Ugh. Alaska/Georgia are the latest lemmings. Stop the Insanity Please!!!!!

[Perky]

By JIM HALPIN
Associated Press Writer


ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) -- Georgia and Alaska joined the growing list of states pushing up their presidential primary voting to Feb. 5, a date clearly shaping up as a national primary day for Republicans and Democrats.

In Alaska, caucuses will be held Feb. 5, 2008. In 2004, Alaska Democrats held their caucus in March, while Republicans waited until the end of May to hold their convention.

"We wanted to make sure Alaska had a reasonable standing in the public debate," said Randy Ruedrich, chairman of the Republican Party of Alaska. "We're going to be on Feb. 5, along with what appears to be over half the country."

In Georgia, Republican Gov. Sonny Perdue signed a bill on Tuesday that pushed the state's primaries up by a month, from March 4 to Feb. 5.

Fifteen states, led by delegate-rich New York, California and New Jersey, have moved their primary voting to Feb. 5 and at least five states, including Illinois and Texas, are close to making a similar shift.

The first problem with the bunching is that if someone...whomever...does well in the Iowa/NH tilts. they have momentum going into SC/FL and then 2/5 winds up being a ratifier with no time to do anything except commercials after commercial after commercial. What if we do not make the best choice in the first round and we have no way to un ring the bell after 2/5?

The second problem us that the bunching means that everyone is still going to be on the ballot in each state on 2/5 there is little reason to pull off the ballot until after 2/5 because you want to have delegates should 2/5 not produce an inevitable candidate.

The Third and biggest problem is that should IA/NH, NV and SC/FL not produce a clear leader/presumptive nominee then it means 2/5 may in fact wind up being a push where the top three are still fully in the race. the problem is that the last 20 contests are not enough to push anyone over the top in terms of delegate count and that means a brokered convention.

Of course the flip side of this is that the Republicans are in similar straits and perhaps they are even worse off given the geopolitics. A brokered convention for them seems almost inevitable.


Small consolation.

Are we going to have the first five contest followed by a week of nationally televised debates which would mean no one could get out in the hustings and do actual handshakes and schmoozing? Does it mean ultimately that those with the money to will rely solely on Super Bowl ads (look at the timing) and that is how we will choose a nominee?

I have no real tension with a national primary for 25 states, I just wish it was about a month later then right on top of the "early five" because there is no time to reassess the remaining pool and no reason for any of the second tier to bow out gracefully. No time for Debates, or rallies or much of anything that is local in nature.

How does this all shake out?

[Gman]

1. All formality

Hillary and Giulliani will be it.

[Perky]

4. I think you are wrong on both counts

It is going to be Romney/Huckabee and Obama/Richardson

[Perky]

5. dupe

[snappyturtle]

2. I get so mad even thinking about primary dates!

Why can't they all be on one day...period? I've never thought Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina were an accurate measure of the country and yet they set the pace. All your postulating, if this, if that, would be over if the primaries were on one day. I think with the internet, newspapers, magazines, TV appearances and the "debates" of the primary candidates voters should have a good idea of their choice. imho

[Perky]

3. I just worry about buyers' remorse

and the likelhood that no one would emerge with a majority. That means a brokered convention as well.

We have seven candidates each with geopolitcal advantages. The chance of no one geting to half the delegates needed is actually pretty damn substantial

[Anaxamander]

6. This may be a dumb question, but

what's stopping other states from moving the date of their primary to Jan. 14 or sooner to steal Iowa's thunder?

[Perky]

7. NH is reuired by state law to move it up a week before any other primary.

[Robbien]

8. Think of all the lame ducks in local races who will have to continue

in office almost eight months knowing they lost their seat in their primary back in February.

[Perky]

9. actually 11.5 months for congress critters,

they do not leave office until Jan 20, 2009

[Dr.Phool]

11. I would assume other states are like Florida.

We used to have the presidential primary in March, now January. But, we had a separate primary in August for congressional and other primaries.

[Lone_Wolf]

10. It will make for a more boring election cycle...

which will probably make for a more disinterested electorate. A disinterested electorate is good news for incumbents, but bad news for democracy.