POLL: Only Obama beats McCain and Ghouliani head-to-head

[jefferson_dem]

Released: May 23, 2007
Zogby: Obama Leads All Republicans in General Election Head to Head Contests

Moderates hold the key as match-ups show Giuliani, McCain would defeat Clinton and Edwards

Obama would defeat all Republican opponents, including John McCain of Arizona, Rudy Giuliani of New York City, Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, and Fred Thompson of Tennessee in prospective presidential contests, the poll shows.

Meanwhile, Clinton would be defeated by both McCain and Giuliani, but would win against Romney and Thompson, the survey shows. Democrat John Edwards, the former senator from North Carolina, would also lose to McCain and Giuliani but defeats Romney and Thompson.

Overall, Obama would defeat McCain by a 47% to 43% margin, with the remaining 10% not sure. Against McCain, Obama does much better than Clinton among independents and Republicans, the survey shows. He wins 14% of the Republican vote, while just 8% of GOPers would cross the aisle for Clinton. Among independents, Obama wins 42% support against McCain, while Clinton wins 39% support. In both contests, McCain leads the two Democratic rivals among independents.

There is a big swing between the McCain–Obama contest and the McCain–Clinton contest among moderate voters, which in this survey included a partisan make–up of 38% Democrats, 25% Republicans, and 38% independents. In the McCain–Clinton contest, moderates favor McCain by a 49% to 45% edge, but in the McCain–Obama contest, moderates swing to favor Obama by a 49% to 41% margin. In contests against Giuliani, Obama enjoys a similar advantage compared to Clinton among these key swing voters.

Among independents, Giuliani narrowly tops Clinton, 44% to 43%, but Obama holds a huge 56% to 30% edge over Giuliani among those same voters.

<SNIP>

General Election match-ups:

McCain 47%, Clinton 43%
Giuliani 48%, Clinton 43%

McCain 43%, Obama 46%
Giuliani 42%, Obama 48%

McCain 46%, Edwards 41%
Giuliani 47%, Edwards 43%

McCain 52%, Richardson 31%
Giuliani 50%, Richardson 35%

Romney 40%, Clinton 48%
F. Thompson 41%, Clinton 48%

Romney 35%, Obama 52%
F. Thompson 35%, Obama 52%

Romney 36%, Edwards 50%
F. Thompson 40%, Edwards 48%

Romney 37%, Richardson 40%
F. Thompson 40%, Richardson 39%

The telephone survey, conducted May 17–20, 2007, included 993 respondents and carries a margin of error of +/– 3.2 percentage points.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1316

[rinsd]

1. I'm not buying this poll.

First of,f as much as I love her Hillary is not that far ahead (39 to 24).

Second, there is no freaking way that McCain is beating both Hillary and Edwards.

[DemDem07]

2. GOBAMA!

Will the Hillary camp finally come to the realization that her numbers just aren't there for someone of her stature to be this low?

[rinsd]

3. Ummm Hillary is killing Obama in this particular poll, up 15 pts (nt)

[DemDem07]

4. Allow me to refresh your mental browser :)

Released: May 23, 2007
Zogby: Obama Leads All Republicans in General Election Head to Head Contests

Moderates hold the key as match-ups show Giuliani, McCain would defeat Clinton and Edwards

Obama would defeat all Republican opponents, including John McCain of Arizona, Rudy Giuliani of New York City, Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, and Fred Thompson of Tennessee in prospective presidential contests, the poll shows.

Meanwhile, Clinton would be defeated by both McCain and Giuliani, but would win against Romney and Thompson, the survey shows. Democrat John Edwards, the former senator from North Carolina, would also lose to McCain and Giuliani but defeats Romney and Thompson.

Overall, Obama would defeat McCain by a 47% to 43% margin, with the remaining 10% not sure. Against McCain, Obama does much better than Clinton among independents and Republicans, the survey shows. He wins 14% of the Republican vote, while just 8% of GOPers would cross the aisle for Clinton. Among independents, Obama wins 42% support against McCain, while Clinton wins 39% support. In both contests, McCain leads the two Democratic rivals among independents.

There is a big swing between the McCain–Obama contest and the McCain–Clinton contest among moderate voters, which in this survey included a partisan make–up of 38% Democrats, 25% Republicans, and 38% independents. In the McCain–Clinton contest, moderates favor McCain by a 49% to 45% edge, but in the McCain–Obama contest, moderates swing to favor Obama by a 49% to 41% margin. In contests against Giuliani, Obama enjoys a similar advantage compared to Clinton among these key swing voters.

Among independents, Giuliani narrowly tops Clinton, 44% to 43%, but Obama holds a huge 56% to 30% edge over Giuliani among those same voters.

<SNIP>

General Election match-ups:

McCain 47%, Clinton 43%
Giuliani 48%, Clinton 43%

McCain 43%, Obama 46%
Giuliani 42%, Obama 48%

McCain 46%, Edwards 41%
Giuliani 47%, Edwards 43%

McCain 52%, Richardson 31%
Giuliani 50%, Richardson 35%

Romney 40%, Clinton 48%
F. Thompson 41%, Clinton 48%

Romney 35%, Obama 52%
F. Thompson 35%, Obama 52%

Romney 36%, Edwards 50%
F. Thompson 40%, Edwards 48%

Romney 37%, Richardson 40%
F. Thompson 40%, Richardson 39%

The telephone survey, conducted May 17–20, 2007, included 993 respondents and carries a margin of error of +/– 3.2 percentage points.

[rinsd]

6. Psssssstttt. I wouldn't get too excited about a poll showing your guy down 15 pts.

Though take heart, I think this poll is an outlier. The race between Clinton and Obama is closer than thatand the idea of McCain beating either Clinton or Edwards is laughable.

On edit: I wanted to add that I do believe Obama would beat Giuliani or McCain and other polling supports that.

[DemDem07]

7. Psssssstttt. I wouldn't get too excited about your gal

being this far behind at his point. With her low positives and high negatives, it's all but over for team Hillary at this point.

You use that word outlier quite often...when you don't like the results. :)

BTW I haven't decided who I am going to caucus for yet, only who I'm not going to caucus for. ;)

[rinsd]

8. "You use that word outlier quite often...when you don't like the results"

LOL. I should actually like the results because Hillary has widened her lead but seeing Edwards losing any head to head matchup strikes me as inconsistent with other polling.

Here's a link with polls for head to head matchups

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008

This poll is the only one showing Edwards losing and Hillary losing by that much.

[skipos]

9. No, they will never come to that realization.

Hillary underperforms Obama or Edwards in about 95% of general election polls, but you will have a tough time finding a Hillary support on DU who will admit it.

[DemDem07]

10. I'm sorry, I can't get behind Hillary and her campaign to nowhere.

Her much touted, long anticipated candidacy has been a bust to this point with numbers this low despite a the name recognition and vault of cash.

Some seem more than willing to allow her mediocre campaign to suck all the air out of this race though. :shrug:

[zulchzulu]

5. I like the poll, but it's way too early

Jus' sayin'.