Chris Bowers at MyDD: Current state of the race...Hillary in a strong position...

[SaveElmer]

From Chris Bowers...


First six states (as of now) Hillary leads in 5:

Iowa

Hillary 25
Obama 21
Edwards 26.3

New Hampshire

Hillary 35
Obama 21.3
Edwards 21
Richardson 6.5

South Carolina

Hillary 31.5
Obama 27.5
Edwards 17

Florida

Hillary 41.3
Obama 18.7
Edwards 15.3

Michigan

Hillary 38
Obama 25
Edwards 14

Nationally

Hillary 36.9 - 40.1
Obama 24.9 - 26.4
Edwards 13.1 - 14.7

Money on Hand

Hillary 23.4 mil
Obama 17.7 mil
Edwards 9.6 mil
Richardson 5 mil

# Only candidates who receive at least 5% in one of the poll averages are shown. In any given poll average, only the averages of candidates who surpass 5.0% are shown. Polls can be found on Polling Report, Pollster.com, and Real Clear Politics.

# The caucus and primary dates represent my current best guess for when they will take place, rather than fixed dates. My reasoning behind the calendar goes like this. With Florida moving to January 29th, Michigan's threat to join any non-IA, NV, NH and SC state moving before February 5th will cause them to move to January 29th. Further, South Carolina has threatened to move up in response to Florida's move, and January 22nd is the most likely option. Also, Iowa said it would move to January 7th after the Florida decision. That makes me guess that New Hampshire moves up to January 15th, in between Iowa and South Carolina. It should be noted that this is all obviously subject to change.

[BeyondGeography]

1. If she survives the summer reading season, she'll be in good shape

Bernstein and Gerth have books coming out in June and August. If the media conversation changes from how seasoned and experienced Hillary is to how scandal-plagued the Clintons are, we'll be looking at a different race. If the world collectively shrugs its shoulders, she'll be very tough to beat.

[flyarm]

2. PERSONALLY I CAN NOT SUPPORT HER..I WANT A CLEAN HOUSE

no more bushes , no more clintons..this country is not a monarchy..and i work very closely with dem party in fla..and i do not see the support here with dem activists or the many dems i work with..it is not there for her..in fact all i hear is ..i can not support her from all who i come in contact with ..and i run a huge internet email group from the Kerry lists ...from 2004..and what i see is hardly any support for her!

not from hard core dems...

dems that volunteer and do all the work...

but i see many many many waiting for Gore!! and i hear it every day..people waiting for Gore!

fly

[SaveElmer]

4. How is someone elected Democratically a monarch...

I mean if Hillary gets the most votes, then it wouldn't be a monarchy then would it...

And are you implying there was no substantive difference between Bush and CLinton?

[flyarm]

6. we will have had 20 years of bushes and clintons when jr's term ends...

then if we have another clinton that will be 24 years..how is that not a monarchy?????????

i am 55 yrs old..that is almost 1/2 my life of *hes and Clintons!!

enough already..i want a clean freaking house..no more *hes and no more clintons!!

and i hear that from all the dems i am surrounded with in two states i live in!!

i hear it over and over again..and i agree !!

oh and another thing i hear over and over again with dems is a total resentment of Bill's buddy buddy friendship and love affair with Poppy *...and i hear it again and again..how poppy and mommy * said bill is their adopted son..well that didn't and doesn't sit well with dems i am surrounded with!!

fly

[SaveElmer]

7. So?

How is that a monarchy...

And are you telling me you see no difference between Bill Clinton and George Bush...

It's a ridiculous and arbitrary reason to not support someone...

Would you have voted against RFK for the same reason?

[flyarm]

12. so?? so many americans are tired and fed up with a two family presidency!!

so are you one of the paid posters for a certain candidate????????


hmmmmmmmm i wonder..i know some who are paid by that candidate...and i think it stinks!

don't you???????

fly

[SaveElmer]

13. ...

Wait, so you are saying since some have the temerity to support a Clinton, we are paid posters...

And again, you did not answer either of my questions...

Also, polls would indicate your assumption as they apply to t he Clinton's, is flat wrong!

[fooj]

20. I guess it all depends on WHO COUNTS THE VOTES, doesn't it?

[Arugula Latte]

10. I will hold my nose and vote for her if it comes to that ...

but, damn, it would be so much BETTER to have a fresh start!

[Poiuyt]

11. I agree. She'd be better than President Romney, or President Giuliani

But she's not my first choice

[Adelante]

3. What's with Edwards in SC?

Any insight, Elmer?

[SaveElmer]

5. Well that has baffled me as well...

But I think you can chalk that up to the African American vote...Hillary and Obama are splitting most of it, and in SC that is a very large chink of the Democratic electorate...

[rinsd]

17. 47% of SC Dem voters were African American in 2004

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/epolls/SC/index.html

[illinoisprogressive]

8. I cannot wait until Hillary crashes. That will be the best day ever.

[SaveElmer]

9. Keep dreaming my friend...

Because it is a day that will not come!!!

[papau]

14. Bill Richardson 's policy proposals became detailed today and to the left of even

Hillary's old pre-93 positions and also to the left of Edwards - and they're much larger steps than the small steps that Obama says he wants to take.

I did like the Medicare for all 55 and older, with 54 and under getting the right to buy the Senate's Health Care benefit at the same price they pay. And the Energy plan is the best out there.

This is becoming a very interesting race as Richardson breaks into double digits in Iowa.

[opihimoimoi]

15. Hillary appears to be the Best Answer to BUSH/GOP Right Wing

As such..she is the front runner....Why denigrate her and give the GOP better odds?

[fooj]

16. Give the GOP better odds?

IMO, it's a win/win for the GOP, either way. A vote for Hillary, that is.



I've decided that women can run everything so George and I can play more golf.- Bill Clinton (UNH Commencement 2007)

Emphasis on more.

[TwilightGardener]

19. This makes me suspicious as well.

[opihimoimoi]

21. They will do their best to swift boat her...and fail.....The GOP have no strengths other than deciet

distraction, and BS

[Forkboy]

18. News from the Bleedin' Obvious Bureau.