First four 2008 primary/caucus dates will decide the Super Tuesday winner

[zulchzulu]

Some think that Iowa and New Hampshire are irrelevant now that February 5, 2008 has 20 states voting, comprising about 50% of the American voters during the primary season.

I couldn't disagree more. I think Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina will be even more important for deciding the momentum leading into what some called Super Tuesday, the National Primary or Giga-Tuesday on February 5th.

Whoever has the best on the ground team (with some Facebook and other web tools to get the high school seniors to the caucus) in Iowa will then be able to mobilize into New Hamphire and then southward. Iowa's Facebook crowd will include many seniors, who can vote in the caucus since they will be elegible to vote by Election Day. If they mobilize and actually show up, candidates with more youth appeal will do very well.

Either way, it's all going to come down to the media watching the view and then making lots of claims about who is viable. Here's the schedule so far:

Primary/Caucus states (delegates)

January 14
Iowa Caucus (45)

January 19
Nevada Caucus (25)

January 22
New Hampshire (22) (may move to January 8)

January 29
Florida (185)
South Carolina (45)

February 5
Alabama (60)
Alaska (18)
Arizona (67)
Arkansas (47)
California (441)
Colorado (71)
Delaware (23)
Georgia (104)
Idaho <11>
Illinois (185)
Missouri (88)
New Jersey (127)
New Mexico (38)
New York (280)
(North Carolina) (110)
North Dakota (21)
Oklahoma (47)
Tennessee (85)
Utah (29)

February 9
Nebraska (caucus) (31)
Louisiana (68)
Michigan (157)

February 10
Maine (caucus) (34)

February 12
District of Columbia (37)
Maryland (99)
Virginia (103)

February 19
Wisconsin (92)

February 26
Hawaii (29)

March 2008 (date to be determined)
American Samoa (9)
Democrats Abroad (11)
Guam (8)
U.S. Virgin Islands (9)
Wyoming (18)

March 4
Connecticut (61)
Massachusetts (121)
Minnesota (88)
Ohio (161)
Rhode Island (32)
Texas (228)
Vermont (23)

March 8
Kansas (40)

March 11
Mississippi (40)

April 1
Pennsylvania (181)

May 6
Indiana (79)
North Carolina - may move to 02/05/08 (110)

May 13
West Virginia (37)

May 20
Kentucky (55)
Oregon (62)

May 27
Washington (97)

June 3
Montana (23)
South Dakota (22)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

1. With so short a time line, it is likely that all candidates will remain on the ballots

through Super Tuesday at least. I'm glad for that, because that means that there is still a chance for them, despite what the media says. Last time, when our primary was in May, everyone was gone from the ballot except Kerry and Kucinich. Those who wished to vote for others were out of luck. I hope those in the "also ran" group named by the MSM simply kick up their workers in the Super Tuesday states and see what happens. Could be the front runner in Iowa or NV or NH actually spurs on workers for other candidates.

[zulchzulu]

3. The momentum of the first four days can make or break the primaries

For instance, if Obama wins Iowa and New Hampshire (or any candidate), the massive amount of delegates on February 5th will probably pour into that candidate's delegate coffers.

I don't like the front-loaded schedule at all, but my point is that the story will unfold heavily that whoever wins the first four states or makes strong showings there will be getting a massive amount of delegates on February 5th.

Iowa will be a lot more important than some people believe.

[bigwillq]

2. Wow, CT's primary is later this time.

I remember back in 2004, CT was on Super Tuesday. :(