HRC shakes up Iowa campaign; Giuliani to skip Ames straw poll

[draft_mario_cuomo]

==une 06, 2007
Clinton Shakes Up Iowa Campaign
Sen. Hillary Clinton's "shake-up of her Iowa campaign reflects an acknowledgement that she needs to make a serious effort in the leadoff caucuses," the Des Moines Register reports.

"Clinton named longtime Iowa campaign operative and national party organizer Teresa Vilmain as the campaign's Iowa director, replacing JoDee Winterhof. The move comes as the U.S. senator from New York leads the Democratic presidential field in most national polls but has consistently come in second or third in polls of Iowa caucusgoers."==

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/06/06/clinton_shakes_up_iowa_campaign.html

==June 06, 2007
Giuliani Plans to Skip Ames Straw Poll

Rudy Giuliani "plans to skip the Ames straw poll in August, but compete to win the leadoff Iowa caucuses," reports the Des Moines Register.

"Although most national polls show Giuliani ahead of his GOP rivals, recent Iowa surveys of likely GOP caucusgoers show he has slipped from the top spot in Iowa."

"The straw poll is expected to draw tens of thousands of Iowa GOP activists to Hilton Coliseum at Iowa State University on Aug. 11, and serve as an organizational dry run for candidates competing in the January caucuses."==

http://politicalinsider.com/2007/06/giuliani_plans_to_skip_ames_st.html

[jcrew2001]

1. I doubt Hillary will spend 15 mil in Iowa

If she loses Iowa and Obama wins NH - she's done.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

2. Agreed. Let's hope

Don't forget, though, that Edwards is generally on par with Obama in NH (Obama is ahead 20-17 on the RCP average of the five most recent polls). A lot of Obama supporters seem to be forgetting this and view NH as a two-way battle. If Edwards wins Iowa his momentum would surge him past Obama in NH. ;)

Having Edwards win Iowa and Obama win NH would be great. That would eliminate HRC and hopefully lead to the dream team: Edwards/Obama. :bounce:

[mckeown1128]

3. I really think in order to stop her majesty from

grabbing the thrown the results should be...

Iowa = Edwards
New Hampshire = Obama
South Carolina = Obama

and I think Florida (if the delegates count) will be vital in hurting Hillary's momentum for Super Mega clusterf@#k tuesday

I don't know who could beat her in florida but Edwards so far is the only one to poll better than her on a poll.


Edwards/Obama would be a great ticket but Obama/Edwards is slightly better :7 either way it would give us the White House for 16 years I believe.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

5. Either ticket is a winner imo! nt

[rinsd]

7. If Edwards does not win IA, his campaign is over.

As long as Hillary finishes in the top 3 in IA, top 2 in NV, NH & SC and she is fine going into Giga-Tuesday.

Obama has the rosiest of scenarios because he does not have the expectation of a win yet. However wins in both NH and SC could set up a showdown on Giga Tuesday with possibly CA hanging in the balance.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

14. I agree with you on everything except Obama

If Obama goes 0-for-5 in the early states it is hard to see him suddenly gaining momentum in the couple days between Florida/SC and Judgment Day. He needs to win somewhere, although, as you noted, he has the lowest expectations and I think he can afford to lose Iowa and NH and still remain viable so long as he wins either SC or Florida.

If Edwards loses Iowa, Obama goes 0-5 for in the early states it will be for all intents and purposes over. HRC will be the nominee after basically sweeping Super Tuesday.

It is odd that there has been no real pressure on Obama to win in Iowa. He is from neighboring Illinois and benefits from the Iowa/Illinois media market overlap in part of Iowa.

Obama's vulnerability to an Edwards win in Iowa is also overlooked. Edwards and Obama are pretty much on par in NH (it is funny how close they are where they receive more or less equal media coverage). If Edwards wins Iowa, he will almost certainly vault past Obama in NH to either 1st or at least 2nd. Third in NH will not be a good launching pad going into Florida and SC.

[rinsd]

17. 0-5 would be extremely difficult for Obama if not fatal.

"Obama's vulnerability to an Edwards win in Iowa is also overlooked. Edwards and Obama are pretty much on par in NH (it is funny how close they are where they receive more or less equal media coverage). If Edwards wins Iowa, he will almost certainly vault past Obama in NH to either 1st or at least 2nd. Third in NH will not be a good launching pad going into Florida and SC."

If Edwards is able to take 2nd or win NH, he has the reins probably until Giga Tuesday.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

19. I agree nt

[jcrew2001]

23. Is Nevada before NH?

I think Edwards can win Nevada also, but it might not help win NH.

[MGKrebs]

24. Clinton is crushing everybody in the Nev. polls.

37-13-12 or 35-21-15.

Even if it tightens up, if Richardson bails and throws his support to HC it might add 5%, and that is not an unlikely scenario.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

25. Yes. Whoever wins Iowa will likely win Nevada.

It is only 4-5 days after Iowa and whoever has the momentum from Iowa will likely ride it to victory in Nevada. Besides, the campaigns will largely neglect NV in favor of NH, which has its primary 2-3 days after Nevada, making momentum from Iowa even more vital.

[Czolgosz]

10. I don't think Hillary has to win Iowa or New Hampshire, but she cannot come in third in both states,

and if she comes in third in Iowa and Edwards wins Iowa, then Edwards will be headed into New Hampshire with momentum and Hillary will be headed into NH with JoeMentum (aka "loseritis") which could sink her to third in NH. If she starts with two third place finishes, she's toast. Look for someone to pull out the daggers on Obama in New Hampshire if this looks likely.

BUT THE MORE INTERESTING NEWS IS GIULIANI DROPPING OUT OF THE AMES STRAW POLL.

Watch for a huge upset by one of the fundamentalist theocrats in the famous straw poll

Will it be Mike "I don't know if the world is over 6000 years old" Huckabee, Tom "Won't let Bush darken his doorstep" Tancredo, or Sam "Evolution? Smevolution!" Brownback?

[rinsd]

12. I would agree with that.

She cannot finish out of the top 2 for NH.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

15. I agree with Rinsd again

Is hell freezing over? ;)

HRC finishing 3rd in Iowa is likely and her finishing 3rd in NH is more of a possibility than it appears to be right now. She has never had a huge lead there. She may be overtaken by Edwards, Obama, or both in NH next year. This seems unlikely, though. What is possible is her falling to 3rd after a weak showing in Iowa, since Edwards and Obama would not need much momentum to overtake her in NH.

What if HRC finishes 4th in Iowa? Would that doom her? She led a surging Richardson by only 7% in the last Iowa poll.

[rinsd]

18. I don't know about you but I've already donned my apocalypse cloak

;-)

"What if HRC finishes 4th in Iowa? Would that doom her? She led a surging Richardson by only 7% in the last Iowa poll."

4th would hurt but I think it will be NH that is the bigger factor in both Clinton and Obama's campaigns.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

20. Lol

If anyone can overcome a 4th place finish in Iowa it is HRC, with her name ID, warchest, and most importantly, support of the party establishment.

[OHdem10]

4. Do not forget there are a lot of large states

like California where Hilary can make up.

Sure it would not be a good thing for HRC to lose
the first 2 primary votes but there are ways
for anyone to make up losses and move on.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

6. Has anyone who contested both Iowa and NH and lost in both won the nomination?

It seems to be nearly impossible, given the consequences it has for a campaign's momentum, media coverage, and fundraising.

[rinsd]

8. Bill Clinton for one.

While nobody contested IA in 1992, Clinton didn't get his 1st win until GA with IA, NH, SD, CO & MD going to other candidates. Though that was a more fractured Dem run.

Clinton or Obama could take just 2nd in either IA and NH and survive to Giga Tuesday.

Edwards campaign is dead if he loses IA.

On eidt: The irony being that Edwards could be on this list had he done better in Michigan.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

16. Wow, I didn't know he won so late nt

[jcrew2001]

21. I recommend Hillary taking 2nd place in IA and NH just like Bill

it will be a masterful gameplan.

[CRH]

9. Yes, Harkin won Iowa and Tsongas N.H. in 1992,

while a Arkansas governor was recovering from public revelations of a open zipper with Jennifer Flowers. That Arkansas governor went on to become our confessional corporate president of the nineties while preserving his lavish libido and ubiquitous foundering fly.

This year the dynamics are much different, with California and other large states immune to the momentum of two rather insignificant electoral states.

Historic trends in Iowa and/or New Hampshire have been neutralized, as maybe the heart medications have done to Bubba's libido and liable zipper.

[Czolgosz]

11. Giuliani tacitly giving his supporters permission to vote for someone else in the Ames straw poll is

like giving his wife tacit permission to go on a date.

It is a sign that the relationship is over and he's not even trying to win them back.

I'm wondering if Giuliani is headed for a 4th (or 5th?) place finish in Iowa.

[jcrew2001]

22. I think Rudy and McCain will both lose to Mitt in Iowa (January)

If they bail on the straw poll, they realize Iowa's gone. Funny how both GOP and Dem races are similar. Mitt and Edwards are both in the same situation - polling 3rd nationally but 1st in Iowa. I think however, Mitt will be able to win both Iowa and NH, but Rudy will put up a fight in NH. Ultimately I think Rudy's name recognition (if he doesn't blow it) will help him win SC and Florida and Super Tuesday.

Edwards needs to finish strong in SC after winning Iowa and Nevada. He'll need to fight for Florida as well. Hillary can win Super Tuesday, but it will be very interesting if she loses NH - will Dems switch to Edwards or Obama afterwards?

[Eugene]

13. AP: Giuliani, McCain say no to straw poll

Source: Associated Press

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070606/ap_on_el_pr/republicans_iowa_12">Giuliani, McCain say no to straw poll

By LIZ SIDOTI, Associated Press Writer
23 minutes ago

WASHINGTON - Republican presidential front-runner Rudy Giuliani said
Wednesday he won't compete in a high-profile Iowa straw poll, and rival
John McCain quickly followed suit in bypassing the early test of
strength.

"We are 100 percent committed to winning the Iowa caucuses in January,"
said Mike DuHaime, the former New York City mayor's campaign manager,
even as he announced the decision to skip the Aug. 11 straw poll in Ames,
Iowa.

Hours later, Terry Nelson, McCain's campaign manager, told The Associated
Press that in light of Giuliani's announcement "it's clear that the Ames straw
poll will not be a meaningful test of the leading candidates' organizational
abilities." Thus, he said: "We have decided to forgo our participation in the
event."

Nelson said McCain, like Giuliani, would still compete in the state's lead-off
caucuses.

Among the top-tier candidates only Mitt Romney said he would participate
in the nonbinding August straw poll. It's a decades-old dress rehearsal
that allows GOP candidates to measure their organizational strength
months before the caucuses, a one-day presidential contest that requires
a strong get-out-the-vote operation to ensure backers participate.


Link: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070606/ap_on_el_pr/republicans_iowa_12