Obama Leads in SC polling

[illinoisprogressive]

According to the latest Public Policy Polling survey of likely South Carolina primary voters, Sen. Barack Obama leads the Democratic presidential race with the support of 34%, trailed by Sen. Hillary Clinton with 31% and John Edwards with 15%.

On the GOP side, Fred Thompson leads his rivals with 27%, followed by Mitt Romney at 16%, Sen. John McCain at 15%, Rudy Giuliani at 14% and Newt Gingrich at 11%.
http://politicalwire.com/

[tritsofme]

1. Being that SC is 30% black

They must make up a majority of Democratic primary voters and would tend to fall behind Obama, so this is not that surprising.

Undeclared Thompson leading the pack for the GOP makes one wince a bit. SC is a pivotal state in the GOP primaries.

[Kingstree]

5. Do I smell a little racism

Please explain yourself. Show me that stats of the polls in reference to nationality. I'm waiting.

[ElizabethDC]

7. I believe that about half the voters in the SC democratic primary are African American. n/t

[BeyondGeography]

13. That's correct; blacks represented 49% of the SC vote in the 2004 primary

[draft_mario_cuomo]

12. HRC leads among African-Americans, not Obama nt

[MethuenProgressive]

2. Edwards at 15? In his neighboring state??

But then that's not really surprising since Kerry/Edwards didn't win his home state either.

[Benhurst]

3. And neither will our 2008 ticket.

But we might be able to pick up North Carolina with a bit of luck and the right candidates.

[MethuenProgressive]

4. Unless we run Larry the Cable guy and Dale Earnhardt Jr., there's no hope?

I'm not sure about that.

[Kingstree]

6. What do you mean by "we"

Please explain.

[ElizabethDC]

9. I think he meant the Democrats. n/t

[MethuenProgressive]

10. I have a mouse in my pocket.

And yes, I was responding to the notion that we (us Democrats) couldn't win the Carolinas.

[ElizabethDC]

11. Frankly, you've now got me fascinated with a potential candidacy of Larry the Cable Guy.

Slogan: "Git R Done," obviously. Hmm, I might start a Draft Larry the Cable Guy movement.

[Benhurst]

18. Not "the Carolinas" -- SOUTH Carolina. And it will go Republican

even with Larry the Cable Guy on the ticket, although he might help us up here in NORTH Carolina.

[jcrew2001]

8. If Obama wins NH - he knocks Hillary out of the race for good

I think hillary is our weakest candidate in the general, so hopefully she can quit Iowa and spend her 15 million in NH - hahaha

[William769]

15. I hope your stocking up on cheese.

[Colobo]

14. Good news!

[William769]

16. For the African American population in S.C.

Thats a very short trail.

[Colobo]

17. All blacks should be supporting Obama?

[draft_mario_cuomo]

21. HRC leads among African-Americans. Could it be that Obama is simply resonating more in SC?

You know, just as Edwards is in Iowa and how we have a close race in NH. It is funny how HRC is much weaker in states in which the candidates are actually campaigning right now...

Obama's lead is likely a product of him thrashing HRC among white voters.

[William769]

24. Much weaker?

It's within the margin of error. :rofl:

[rinsd]

27. How do you have the breakdown from a non-public poll?

[Ethelk2044]

28. I am African American

I do not know one African American not planning on voting for him. I have called several of my college friends and they all say the same thing. I do not know where people are planning on voting for Clinton. I know the media has tried to build that up, but we are not buying.

[Czolgosz]

19. American Research Group has Obama a distant 3rd (Hillary 34%, Edwards 30%, Obama 18%)

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

[Colobo]

20. Those guys always have Hillary winning in every poll, by large margins usually

[Czolgosz]

22. But doesn't the Winthrop University poll also have Hillary leading Obama in South Carolina?

[Colobo]

23. Haven't heard about that one

[rinsd]

25. SC & IA have multiple polls out with conflicting results.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/6/4/113019/4571

Iowa and South Carolina are two of the only states showing conflicting poll leads. In the ten South Carolina polls over the last two months, seven have now shown Clinton ahead, and three have now shown Obama ahead. In the seven Iowa polls in the last two months, five have shown Edwards ahead, and two have shown Clinton ahead. The polls further conflict on the size of the leads they show, and on who is in third place. One South Carolina poll shows Obama in third, and two Iowa polls show Clinton in third.<Br.<Br> In this case, my first reaction is to guess that Obama leads in South Carolina due to the IVR polling style, as IVR polls tend to include a higher percentage of young voters in their sample. Then again, this IVR poll also shows Edwards way ahead in Iowa, and he hasn't been known to sue particularly well among young voters, at least so far and at least nationally. Overall, the fluctuation we see between many early state polls is probably just as connected to a highly volatile early state electorate as it is to different methodologies. As such, I must continue to emphasize the importance of poll averaging as the best current means of gauging the state of the campaign.

[Ethelk2044]

26. This is Great News!