WSJ: Front-loaded election calendar makes Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina even more important

[jefferson_dem]

Here's an interesting analysis of the front-loaded 2008 election calendar from the WSJ...

'Super-Duper Tuesday' May Be Too Big to Matter
Sheer Number of States,
Timing Will Reinforce
Impact of Opening Trio
By JACKIE CALMES
June 15, 2007; Page A6

An unprecedented number of states have scheduled early presidential primaries to grab some influence from the traditional first kingmakers, Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. But as the law of unintended consequences would have it, the front-loaded calendar could instead make that opening trio of states -- and roughly a half-million voters in each party -- more decisive than ever.





On Feb. 5 -- widely called "Super-Duper Tuesday" -- nearly two dozen states, from New York to California, may hold what approaches a national primary. In 2004, just nine states had voted by then. The crush in 2008 will mean that no contender has the time and money to stump in all the Feb. 5 states with anything near the intensity candidates do in states with January contests. That is why Florida has defied both parties' rules aimed at minimizing front-loading, and moved up its primaries to Jan. 29 from March; Michigan's Democrats might follow.

So January's top finishers will have the momentum to carry them into February, and also-rans will likely have too little time to catch up, strategists say. Wonder what keeps the dark horses running? It is the potential for upsets in the early states, where meeting voters is relatively easy and TV ads less expensive.

One caveat about momentum: Because many states, notably California, allow voting for weeks before their primary day, some ballots could be cast before the results from Iowa or New Hampshire are known.

Even so, says David Plouffe, campaign manager for Democrat Barack Obama, "You can't expect to finish poorly in January and resuscitate in February."

<SNIP>

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118186324620336039.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

[madrchsod]

1. this is a joke right?

to bad the democrats hold their primary on the same day.

[jefferson_dem]

2. Well, we won't all vote on the same day but it'll be all but over by Feb. 5.

After NH on Jan. 22, i suspect we'll be left with two or maybe three who are still claiming to be "contenders." On Jan. 29, SC will just about cement things for one of them, with another or two limping along to the super-duper day of Feb. 5.

[ieoeja]

3. It may cause a return to regional candidacies and open conventions.

Unable to compete everywhere the candidates may target a specific region. Maybe Edwards ends up winning North Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Missouri with Obama picking up California, Oregon, Idaho, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, North Dakota and Illinois while Clinton grabs Michigan and points east. We could end up with no candidate having a majority by the time the convention comes around.

That would certainly make the convention interesting for a change.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

4. Yep. It's backfiring

The plan to give the big states more influence may in fact be diluting it.
Still, I am afraid it is Hillary's to lose.