CBS/NYT Poll: Hillary leads Obama by 22, Edwards by 32

[SaveElmer]

Hillary: 46
Obama: 24
Edwards: 14

Guiliani's lead over McCain slips


http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/05/24/opinion/polls/main2848857.shtml

[Bullet1987]

1. YAWWWNNN!!!

[SaveElmer]

2. Yeah I can see why you would say that...nt

[LSparkle]

5. All these polls are B.S. -- there's no way she's that far ahead

and after her tap-dance on the supplemental it'll be even less representative.

[ChiciB1]

51. I TOTALLY Agree With You... It's Media Spin & They've Been

hyping her since the very beginning! In the end, that's when it counts.

Here where I live, I don't see ANYTHING like these kinds of numbers... in fact I see MORE people peeling AWAY from her than ever before. New York IS New York!

Sorry, I'm not buying this!!

[durrrty libby]

6. She will be a great president. Maybe the greatest

[SaveElmer]

10. I agree she certainly has that potential!!!!...nt

[Brassballs]

20. Yes HRC will be the First woman president and one of the best..eom

[ElizabethDC]

21. Indeed, and I look forward to her presidency. n/t

[ihelpu2see]

49. Hillary is 3rd on my list, maybe 4th, she would have to step more left and

pick a good VP.... That being said if she is the nominee.... I don't see an indi and definitely NO Republicant that would get my vote...

[ElizabethDC]

3. Yeah, I'd be yawning too if I were you! n/t

[William769]

16. I know it must suck for you right now, but guess what?

It's only going to get worse for you.

[ShortnFiery]

4. Gawd, the political elites are still trying to tell us "it's over" before ...

well ... "it's over." :eyes:

[William769]

18. Who said it's over?

I believe it says in the lead. Gon't you just hate it when that happens.

[Sukie1941]

7. Hillary is on my new list

who I will NEVER vote for.

[SaveElmer]

9. Looks to me...

Like you are in a very small minority within the party...

[ElizabethDC]

13. Any reason in particular? n/t

[durrrty libby]

14. Really? So if she is the nominee, you will stay home or

vote for a puke? How sad:silly: :think: :freak: :hangover: :spank:

[ChiciB1]

52. If Push Comes To SHOVE... I'll Vote For Her... But I WON'T Campaign

for her! I'm getting very tired of the CORPORATIST et al telling ME who I NEED to support!

They want here because the REPUKES want her! Sorry, just my opinion, because it's been this way since the beginning! And then we hear ALL the talking heads saying how much "dirt" they have on her that she will never be able to overcome, yatty, yatty, yatty! One of my MAIN reasons for choosing a different candidate! I don't want Repukes making MY decision for me, THEY'VE done quite enough already!

MORE THAN ENOUGH!

[Forkboy]

40. She's the only one I won't vote for.

She would have to something very bold a dramatic between the Primaries and the General to change my mind.And she's not the bold,dramatic type.

Besides,she doesn't want my vote and here in Mass she won't need it.

[Adelante]

8. Clinton took a third of Edwards support, it looks like

Damn, 46% is high for now, isn't it?

[rinsd]

11. Its the highest I have seen her.

[Adelante]

15. It may be my aging memory

But I don't remember numbers like that in 2004 until around November sometime.

[rinsd]

17. Take a gander. Polls weren't that high until after several primaries

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

[Bullet1987]

19. which is why it's BS...

[Adelante]

22. Yeah, you're right

Amazing, really.

[laugle]

12. Go "Hill and Bill" the "DYNAMIC DUO" because we need 2 president's to clean-up the Bush mess! nt

[Auntie Bush]

54. Ditto for me! I'd also

love to see a woman president and I'd love to have Bill back in the White House or traveling around the world redeeming our lost prestige. It will be so nice to have two intelligent people running this country.

I think they learned a lot of good lessons from the past and are ready to take the helm and lead immediately...all seasoned and ready to go. No one else that's running on either side has their credentials and experience on the world stage. Bill will be there anytime she needs him and I'd feel we were in good competent hands. I love Obama...but would feel safer with Bill and Hill. Obama is young and has plenty of time to gain the foreign affairs experience he needs.

I also don't think Hillary is as centrist as some believe. She had to be if she wants to win the Primary and the General election. Hopefully she will get us a better health care plan once she's in office.

Clark is the only person I'd feel more confident...but I'm afraid we're not going to have that choice. :cry: Maybe Clark will be her VP! :bounce:

[bigdarryl]

23. BULLSHIT there is no way in hell shes that far

[Colobo]

24. She is still leading, but those numbers are ridiculous.

[SaveElmer]

25. Probably not that far ahead...but it is the trend that is important...

She gained 7 points since the last CBS poll...

[Bullet1987]

26. Nobody jumps all those points for no damn reason...so I call BS.

And most polls outside of the ones where they've been campaigning the most...are almost all name-recognition.

[SaveElmer]

27. I can just see it...

Headlines on November 2008..."Hillary leading by 8"...

DU says "It's all name recognition"

Sorry, she is running a very effective campaign...and it is working...

[Bullet1987]

30. November 2008 is one thing...

May 2007...almost seven months away from the first caucus (one where Clinton isn't even leading) is something TOTALLY different. And how many times have I said there is no freaking national caucus!! So why does this poll even matter?

[fooj]

35. Until Al declares. Then it's over. Period.

I live in California and I've yet to speak with anyone who has committed to supporting her. But hey...it's all good. BTW- you might want to consider posting these poll #'s (that change daily) over in the Hillary forum. That's what it's there for. I perused it the other day to see if there was any info of interest and I was surprised to see that you don't frequent the place. A huge Hillary advocate such as yourself should take advantage of everything available here at DU. Have you checked it out? You really should. It's where like-minded people gather to share ideas and information. Isn't DU a great place? There's a forum for everyone.

[JI7]

28. i wonder if Hillary's increase has to do with Bill Clinton's being in public

in the recent days ?

[Adelante]

36. It could

But the rise in this poll for Clinton looks like it all came from Edwards, so it might be connected to something not working out for him. Why none of those seven points went to Obama is an interesting question, too. Not that it won't be subject to change over time, but interesting for the moment.

[fooj]

43. Like THIS public appearance?

[illinoisprogressive]

29. Political Wire writes today that name recognition unchanged since the race began

Apparently we are where we were in Jan. The name recognition of people running is virtually unchanged since the race began. This means people are still picking according to name and not the candidate they will vote for in the end.

"Despite the remarkably early start on this year's presidential campaign and the high-visibility presence of the major candidates on television news shows and in televised debates, the name identification of the leading candidates or potential candidates has not changed much so far this year," according to a new Gallup Poll.

The leading candidates, in order of familiarity with voters:

* Hillary Clinton - 98%
* Rudy Giuliani - 86%
* John Edwards - 81%
* John McCain - 80%
* Barack Obama - 75%
* Mitt Romney - 46%
* Fred Thompson - 38%

http://politicalwire.com/

[BeyondGeography]

31. OK, but how's that whole IOWA thing going?

Where primary voters are paying closer attention, she fares much worse. Keep the champagne on ice, Hillarians.

[Indy_Dem_Defender]

32. No offense

Hillary Supporters, but I still haven't met a single person in everyday real life (DU doesn't count) who said they would vote for her in the primary or general elections. I've been doing grassroots campaigning for Obama the past 3 months, and I've met many Edwards supporters, but not a single Hillary Supporter. The excuse could be used that I'm in Indiana, but having small talk with a few hundred people in this time, not a single person showed her any support. So it's not hard for me to believe that "liberal media" :sarcasm: really is trying their hardest to make it appear Hillary is the democratic front runner.

[DU GrovelBot]

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[fooj]

34. You might want to cross post this in the HILLARY FORUM.

That's what it's for, right?

[Adelante]

37. GDP is for discussion of the primaries and politics in general

I don't see why you think polls wouldn't qualify.

[fooj]

42. Where did I say "polls" don't qualify?

I simply pointed out that there WAS a Hillary forum, an additional option. BTW- technically, the primaries begin this January...as in January 2008. We have some major crap rolling down the hill that needs our attention, or haven't you noticed? Knee deep in poll numbers, perhaps? Poll numbers that will change over a thousand times before the primaries even get under way? Spare me the lecture. The only poll numbers that COUNT are the day of the election. Newsflash: apparently they don't count, either. For example, Kerry polled ahead of Bush how many times? Hell, Election Day 2004 he polled ahead of Bush. Big deal. What did that get us? Where are we sitting now, eh?

[Adelante]

44. It sounded to me as if you were saying polls belong in candidates' forums

And not in GDP. I disagreed. Excuse the hell out of me.

[fooj]

45. No worries. Just clarifying...

[Adelante]

47. Okay, thanks

:)

[zulchzulu]

38. I do a fair amount of grassroots stuff in the street and still haven't met one HRC fan

Maybe it's Wisconsin (Madison/Milwaukee). Or Iowa (Dubuque). Or Missouri (St. Louis). Or Pennsylvania (Philadelphia). Or California (Bay Area). Nobody... I'm not kidding...

:shrug:

[Dawgs]

39. Agree.

Everyone I talk to says Edwards or Obama. I've also met three Republicans that would vote for Obama - never mention Clinton.

[bunkerbuster1]

41. Favorite part of the story? The "satisfied with the contenders" numbers

I'm glad to see the Pubbies are so unhappy (just 38% satisfied with their contenders, vs. 63% of Democratic voters are satisfied with theirs.)

[spooky3]

46. Surveyed = Dem primary voters. HUGE margin of error in this poll.

It appears that CBS polled a TOTAL of 1125 voters, then had to separate them into Repub. primary voters, Dem. primary voters, and independents and others. Interestingly, nearly all the items reported were for the subsamples, but CBS reported MOE only for the full sample, and the biggest influence on MOE in a random sample is the size of the sample.

So, we have to guess about the MOE for the numbers they and you in the OP reported.

Even if I made the most generous assumption that everyone leaning Democratic was considered a "Dem. primary voter" (and that would include a lot of people who are Dems. but not very interested in politics) the sample could not have been more than 350-400 voters. With a sample size that small, the MOE is probably in 6 percentage point range or higher. Further, because they had to oversample African Americans in order to get a reasonable sample size, then weight it afterward, those 350-400 voters represent an undersampling of non-African Americans voters. That wouldn't be much of a problem in a larger sample, but in a small one, it could make a big difference, since those non-African Americans may not have been very representative of the larger group of non-African Americans.

[Adelante]

48. Thank you, spooky

That's a good point. I did notice that in another poll, so I should have thought to look at it.

[spooky3]

50. you're welcome, WesDem!

:hi:

[Larkspur]

53. I see the corporate robber barons have Hillary as their backup candidate

They prefer a Republican robot president, but Hillary will do in a pinch.