POLL: Public Gives Clinton, Giuliani Best Odds of Winning Nominations

[jefferson_dem]

:scared:

Public Gives Clinton, Giuliani Best Odds of Winning Nominations
Only one in three thinks Gore would have a good chance of being the Democratic nominee
by Jeffrey M. Jones

PRINCETON, NJ -- A recent Gallup Panel survey asked a representative sample of Americans to assess how much of a chance each of the leading presidential candidates has of winning their party's 2008 presidential nomination. The vast majority of the public thinks Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have an excellent or good chance of being the Democrats' 2008 nominee, with Clinton given slightly better odds. Only about one in three Americans believes that reluctant candidate Al Gore would have a good chance should he enter the race. On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani is rated as having the best chance of winning that party's nomination, while a majority also says John McCain has a good chance.

Clinton and Giuliani have consistently led in party preference polls for the 2008 nominations, so the perceptions that they have the best chances of winning are in line with their current "front-runner" status.

Respondents to the May 21-24 survey were asked the following question -- separately for each party -- about the leading candidates' chances of winning that party's nomination:

Next, I'm going to read some names of people currently running or considering a run for the presidential nomination. Regardless of how you might feel about the person personally, please say whether, from what you have read and heard, you think each has an excellent chance, a good chance, only a slim chance, or no chance at all of winning the nomination for president in 2008. How about -- ?

Clinton is the Democratic candidate who is viewed as having the best shot of winning the party's 2008 nomination, with 83% of Americans saying she has an excellent (29%) or good (54%) chance. Slightly fewer Americans, 77%, say Obama has an excellent or good chance of winning the nomination. John Edwards is the only other candidate of the six Democrats tested that a majority of respondents rate as having a good chance.

Just 35% of Americans believe Gore would have a good chance of being the Democratic nominee should he enter the race, despite organized efforts underway to encourage him to run. The public views Bill Richardson and Joe Biden as long shots, though most give them at least a slim chance of winning rather than no chance at all. These latter two candidates are relatively unknown, so that may play into their lower scores in addition to their typically weak performances in preference polls.

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http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=27739

[BleedingHeartPatriot]

1. Next poll, gallup should just provide the brackets.

:eyes:

MKJ

[LoZoccolo]

2. It's Hillary's "unfavorable" numbers that scare me.

I wouldn't mind if she won and definitely would vote for her in the general, but it seems that everyone already has a strong opinion on her that won't budge much, and it's hard to tell if there would be enough support to put her over in the general. Having seen him in the Senate race here, I think Obama seems more like he's pulling the political game in a positive direction where people want it to go (he even refused to feed the Jack Ryan scandal, citing that people were more concerned with real issues), and seems to have more room to win people over.

[BleedingHeartPatriot]

3. In my day to day life, I don't see it. I know it's a minuscule fraction of the country, and

yet the RW folks I know would give Hillary a chance on health care alone.

And, they all think she's tough, in a positive way, like "Say what you will, she doesn't back down" kind of way.

MKJ

[ElizabethDC]

5. I was in an airport recently and overheard some Republicans talking about Hillary

first they were talking about how scary it is that Nancy Pelosi is Speaker and that she's second in line to the presidency and they were saying some not so favorable things about her - but then the conversation turned to Hillary.

I braced myself to hear some nasty things and I was shocked when they started talking about her with respect - one guy was describing how he had seen a clip of her giving a speech on TV and was saying how perfectly honed the speech was. He said that she definitely knew what she was doing as a candidate and that she was "formidable."

I was very surprised to hear such kind words from them about Hillary - with most Republicans I know, all they ever say about her is that she's a lesbian.

[Acadia Blue]

7. That is very suprising! If more of those with IQs just listened to her.

I unfortunately do not think she can win nationally because of the South and the Midwest. I wish Gore would enter. I see Gore and Obama or Edwards winning really well. And Gore knows whats up this time. Corporatism is destroying America.

[OHdem10]

4. Did anyone happen to see the "Focus Group Session"

conducted by Peter Hart last evening on C_Span?

From that "Focus Group", 12 ordinary citizens(4 Dems, 4 Repubs
and 4Independents) one would really see Hilary's unfavorables.
The Dems chose Hilary because they had 3 choices, Hilary Obama
Edwards.

Further distressing Obama was likeable but not seen as strong
leader, likewise Edwards. This group of people leaned more
Guilliani even after Hart explained Rudy's position on God
Guns Gays and ABortion.

MCCain was seen as a safe choice.

This is early, I know.

[Awsi Dooger]

9. I saw it, incredibly shallow

Two of the women reminded me of the right wingers at work, pure simpletons who like Bush because he doesn't change his mind, and still obsess over Bill Clinton's zipper.

Obama was described positively, that's what I took from it. Words like charismatic were all over the place when he was discussed. I never worry about experience or so-called leadership when identifying a nominee. That nominee will have survived a heated primary battle and then many months of general election scrutiny. At that point the public will accept him/her as tested. It's just a matter of likability and perceived competence on election day.

Eight of the 12 named Hillary, when asked to identify someone they would never vote for.

[Rydz777]

6. In the end it will be Gore vs. Thompson and Gore will win. n/t

[Acadia Blue]

8. I think Gore could beat any of those inflated pigs.

[luckyleftyme2]

10. not just gore

Ithink edwards,mrs clinton,obama or gore will beat all comers! esp what the republicans have fielded so far!