Poll: Edwards now leads all Democrats in Florida

[antiimperialist]

A new poll conducted by Datamar (May 14-18) has found that John Edwards now tops the preferences of Democrats likely to vote in the state primaries in 2008. The lead is slight, but a big jump compared to results from other polls.

Results:
John Edwards 25.7%
Hillary Clinton 24%
Barack Obama 18.9%

[FrenchieCat]

1. Is there a margin of error?

Cause if so, his lead is awfully thin, if there is one! :shrug:

[rinsd]

2. Do most polls go to to tenths? That implies a sort of accuracy does it not?

[Nimrod2005]

3. Hillary can never ever win in Florida...Too many Clinton haters, Obama can never win here, too many

racists bastards Nazis, Richardson has a chance or the safe bet is a nice clean looking white boy with a southern accent.

[ElizabethDC]

4. IMHO, no Democrat can win FL in '08

but I think that Hillary will win the primary here.

[Nimrod2005]

5. No way Hillary can win the primary. I agree Florida is red in 08.

[ElizabethDC]

7. These polls suggest something different

yes, they're from last week, but this new poll - for the moment at least - appears to be something of an abberation. It *could* be indicative of a new trend, but I'll wait till the other polls start to follow suit.

May 14, 2007
POLL: St Pete/News9 Florida Primary

A new St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9 statewide survey of 901 registered voters in Florida (conducted 5/6 through 5/9 by Schroth, Eldon & Associates (D) and Polling Company (R) ) finds:

Among Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton (at 42%) leads Sen. Barack Obama (19%) and former Sen. John Edwards (12%) in a statewide primary.

link: http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_st_petenews9_florida_prim.php

May 16, 2007
POLL: Strategic Vision (R) Florida Primary

A new Strategic Vision (R) statewide survey of 800 likely primary voters in Florida (conducted 5/11 through 5/13) finds:

Among Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton (at 37%) leads Sen. Barack Obama (20%) and former Sen. John Edwards (19%) in a statewide primary.

link: http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_strategic_vision_r_florid.php

[snowbear]

8. She has one supporter down there..

I know, because I was just down there last month and my big brother is a major Hillaryite.

When I asked him why he liked her, he said he just wants Big Dawg back in the Whitehouse.



He ignored me when I told him he wouldn't be voting for the Dawg --->

I agree with those who say that HRC can't win Florida --- but I disagree with those who flat out insist Florida will go red.

It the elections are rigged for the 3rd presidential election in a row, yeah.. it will.

But if they're on the up and up.. Edwards and Richardson will likely both do well in Florida.

[ElizabethDC]

9. Well, I'm in FL and I'm a big Hillary supporter and I know a lot of others who are also

which is why she's been doing so well in the polls here.

I think that Florida will almost certainly go Red in '08, mainly because this is one of the few states where Democrats didn't make any real gains in the '06 elections. Over the past few years, FL has just gotten redder and redder. I still see Bush/Cheney stickers everywhere I go.

[HockeyMom]

10. Moving to Florida in 3 weeks

Still undecided between Edwards and Obama.

Are all us Blue "Transplants" suddenly going to turn RED because we changed our geography? I don't think so.

PS. My Republican husband has lived in Florida for 3 years and hasn't voted since moving. You will be ONE UP with ME. :dem:

[ElizabethDC]

11. There are a lot of red transplants, too, unfortunately

which I think is part of the problem.

[snowbear]

12. Ok.. here's a question then Elizabeth..

If you insist that Florida will go fire engine red in '08, why are you supporting a candidate who couldn't win Ohio or any of the other states we need to win?

Sure -- she's a fantastic senator, she was an incredible first lady, and she's brilliant.

But you said it yourself.

"Florida has just gotten redder and redder"


(Although. Most of my family lives there from one end of the state to the other, and all would disagree with you)

Still..

Have you ever jotted down the states you honestly think she can win?

I think she can win NY (maybe), MA (perhaps) and possibly one or two other states. And that isn't going to cut it.

She doesn't play well in Peoria.

We HAVE to put up a competetive candidate.

[William769]

13. Why can't Mrs. Clinton win Ohio?

Last poll I saw from Ohio she had a comfortable lead.

ON EDIT: and what do you base this on? "I think she can win NY (maybe), MA (perhaps) and possibly one or two other states. And that isn't going to cut it.

She doesn't play well in Peoria.

We HAVE to put up a competetive candidate."

[ElizabethDC]

14. I disagree with you on the states that Hillary can win

but it's a moot point because we don't know what's going to happen. I think she's competitive, and the polls say that she is (even in the ones that have her losing to a Repub candidate have her well within the margin of error - I've never seen her down more than one or two points). She can win a lot more than three or four states, I guarantee it.

She may not play well in Peoria, but I think she'll take Illinois in the general - after all, it's where she's from!:evilgrin:

[snowbear]

17. Oy..

Now I've heard everything.

HRC winning Ohio?!?!?

Sorry Elizabeth. I love ya.. .. but tain't gonna happen.

Do the math. She is too polarizing in far too many states to win the Whitehouse back for Democrats.



Fortunately, I do think we do have candidates who can win. But she's not one of them.

[ElizabethDC]

20. Actually, it was William who just said she could win Ohio

I happen to agree with him, but that's okay.

[snowbear]

22. Sooo... wait. That means you don't think she can win Florida OR Ohio !?!

Elizabeth, yer driving me crazy!!

[ElizabethDC]

23. No! I just said I thought she could win Ohio!

but I didn't specifically say it initially - it was William who did, and I said that I agree with him.

I think she has as good a chance of winning Florida as any of the other Dems.

[William769]

25. And I know we will get asked ElizabethDC

Heres the poll I mentioned.


http://www.wane.com/global/story.asp?s=6528484&ClientType=Printable

[snowbear]

34. Oh boy.. another political poll a =YEAR OUT=

939 Ohioans polled.

The two candidates with the highest name recognition happen to come out on top.

Call off the rest of the Primary guys.. the polls as of May 2007 will look exactly the same in 8 months.



I'm saying I don't think HRC can win in all but maybe a handful of states when the General rolls around.

If she wasn't a polarizing figure.. ... things would be different.

Reality bites.

We need a candidate who can paint the red map blue.

Sorry if you disagree. We go can around and around forever on this..

But if you've counted up all the states you think she'll easily win in the General, how many electoral votes do you see her with as compared to the other candidate(s)?

[William769]

35. A year out?

Florida's is only eight months out. And because of that Iowa, New hampshire and South Carolina are think of changing to still be in the lead that would put it only seven months out.

ON EDIT: and to answer your last question, anywhere between 285 and 310.

[William769]

24. All Kerry had to do was win Florida or Ohio to Win the Presidency

And we all know what happened in those two states. They are both now under new management. Your map is useless.

[jcrew2001]

16. I think Hillary would better win the WH if she were Governor

Senators have too much baggage - Hmmm...why didn't she run for Governor in 2006??

[snowbear]

18. LOL...

Does being a governor erase a person's senate baggage?

Whole lotta baggage

[jcrew2001]

29. It makes her look like a leader, but it didn't work for dukakis

so who knows

[Pacifist Patriot]

21. NNNOOOOOOOooooo

Florida is only red because software hackers say so.

[InvisibleTouch]

43. It was blue in 2000...

...if the votes had actually been counted.

In some of the wealthier Gulf Coast cities there are a lot of rethug bumper stickers, to be sure. But out on the barrier islands it's pure blue. I don't know the Atlantic coast that well, but I understand Miami is solidly blue as well.

[William769]

6. Got that right.

Florida belongs to Mrs. Clinton.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

33. Edwards is leading Giuliani even in Kentucky and is tied with him in Virginia

I think Edwards can win Florida, a purple state, in the general election.

[jcrew2001]

15. Edwards is clean

just like Obama, says Biden, haha

[snowbear]

19. But you just said senators have too much baggage...

Or did you just mean "current" senators?

[jcrew2001]

28. Biden said Obama was "clean"

Yes, I agree that current Senators aren't presidential because they are at the whim of the President and must vote with the majority, which makes them followers to both the majority and to the presidential veto. Governors or outsiders can campaign on their own merits and can follow their own agenda, instead of campaigning while capitulating on the agenda that president bush sets forth.

I would just abstain from all votes and say that President Bush sucks. If I was from a blue state, I would vote against Bush every time - who cares about winning re-election as a senator, if you're running for president, you have to make up your own rules and your own agenda, you can't be put into a corner by the congress and the president.

[datahead]

26. I honestly don't think the Democrats can win in Florida

as long as Jeb Bush is in charge.

[ElizabethDC]

27. Good news! Jeb Bush is no longer in charge!

Charlie Crist is the new governor - and despite the fact that he's a Republican, he's turning out to be quite liberal.

[jcrew2001]

30. isn't crist a bachelor, a committed bachelor

who swears off women

[ElizabethDC]

31. Indeed! You'd be correct about that

and evidently, he and Mark Foley used to be roommates when they both served in the state senate.

[William769]

Yuck.

At one time Crist looked dooable, but Foley? :puke:

[DU GrovelBot]

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[seasat]

36. That poll has a weird demographic mix.

They only polled 2.2% of Hispanic origin and Florida has a population close to 20% Hispanic.

I think the state is a toss up for the Democratic primary. This is assuming the primary votes in Florida are not disqualified because the state bumped the primary date up. From my personal perspective, I lean toward Richardson, a good friend of mine supports Obama, another supports Edwards, and my Wife supports Hillary. I'm in the Tampa Bay area.

Florida is a weird mix. The top of the state is conservative, the middle moderate, and the bottom liberal. There some variations depending on city but that is the general trend. Hillary will probably do well in the top of the state while Obama and Edwards will do well in the Southern portions. Edwards possibly may do well in the top of the state depending on whether they still remember him as the moderate candidate from 2004 or they get to know him as the liberal candidate in 2008.

Richardson could draw from the entire state depending on which issues and his record he emphasizes in his campaign. Richardson has things that could hurt or put him over the top of the others in this state. His support of gay rights and immigration could hurt him in N Florida but help him in S Florida. However, his pro-second amendment stance and fiscal moderation could help him in N Florida but hurt him in S Florida. If he tailored his campaign to each region, he could win big in this state.

I don't think Florida will go red in '08, depending on our candidate. The Tampa Bay region is trending bluer based on the last election. Our state party is doing a little better after several years of terrible leadership. We just need to break the campaign money strangle hold that keeps the Republicans in power. They've not only gamed the voting system but have campaign finance rules that heavily favor incumbents and gerrymandered the state in their favor.

[venable]

37. i think we can win florida. we have the last two elections.

no reason to change now.

[antiimperialist]

41. Five year old children don't vote

Don't show me the whole Floridian hispanic population. That is irrelevant. Show me the historic Hispanic turnout on primaries before you presumed that this group is being undersampled.

[mckeown1128]

38. cool!!!

All of those Clintonistas here on DU are always arguing that Clinton already has the nomination. OK.. to review the most recent polls for the first five primaries.

Iowa = Edwards ahead
Nevada = Hillary ahead
New Hampshire = Hillary ahead (of Obama by two points)
South Carolina = Obama ahead
Florida = Edwards ahead

Well I would usually give a Gobama but this needs a Goedwards

[William769]

39. Where do you get your talking points?

No one that I know of has augured or even said the Mrs. Clinton has the nomination.

[jazzjunkysue]

40. Edwards is our new president. He's good and he can win.

Period.

[w4rma]

42. Good! We need a President Edwards right now. (nt)