Will Hillary have to knock Giuliani off his 9/11 pedestal in order to win?

[Rosa Luxemburg]

It is said that Giuliani is basing his hopes on using 9/11 as his election platform for 2008 and is most likely to win the GOP nomination. Hillary has the best hope in winning the Dem nomination (if Gore doesn't enter the race). 9/11 is still a big item. Do you think Hillary can knock Giuliani off his 9/11 perch?

[Dawgs]

1. Why do you think Hillary has best hope in winning the Dem nomination?

Don't believe everything the media is telling you. It's only June.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

3. I would be surprised if she didn't

[TwilightGardener]

2. I believe she can. I think his 9/11 shtick will be tired by then.

[JDPriestly]

4. If she has the will -- yes.

Presidential campaigns are often a test of wills. Assuming Kerry lost, he lost because he did not have as strong a will to win as Bush -- same for Gore. As we have seen with Bush, having excess will -- being overly willful -- may get you elected, but it does not make you a good president. In fact, Bush's will, his excessive desire to win at everything, has been his downfall.

Hillary can easily deflate Giuliani's 9/11 claims. She is very familiar with the situation in New York, and the facts do not support his claims. All Hillary has to do is tell the truth. All she has to do is let the 9/11 officers, firemen and survivors tell their true stories. Giuliani is a fraud.

[rinsd]

5. I think her work with first responders and their health concerns will give her the advantage.

It was Rudy's Office of Emergency Management along with Bush's EPA that reopened Ground Zero and the surrounding areas when the air was still toxic.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

6. Yes Giuliani should be hit with this all the way along

[rinsd]

8. Hillary has him by the shorties on that.

And I can't wait until she unleashes that broadside.

[LoZoccolo]

10. Good call. n/t

[Czolgosz]

7. No. Giuliani will never get the nomination. In fact, he won't even come in second and will have to

fight for third or fourth with Fred.

The Repub nomination will come down to Romney (more money, more evil campaign handlers) versus McCain (sagging in meaningless national polls but still strong where it counts: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, plus he is not a Mormon, which wouldn't matter if Romney was a Democrat but many Repub primary voters will balk at Romney's religion).

Giuliani is fading. This was inevitable given the fact that his values are 180 degrees apart from his core primary constituency (by "his core primary constituency" I'm referring to the theocratic voters, not the neocons and corporatists who are funding Giuliani's campaign - they are tickled pink with Rudy and could care less about abortions, guns, or gay marriage, but they don't have the votes to overcome the theocrats in the primary).

Fred is in the process of rising to the highest point he will ever reach (just when people are excited about a new candidate, but before they learn he's every bit as much of a politician and as much of a douche-bag who doesn't share their values as Rudy McRomney), and he will fade after that peak (and he won't have the organization to compete in Iowa, and won't have the cash to jump-start his campaign after missing Iowa and performing well outside the money in New Hampshire).

I'd say Hillary looks about even money to win the nomination, Obama is about 1-3, and Edwards 1-6. All bets off if Gore runs (but he won't).

Can Hillary beat Romney or McCain? I hope so, but her general election odds are less than Obama's and substantially less than Edwards's.

[RaleighNCDUer]

12. Good analysis. I tend to agree.

Particularly on that Hillary is not, by any means, a sure thing - 50/50 is far from a done deal. There's plenty of time between now and convention time for someone else to surge. Look at Dean in 03.

[Czolgosz]

16. Definitely not a sure think. At this stage 4 years ago, eventual nominee Kerry was behind Gephardt,

Dean, and Lieberman in many polls.

I'm starting to think that it's is almost (but not quite) too late to see a real surge from any of the second tier candidates to become a genuine contender for the nomination, but I bet in the different states, we'll see Obama, Edwards, and Hillary change leads between now and January (and it'll be over by mid-February).

[Rosa Luxemburg]

13. I don't think Guiliani is fading?

but I hope so - I hope the whole GOP fade into oblivion

[Czolgosz]

14. Here's some stuff about Giuliani fading. I hope he doesn't; he'd be Repub ballot poison in the South

and we'd win a bunch of close downballot races if Giuliani is at the top of their ticket (especially if Edwards was at the top of our ticket).

Poll - Rudy Giuliani's Lead Fading Fast:
http://www.bayoubuzz.com/News/US/Politics/President_Race_2008/Poll_Rudy_Giuliani_Lead_Fading_Fast___3646.asp

Rudy Giuliani's Poll Numbers Are Worse Than Reported:
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/articles/rudy-giuliani's-poll-numbers-are-worse-than-reported.html

Romney, Edwards build leads in Iowa poll:
http://politics.wizbangblog.com/2007/05/21/romney-edwards-build-leads-in-iowa-poll.php

Giuliani and McCain to Skip Straw Poll in Iowa:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/07/us/politics/07giuliani.html?ex=1182052800&en=e87af147c017047b&ei=5070

[Awsi Dooger]

17. That's a pipe dream

Republicans are not going to stay home if Giuliani is the nominee. At that point it becomes either/or and they'll have no trouble preferring Giuliani to whomever we nominate, even in the South. It's the same mythology as last year, when many analysts thought the GOP voters would stay home in the midterm. They did not. The Republican base turned out in huge numbers but we swamped them via surreal strength from independents.

I'll be sick if we face Rudy. He changes the dynamic unlike any other Republican. The worst possible general election matchup is Hillary vs. Rudy.

Trust me, McCain has no chance. I post on balanced sites and the right wingers despise and distrust McCain. They'll nominate him the same way we were going to nominate Lieberman in 2004.

[LoZoccolo]

9. I think "have to" is too strong of a statement.

But I think if it could be done, it would send his numbers tumbling.

I say "if it could be done" not because I think there's any substance to the idea that he's a strong leader because of his association with 9/11 or anything, but because I think that people think that way for some irrational reason. I really don't see anything that he did that most mayors wouldn't have done, save for his bad idea of putting the emergency response center in the World Trade Center to begin with after it had been bombed in 1993. He just happened to have been in office at the same time it happened, and for some reason people laud him for that.

[William769]

11. He'll end up knocking himself off that pedestal.

[Totally Committed]

15. I think the subject of 9/11 is all the Republicans have to run on, so

whoever is the nominee will have to engage them energetically on that subject, so he/she'd better be ready to do battle.

TC