CNN NH Post-Debate Poll - Hillary gains, Obama Holds Steady

[ElizabethDC]

Poll: Clinton stronger leader, Obama more likeable


WASHINGTON (CNN) — Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton appears to have lengthened her lead among likely New Hampshire primary voters after last week’s debate among Democratic presidential candidates, winning points for being strong, even if she’s not necessarily the most likeable, a poll said Monday.

The CNN/WMUR presidential primary poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire, placed the senator from New York at the front of the pack, supported by 36 percent of likely voters versus 22 percent for Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, her closest rival. (Read full poll results )

Since April, Clinton’s support has grown by 9 points — from 27 percent, the poll said. Obama’s position has grown by just 2 points — from 20 percent — in April.

Most of those increases appear to have come at the expense of Sen. John Edwards of South Carolina, whose support tumbled from 21 percent in April to his current 12 percent.

More: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/06/11/poll-clinton-stronger-leader-obama-more-likeable/

(The poll also finds that most NH voters think Clinton is the strongest leader, and that she has the best chance of beating the Republican nominee in the general election, but that Obama is the most likable candidate.)

[SaveElmer]

1. Edwards is in danger of tumbling into 5th in NH...

He ties Gore (who is not running) at 12, and is now only two points ahead of Richardson...

[ElizabethDC]

4. Yeah, I was kind of surprised by that

is he maybe falling out of the top tier? If Gore enters, I think Edwards is definitely out of the top tier, but even without Gore, I wonder if Richardson can overtake him? People I've been talking to have been expressing more interest in Richardson lately.

[Adelante]

2. Strongest leader figure is huge

But the former first lady fared considerably better when likely voters were asked which candidate is the strongest leader. She led the pack, with 48 percent, followed distantly by Gore and Obama — each with 12 percent — and then Edwards, with 6 percent.

Asked which candidate has the best chance of beating the Republican nominee in November’s general election, Clinton again came out on top, with 37 percent, more than double the 15 percent garnered by Obama and more than triple the 12 percent who cited Gore or the 10 percent who cited Edwards.

[wyldwolf]

3. so Obama is the candidate NH voters would most like to have a beer with.

[mckeown1128]

5. well this would be impressive........but

1. The poll has margin of error of 6 points.

2. According to this poll only 8% of those polled have definitely made up their mind.

3. The New Hampshire primary is a long time away.

4. Hillary has much more name recognition than everyone.

5. None besides Richardson have started buying large amounts of advertising time.

[ElizabethDC]

6. Yep. Unfortunately, most (if not all) NH polls I've seen have a large MoE

so, you've kinda got to take what you've got.

As for the primary being a long time a way . . . yep, nothing new there, so this is really just a snapshot in time, as are all the polls.

[SaveElmer]

7. Hard to argue it is name recognition though...

Candidates are up there weekly...

Looking at poll trends Hillary has been in the lead consistently, with a strong base of support...

This number is impressive!

[mckeown1128]

8. She has been in the lead consistently but..

it is usually much closer than this poll has it. So I am skeptical.

[SaveElmer]

9. Not really...check MyDD poll averages...

Hillary is averaging a 12 point lead...

http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/6/11/93342/0037#commenttop

[mckeown1128]

10. It is hard to check you since I do not know which polls you used

If you look here you can see that it several polls he is within the margin of error. In others he is double digits away. This continues my point that these polls are not accurate and are too early.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#New_Hampshire

[SaveElmer]

11. That is why you average poll results...

The trend of those averages show a steady and convincing lead for Hillary...

[Divine Discontent]

12. sadly, that is true.

I keep hoping since we're so long off from the primaries still, that Gore or Clark will enter because a lot of Hillary's support will go to them, especially if both enter. I don't think Gore will, but Clark might. I don't feel Hillary can convince anyone in my family other than my Mom and I to vote for her, and they all but one (out of 10 votes) voted for Gore and Kerry. That's not good, but it's an honest reflection of the dozens of votes my family effects (I changed several votes for Kerry in 04 that would've went for Bush).

I will vote for Hillary, but if it comes to her I hope she blows me away in authenticity like Kerry did in the 4 in person speeches I watched.
www.cafepress.com/warisprofitable <<-- top '08 stuff!

[Ethelk2044]

14. I said name recognition the other

day and someone said know. This just made my case.

[Nimrod2005]

13. Edwards is fading...not gonna make not gonna make it...Obama

is going to win, this will trun out like 2004: during the last few days, people will break ot the most electable candidate, and it is not Hillary.

[mckeown1128]

15. I suspect that Edwards and Obama will get much traction

after Edwards wins Iowa and Obama wins New Hampshire and SC.

[ElizabethDC]

16. Obama's gonna win NH and SC?

Where did you come up with that idea? Granted, Obama has been shown in the lead in a few SC polls, but it hasn't been consistent.

[mckeown1128]

17. Honestly it is my guess...

He polls strong among the african american population in SC and he polls strong among the independent population in NH I speculate that with a little shift towards him.. he will solidly over take hillary in both states....but it is only my opinion :7