 9.8 10.0 14 9.8 183.1k -0.8
2008DEM.NOM.EDWARDS 78 7.3 7.6 3 7.1 77.5k +0.1
2008DEM.NOM.RICHRDSN 5 2.1 2.2 99 2.1 54.7k +0.6

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/trading/t_index.jsp?selConID=177134

[rinsd]

1. "if she's polling so well (according to some)?"

So in your infinite wisom you ignore the hundreds of pols out there showing Clinton doing quite well for an online bookie.

Good luck with that.

On edit: You do realize that this shows Hillary kicking ass beyond what any poll does right?

[jefferson_dem]

5. I certainly don't claim infinite wisdom and have recently seen mixed poll results.

I'm merely posing the question.

Seems you think such online prediction markets are unrelated or oblivious to the poll results you are privy to. Thanks for your feedback.

[wyldwolf]

6. but you do trust an online bookie over established polling

[jefferson_dem]

12. No more than the same "bookies" consider individual and team stats in establishing NFL lines.

[rinsd]

9. Your question is faulty. You claimed she is tanking when she is destroying Obama & Edward

You are misreading the trading numbers while Hillary has slipped 1.6, she still leads 51 to 28.6

In the GE she has lost 4.6 but she is still winning handily 38.8 to 17.

The whole thing works on a zero to 100 scale. The closer to 100 the more likely the event is going to happen.

[wyldwolf]

wow! Look at the percentages she is beating Obama by (who only gains 0.4!)

[rinsd]

4. LOL...JeffersonDem doesn't even realize it.

[jefferson_dem]

7. I'm aware of the top line numbers, silly, but i also like to watch trends.

A slip of 1.8 is not insignificant.

Maybe she can pull things together by the next Intrade report... ;)

[rinsd]

10. You have no idea of what the time frame is.

Check out this chart

http://data.tradesports.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?contractId=177134&tradeURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.intrade.com&sent=&dataType=on&timePeriodType=LastMonth&recentlyDays=14&chartSize=L&volume=on&chartType=CP&priceBand=None&movingAv1Type=None&movingAv1Slices=10&movingAv2Type=None&movingAv2Slices=25&indicator1=None&indicator2=None&indicator3=None&indicator4=None&Button1=Update+Chart

[jefferson_dem]

11. Touche.

Ouch. Ok, maybe to say "tanking" was a bit of an overstatement...

Still, a decline of 1.8 is not insignificant - likely indicative of a course correction after her post-debate "bounce".

[William769]

15. There is alot that poster doesn't realize.

[primative1]

2. awesome site ...

Got to love it :)

? Contract B Qty Bid Ask A Qty Last Vol Chge
CHENEY.RESIGN.JUN07 20 1.5 2.2 1 1.8 1574 +0.1
CHENEY.RESIGN.DEC07 2 6.0 11.0 10 8.7 900 +0.2

[mtnsnake]

3. Every candidate wishes they could tank like her

Funny how she's "tanking" according to you, but she's top of the list of her field. Some tanking.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

8. Why don't you post on their forum and ask?

http://forum.tradesports.com/eve/forums/a/frm/f/859603632

[Double T]

13. ...and bookmaker polls have so damn much credibility.

Get Real!!!

[jefferson_dem]

14. Easy there. I wouldn't be so dismissive...

...

Part of the reason for that growth is that markets have proved more reliable than polls, said Justin Wolfers, an economics professor who teaches a business school class on prediction markets at the University of Pennsylvania. The University of Iowa’s electronic market has correctly called every presidential race since its inception in 1988 and come within one point of guessing the total percentage of votes received by the winner.

Wolfers predicted that cable news shows would turn to prediction-market experts for analysis in 2008.
“My forecast is that they’ll either have someone in the studio whose job it is to track the markets, or the James Carvilles of the world will learn how to interpret the markets, and they’ll integrate that into their commentaries,” he said.

Recent developments suggest he might be right. Last month, Slate magazine started publishing hourly updates of the latest data from several prediction markets.

"If a single prediction market is wiser than the pundits and the polls, imagine how wise all the prediction markets are together," the magazine said. "That's the idea behind Slate's 'Political Futures,' which offers a comprehensive guide to all the big political prediction markets.”

In 2006, RealClearPolitics.com, a polling site favored by political insiders, included price quotes from Intrade alongside its polls, and even Google offered its users the chance to personalize their homepage with updated quotes from Intrade.

http://jscms.jrn.columbia.edu/cns/2007-04-24/goldberg-politicalstocktraders