Poll: Clinton with commanding lead in Texas, Richardson making a move...

[SaveElmer]

Looks like another state where Edwards is in danger of being overtaken by Richardson.

Edwards only 4 in front of Richardson here, and only 2 ahead in the New Hampshire poll that came out today

Hillary 40
Obama 15
Edwards 13
Richardson 9

http://ivrpolls.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=19&Itemid=1

[rinsd]

1. I am really interested in what Richardson's 2nd Q fundraising #'s will be (nt)

[SaveElmer]

2. He must be doing something right...his debate performances have sucked...

IMO, but he appears to be gaining...

He is my second choice, but wish he would tighten up his debate performances.

[rinsd]

3. His debate performances have been bad.

I couldn't believe it because I always thought he was a decent speaker.

Apparently his interview ads have created quite a buzz and he's been doing ads up in NH.

He did have $5M on hand as of March 31st.

[BlueStater]

4. If Edwards is in danger of being overtaken by Richardson then so is Obama

He is, after all, only two points ahead of Edwards.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

18. Exactly but DLC'ers reserve special disdain of Edwards

They seem to be comfortable with Obama, though...

[polichick]

5. My guess is he'll be Hillary's running mate...

Hill and Bill ~ corny as that is!

[MannyGoldstein]

6. OK, I'm Convinced I Should Vote For Mrs. Clinton

She's the top choice in the "execute 'em" state.

[polichick]

7. I'm amazed she's doing so well there!

Who knew??

[MannyGoldstein]

9. It Makes Sense - SHe's Pretty Far Right

Voted for IWR, both 'Patriot' acts, the first awful bankruptcy bill, and was a big cheerleader of her husband's successful efforts to make 'free' trade with China permanent.

[polichick]

10. Yeah, but...

Her hair's not big enough!

[zulchzulu]

8. "513 past Texas Democratic primary voters polled 6/4. Margin of Error 4.3%"

Otherwise known as a crap poll... small sample, large MoE...

Hey, if you think Senator Clinton will take Texas, go for it...

[SaveElmer]

11. And exactly what is your expertise in polling...?

Hillary is ahead by 25 in the poll...well outside the MoE...

You make this same criticism of every poll that comes out showing Hillary in the lead..so care to post your credentials...show us how you know more about the science of polling than those actually doing it!

[zulchzulu]

16. I work for a media relations company that does political polls occasionally

If you know about polls and how sampling, margins of error and time when the poll was conducted, you know that a small sample with a MoE larger than 3% is not usable by political professionals... I've made the point to Obama supporters who post polls with the same polling data characteristics that the poll is not legit.

If you want to believe in polls with questionable data characteristics, be my guest.

:argh:

[SaveElmer]

17. Not useable how?...

Why in God's name would news organization and candidates commission polls that were useless...?

[zulchzulu]

19. It's people who don't know jackshit about a good poll that don't know the difference

Why do you think that a mainstream media news outlet has an online poll, which is one of the most inaccurate forms of polling there is? Because it's called "eyeballs" to the site.

Candidates certainly have polls taken (they hire companies like the one I work for) knowing that the margin of error will be below 3% in certainty, know that the sampling size and characteristics are the best target and that the poll was taken at a time where a wide demographic sample is possible.

If a poll samples just 500 people and has a margin of error of 4+% or higher, companies like the one I work for would not get paid by serious political interests. It's what you'd call a D- on a college paper or a cold steak on a plate at a restaurant...

[SaveElmer]

20. You still have not explained...

Why they are not useable...are you saying an MoE of 4 is not really that...?

For example the latest Rasmussen is not an online poll, yet has an MoE of +/- 4...

It has Hillary ahead 36 - 24

An MoE of 4 means it could be anywhere from 40 - 20 to 32 - 28...correct? Are you saying that even that is not accurate?

[bigdarryl]

12. Theres no fucking way Hillary or anyother democrat is going to beat Richardson in his own state the.

last time i checked he had an approval rating of 64% so these polls at this time are mean less.

[wyldwolf]

13. umm...

[SaveElmer]

14. Jeez...RIchardson is from NEW MEXICO..not TEXAS...

:eyes:

[ElizabethDC]

15. Um, Richardson is from New Mexico. This poll is from Texas. n/t

[Clark2008]

21. Well, I have to say I'm a bit relieved by this development.