Is Fred Thompson Going To Run? Does He Have A Chance If He Does?

[KittyWampus]

they talked him briefly on NPR while I was driving a little while ago. I haven't been paying enough attention to DU'ers discussing him and hope someone could clue me in.

Is Thompson a threat?

[ncteechur]

1. He will run and he will be great with NASCAR folks who remember him

from Days of Thunder and Hunt for Red October. He could be formidible but he needs a message other than the GOP drum beat. I don't think that same old tired message will play. I don't think the fear card will play except to the already scared 28%. Any skeletons that come out will just be blamed on Hollywood indiscretions and nobody will care.

I don't think he should be underestimated.

[movonne]

3. but he is soooo crooked...

[DemBones DemBones]

25. I'm afraid you are right, unless there are

serious scandals to derail him. A lot of people are looking for another Reagan (God only knows why!) and ol' Fred is an actor and a Republican. Reagan had scandals in his past, too (he cheated on his first wife, Jane Wyman, with Nancy Davis, and Nancy was pregnant when he married her) yet he was elected in
1980. People are less easily shocked in 2007.

I read that in his first campaign for the Senate (which he won), he rented an old red Chevy truck and drove it around Tennessee wearing old jeans and old boots. He would give speeches standing in the bed of the truck and refer to himself as "ol' Fred" and to the truck as "this old baby." Just a good ol' boy.

Don't underestimate him. He could play that role well in the MidWest and the South, probably the SouthWest, too.

Giuliani is probably too liberal for the GOP to nominate, McCain too wacky, so I can see it coming down to Thompson or Romney.

[calimary]

35. Neither do I. But if they can play off his gruff, harrumph-y appearance

and that "lovely" scowl, compared to - say - the dazzling smile and upbeat, hopeful, positive demeanor of Barack Obama perhaps, or the easy, comfy-in-his-own-skin, smiling Al Gore maybe, he may not go down as easily with the public at large as they think he will. People want the cheery guy. Not the sober, somber, grumpy-old-man type. I read an essay here somewhere recently that talked about the perceived appeal of the demeanor of a candidate. The 2000 race was cited specifically, such that voters went for the easy-going, fun, pleasant, happy candidate over the serious, sober, worried, presumably unhappy candidate. I KNOW, I KNOW - bush did NOT win legitimately. But he got close enough to steal it easily, and his demeanor helped him. It's why people responded to him and would consistently tell pollsters things like "I dunno - I just like him." Refreshing change, breath-of-fresh-air, that kind of visceral stuff. It got bush in the game close enough to steal it, so it mattered.

Same effect in play when reagan beat Jimmy Carter. The choice presented, PERCEPTION-WISE, was the sunny, optimistic, happy guy versus the somber, sober, worrying guy who'd recently bummed America out with his "malaise" speech. The sunny optimism and the smiley stuff tests better. Registers better with people. The sunny ones are the more likeable - STRICTLY ON APPEARANCES.

fred thompson is Mr. Gruff 'n' Grim. Yeah, he's Mr. Hollywood, but he's rumpled and old and grumpy-looking and stern and reminds you of the way your high school principal looked when you were sent into his office because you were about to get suspended. I just hope they can play it that way. Because he WILL be formidable.

[ccpup]

2. I don't think he does

and I'm not sure he's the threat everyone thinks he is. First, he has a bare-bones Senatorial record with little -- if any -- accomplishment. Second, he's not going to be given a Free Ride -- and Freddie LOVES free rides -- from anyone else in the overcrowded Republican field. He can't handle criticism, is infamously thin-skinned and I don't think he has the personal strength to handle the rigors of a Presidential campaign where people are actually going to (gasp!) ask you questions they'll (my God!) expect answers to.

I say he's in the first five to drag their sorry arses through the Exit Door.

[Shrek]

4. Apparently he won't actually run

Fred Thompson, Ladies And Gentlemen, Will Never So Much As Enter A Primary

[KittyWampus]

12. thanks for the link. someone mentions he's got a thin skin

[snowbear]

18. That link is from back in March..

I have a feeling he'll run, and probably even win the R's primary.

I think he'll lose in the General election to any Democrat with the exception of Kucinich, Clinton, and Dodd.

~~~

[DemBones DemBones]

26. CNN was saying this morning he will announce on July 4th. nt

[MasonJar]

5. When actors run, why are they always third rate actors? Let's have a little

Robert Redford or George Clooney.

[bigdarryl]

6. he's got two chances SLIM and NONE!!!!

[ncteechur]

7. He can portray himself as a Washington outsider because he came to DC and then

left on his own. And as for the questions he will be asked--no one has asked the current presidential place holder any tough questions except an occasional one that he doesn't bother answering.

He is in it. I'm not saying he will win but he will enter.


And yes, he has cancer--lymphoma I believe that is treatable and there is a double-standard there--he will be viewed as brave--fighting cancer and running for president at the same time--totally different from Elizabeth Edwards.

Fred Thompson is the south--pure and simple and he will be tough.

The question for me is how Mitt and Rudy handle him. They will not just fade away peacefully and give up the nomination easily.

[KittyWampus]

13. If Bush's crew want Thompson, I think they can make other GOP'ers offers they can't refuse

if you know what i mean.

[ncteechur]

8. Please keep in mind that we said that the current president...

1. Wasn't too bright.

2. Wasn't too articulate.

3. Was a draft dodger.

4. Was a muliple failure in business.

5. Was a terrible governor.

etc

etc

etc

And he won--twice. (although not legally)!

[MGKrebs]

9. If he wins the Repub nomination, who would we like to see running against him?

Forget about polls, they only tell us what has happened so far. Who can challenge Thompson most effectively?

[Clark2008]

28. People who aren't even running (yet).

In order to keep from bleeding us dry of white male swing voters in the South and mid-West, we'll need someone these Bubbas can relate to (like B. Clinton). We currently don't have that.

[Redneck Socialist]

10. Don't misunderestemate him

He's pretty much a blank slate and people can project whatever they want on him, which is going to make him a strong candidate in the republican primaries.

[mitchum]

37. Absolutely! That blank slate quality was one of bush's "strengths"

[AlinPA]

11. He will have full media support-that's enough make him tough to beat.

[blm]

21. Bingo.

.

[underpants]

14. They are going to LOVE him

He has to be the presumed leader but wait until Newt jumps in THAT is going to be fun to watch.

[KittyWampus]

15. at least Newt makes a cogent argument. He might be WRONG but at least he'll actually debate

[AndyTiedye]

41. If Debates Mattered AT ALL, Bush** Would NOT BE pRESIDENT

[AndyTiedye]

16. The Question is Who Do We Have Who Could Beat Him?

Certainly not Hillary Clinton, or Barak Obama, or John Edwards.

[illinoisprogressive]

24. wrong. Obama and Edwards are strong against all gop candidates

[AndyTiedye]

42. I Sure Hope You Are Right, But It Doesn't Look Good

Thompson would eliminate any possibility of taking a Southern state, which would have been Edwards's only strength.
Obama vs Thompson would bring out every racist in the country to vote for Thompson.
I think we both accept that Hillary Clinton is toast in such a contest.

[TwilightGardener]

27. Latest polls show that all three beat him now, Obama and Edwards

by about 15 points each.

[Clark2008]

29. Wait until he actually enters the ring.

Just wait.

[TwilightGardener]

30. You're right ---GAME OVER, MAN! Smoke 'em if you got 'em!

:cry:

[Clark2008]

31. Well, he does happen to scare me that badly.

Chalk it up to where I live, the fact that I know the media will coronate him and the fact that this country recognizes actors much more quickly than politicians.

[TwilightGardener]

34. My take on him is that he'll either be bigger than Jesus for a while

and then ultimately weaken and lose to
Romney, or he'll run neck-and-neck with Romney and win in a squeaker. Romney is ruthless and has no principles or shame, and will do whatever it takes to win. In the general, I honestly can't see Fred beating Obama (but I can possibly see him beating Hillary or Edwards), especially side-by-side in a debate. They're both lawyers, so they should be pretty equal in skill, but Obama will have youth, energy, and fresh ideas going for him--Fred pretty much represents the last 8 corrupt and shitty years in all of his positions, only he's older-looking and has less vitality than GWB.

[AndyTiedye]

40. But Thompson Will Have All That Racism Working For Him

Thompson vs. Obama would probably be the ugliest race we have seen yet.
I wish I could be confident in the outcome of such a contest, but I cannot.

[vankuria]

17. What will the religious right think of his hot wife?

She looks very young and every photo I see she's showing lots of skin. I suppose they could dress her up as a sunday school teacher, but I have a feeling she's got some mileage on her.

[silverback]

19. Wife...

They'll be happy she's the one wearing the dress....

She's not just a pretty face, she's also a GOP strategist, which is why his message has been so carefully shaped and controlled over the last year.

He'll be the nominee, the only R candidate his entrance doesn't hurt is Ron Paul, and he's still a long shot with no corporate sponsorship.

[Awsi Dooger]

20. He has a big chance at the nomination

But the good news is he doesn't put any states into play, like Giuliani does. It would be a standard polarized campaign decided by a handful of swing states, not a race where we have to spend money in New York and elsewhere.

Here's something that is overlooked: if you don't want Hillary to be the nominee, then root for Thompson, or anyone else, to become the obvious frontrunner and lock up the GOP nomination early. Hillary benefits from a fuzzy GOP field since there is no direct comparison of her poll numbers, in reference to Obama's or Edwards', against a known Republican target. If Thompson were to run away with the nomination early, then all of a sudden you've got nothing but head-to-head polling that would demonstrate Hillary faring worse than Obama or Edwards against Thompson, and that potentially changes the voting priorities in Democratic primaries.

[KittyWampus]

22. very savvy observation re: Hillary

[illinoisprogressive]

23. agreed. Two of the top three are strong against the gop but, are not the frontrunner.

foot shooting time again!

[rufus dog]

32. make no mistake

No matter who the repubs run the will automatically have 1/3 to 2/5 of the population on his side. They are Repubs and will vote for whoever as long as it is a win. That is the part we all need to be aware of, Dems will vote on principle, Repubs will vote to win, Dems have a 10 to 20% base that will support whomever, R's have a 33 to 40% base. So the margin for error is much smaller. Think about it, GWB got 51% in 2004 in spite of being a demonstrable loser, that is because they only had to pick off 11%. So never underestimate a Repub, the party goal is to win first, core values second. Dems are the opposite.

[ncteechur]

33. You are EXACTLY correct!

[mitchum]

36. Some people say he's DYING of cancer...

according to some people

[snowbear]

38. I don't think he's dying.. his lymphoma is reportedly in remission right now.

Although, the dude just doesn't look overly healthy to me.

[mitchum]

39. But we know how repubs lie (n/t)

[caligirl]

43. Savings and Loan scandel lays at his feet, he lobbied for the

S&L deregulation act and it cost this country billions. (150 billion and huge deficits due to this in the 1990's.
You can help spread this at Bob Novak's oped on Fred today, comments at the bottom of the oped.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/05/30/AR2007053002022.html

[Major Hogwash]

44. The same Republicans that loved Bush in 2000 love Thompson now.

They love to hate McCain.

Giuliani will be bashed repeatedly for his position on abortion.
If he never changes his position, he will never win the support of the Republicans in the South.
The Bible belt believers are already ringing the bell about Giuliani.

So, Thompson is a threat.
He was in several movies and on a tv series.

He was a Senator that left the bickering in the Senate, for whatever reason, and will use that to his advantage.

Look at the polls - 60% of Republicans are not happy with the choices they have so far for President.

They're looking for someone else.

If Thompson gets in, he'll get the Republicans' pro-gun vote - both McCain and Giuilani are considered "gun grabbers" by Republican gun nuts.

And he'll get the Republican anti-abortion vote, then both McCain and Giuliani will wind up chasing him in the polls.

[krispos42]

45. I thought he left the Senate because it was too much work?

Remember, this was during the lazy pre-Democrat years, too. Start late on Tuesday, end early on Thursday...