Candidates get unexpected support from some voters

[Adelante]

USA Today has short wind-ups of the top four candidates on where their support is coming from. Kind of interesting.

Clinton, in contrast, is a classic Democrat. She does best among women, Democratic partisans, older voters, and less-educated and lower-income workers. She trumps Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, her top rival and an African-American, among blacks.

That mix of support could help her win Democratic primaries, but she faces hurdles in the general election. She draws only 1 in 4 independents who "lean" Democratic, for example, and 1 in 4 white men in the Democratic sample.

•Obama gets one-fourth of his support from African-Americans, who provide Clinton one-fifth of her support. However, looking at black voters as a group, Clinton leads: 35% of blacks support Obama, while 41% support Clinton — one of her strongest showings among any demographic group.

The Illinois senator has strong appeal to independents and higher-income voters. He ties Clinton among those who have a college degree or more. But he trails her by a yawning 21 percentage points among those with a high school education or less. Ed Sarpolus, an independent pollster based in Michigan, says Obama will have to do better among blue-collar workers, black and white, to prevail in Democratic primaries.

•Edwards draws support from groups that Democrats often struggle to reach: men, whites, moderates and the well-to-do. One-third of his supporters make more than $75,000 a year, the highest percentage of any Democrat. Despite efforts to cultivate labor-union members and increasingly pointed opposition to the Iraq war, Edwards shows limited appeal to lower-income workers and liberals. He does no better among anti-war voters than the other Democrats.

•Former vice president Al Gore — who continues to score in surveys even though he hasn't entered the race (or ruled out running) — gets one-quarter of his support from those under 30, the highest of any candidate in either field. Gore, 59 and a former Tennessee senator, draws disproportionately strong support from Pacific Coast states.

Republicans also

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2007-06-10-voters_N.htm

[thethinker]

1. Very interesting

I am surprised with where Edwards support is coming from. One third of his supporters make over 75,000 per year. Isn't that interesting since his message is poverty and helping the poor. Also he is doing the best with white males and moderates. Also, he isn't drawing liberals. Surprised at that also because of his message.

Clinton draws only 1 in 4 men that are independent and lean toward the Democrats. That does not surprise me.

So where is the liberal anti-war vote going? It doesn't seem to be to any of them. It has to be going somewhere.

Very interesting.

[Adelante]

2. It seems to be spread among them all

The anti-war vote.

[Adelante]

3. Methodology

A USA TODAY analysis of Americans' preferences in the 2008 presidential race — based on more than 7,000 interviews in USA TODAY/Gallup Polls taken this year — finds some surprising sides to the appeal of the four contenders in each party who top the polls. The study provides intriguing clues about whose messages are breaking through and what issues matter most.

-snip

USA TODAY combined surveys to create a sample large enough to analyze the common demographic characteristics and political views of each candidate's support. Included were Democratic polls taken since January and Republican polls taken since March, when Thompson was added the list of potential GOP contenders.

[thethinker]

4. A couple of surprises on the repub side also

I found this interesting:

"Giuliani's support is unlike that of any Republican nominee in at least a generation. He fares better with moderates than conservatives, with more secular voters than more religious ones, and with younger people than older ones. He draws slightly more support from women than men.

One-third of McCain's supporters say the Iraq invasion was a mistake, the most of any Republican candidate, even though McCain has taken the lead in defending the war and supporting the rise in U.S. troop levels this year. On the GOP side, McCain also gets the most support from those who disapprove of President Bush."

Isn't it surprising that McCain is pulling the republicans that think the war was a mistake and disapprove of Bush. He seems to be the biggest war-monger running. I would think he would be the last one they would support.

[jmp]

13. Those are ...

Leftover moderates from his last campaign. But it doesn't matter as Fred Thompson is ready to shove McCain right out of the race.

[polichick]

5. That really is interesting stuff!

Edwards, who fights for the poor, does best with the well-to-do? Definitely surprising ~ are they looking at voting record?

[On the Road]

9. Strangely Enough,

Edwards is Camille Paglia's favorite candidate.

[polichick]

10. Hmmm

Wonder how Edwards feels about that!

[Cameron27]

6. Surprising stats.

I thought Edwards was picking up a middle-class, pro-labor, anti-war vote. Clinton and Obama are about where I thought, except that I assumed Obama had more blue-collar support.

Very interesting.

/spelling

[Adelante]

8. And the youth vote goes to Gore

when it seemed it would be Obama's.

[polichick]

11. Guess Gore is a hero to both boomers and their kids...

Internet, environment, legitimate president robbed of victory, Oscar winner, Nobel nominee ~ it's a film for which the final scene is already written in our minds!

[papau]

7. interesting - but I wish they would analyze registered voters rather than "adults" n/t

n/t

[Totally Committed]

12. I take issue with this statement:

"Clinton, in contrast, is a classic Democrat."

A classic Democrat is, say, Mario Cuomo. Mrs. Clinton is no Mario Cuomo... not even by a long-shot. That she does best among "less educated" voters, however, does not surprise me. These voters are most likely to be influenced by name recognition. "Lower-income" voters have also been shown to be willing to vote against their own best interests for a name they recognize. "Democratic Partisans" will vote for any nominee who has a (D) after their name, regardless of DINO stances on the issues. Since I am an "older voter" (a "Boomer") who knows many other "older voters"(also Boomers), I totally disagree about her cornering our market. I don't know one Democrat or left-leaning Independent "older voter" who will vote for Hillary... not one. The African-American vote may still go to her, but for reasons I can't fathom.

Voters need to be educated in the ways and wishes of the DLC and the candidates who belong to the DLC. Women voters, especially the more Feminist ones, need to re-examine what electing a DLC-er to the presidency just because she's a female will do to our credibility further on down the line. (Think of Margeret Thatcher)

If ever the country needed a "classic" Democrat for POTUS, it is now. And, Mrs. Clinton is not one of those.

TC