Red States Hillary can win or be competitive in

[Herman Munster]

She will hold all the 2004 Kerry states regardless who wins the republican primary. Giuliani is much ado about nothing. He has so much baggage that in a general election campaign he will implode just like he did during his initial campaign against Hillary for the senate.

There is no chance Romney and Thompson will flip any 2004 Kerry states. McCain is pretty much a non entity at this point.

So that leaves us with the states Hillary can win or be competitive in:

* Arkansas - can win (Big Dawg will make sure of it)
* Florida - can be competitive in
* Virginia - can be competitive in
* West Virginia - can be competitive in
* Iowa - can win
* Missouri - can win
* Ohio - can win
* New Mexico - can win
* Arizona - can be competitive in
* Colorado - can win
* Nevada - can win

That's 11 states she can potentially flip in my estimation. She only really needs Ohio to win. But combinations of a handful of the others can most certainly work as well.

[snowbear]

1. LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!!!!

Whatever you say Hermie..

You are such a dedicated HRC'er ~ good for you!!!

But..

[DFW]

2. You're looking at a best case scenario, which is fine for now

But a year from now is when things really count.

At this stage of the game you might as well speculate
about a ticket of Joe Biden and Bill Richardson against
Sam Brownback and Mike Huckabee.

Yes, Hillary looks strong now, at least for the nomination,
but there is a lot of water to yet flow under the bridge.
There are few things to consider: the right wing's hate
machine is locked and loaded should she be the nominee, even
though they would have less to fear from her as President than
they would from Edwards or Al Gore. We don't know who her VP
choice would be, and we don't know if Al Gore will decide to
run after all, and trash every prediction yet made about where
we will stand in 12 or 16 months.

Plus--with the mechanism of tried and true Republican electoral
fraud already in place, and time running out to clean house (make
that disinfect, as they stink) before November, 2008, we need not
only to win those marginal states, but win decisively. If she is the
nominee, due to her baggage, perceived as well as real, she will not
have an easy road to 1600. It CAN happen, but it's too early to bet
your inheritance on it.

[William769]

3. She can win any red State any other Dem can win if not more of them.

[snowbear]

5. Yeah, come to think of it.. Kucinich could take Idaho and Texas easily too..

Well... ..At least that's what his supporters keep saying on here!

I guess the moral to this whole story is..

Be happy and support who YOU think can win.

And just be prepared for a Plan B if it doesn't work out.

Easy enough!

[Ethelk2044]

7. lol

[Dawgs]

12. LOL!!!

You Hillary supporters sure have been funny lately.

[William769]

17. We are funny, serious, but most of all dedicated

Which of course will hake her to be the Next President of the United States. :hi:

[BlueManDude]

4. Zero.

[Nedsdag]

32. I agree.

n/t

[Awsi Dooger]

6. Yeah, but those are states ANY Democratic nominee should have a chance at

The question with Hillary: Does she negate or even reverse our generic advantage in '08?

The only state on that list with a major GOP partisan index edge (comparison of state voting pattern to national) of nearly 10 points is Arizona. Everything else is reasonable although we're bigger underdogs in Missouri and West Virginia than is generally agreed upon.

And don't be too sure about Arkansas. The favorite son (daughter, whatever) dynamic won't be fully in play with Hillary, and even if it were, a state gets blase after a while so you don't get the full boost. That's what happened in Tennessee in 2000. They had already seen Gore on a national ticket in '92 and '96 so it was no longer a big deal. He would have received a much larger bump as a first timer. Similarly, Arkansas isn't going to go wild for Hillary after having Bill atop the ticket in '92 and '96. It's one of the reasons I hope we consider Mark Warner for VP. You'll get a big boost there, even at VP, since Virginia hasn't been represented on a national ticket in so long.

[Hippo_Tron]

8. I don't think anyone will be competitive in West Virginia

That state has shifted rightward in the past decade. It's weird because it went for Dukakis in '88 but Bush won it in a landslide in '04.

[jefferson_dem]

9. Just like Virginia has trended the other way - more Democratic.

Maybe VA will surprise some folks, and make us happy, in '08.

[ChiciB1]

10. Well... I Live In Florida & I SERIOUSLY Doubt This His One Of Her

"good to win" states. I get asked all the time if I support her because I have bumper stickers all over my car.

Of course I DO live in a "red" county, but most Dems I talk to either like Obama or Edwards. Just a little input from my little part of the world.

[churchofreality]

11. Yep, I agree.

All she needs is Ohio or Florida, but other combos are possible.

[ripple]

13. This could be changed to read

Red states Obama is more likely than Hillary to win or be competitive in.

After all, he is polling much better than Hillary in head to head match-ups with potential republican nominees.

[w4rma]

23. Which could be changed again to read

Red states Edwards is more likely than Obama who is more likely than Hillary to win or be competitive in.

After all, he is polling much better than Hillary in head to head match-ups with potential republican nominees.

[ripple]

28. LOL, that it could

Although Obama is also polling ahead of Edwards in head to head matchups with republicans.;-)

[SaveElmer]

14. That is a best case scenario...

The Hillary detractors have so internalized the meme that Hillary has no chance in the general that you will be slammed for this...but the fact is under ideal circumstances all of these states would be in play with a Hillary candidacy...

Arkansas is a good bet...I've seen polls (kinda old now), that have her well ahead there

Florida - no worse chance than past Democratic candidates, and with her potential appeal to women, not at all out of reach

Virginia (my home state) - My take is probably not likely, but definitely worth money to keep Republicans pinned down...

West Virginia - Depends on how the gun issue plays...her appeal to union households could help her here

Iowa - I think this will go Dem no matter who the nominee is

Missouri - Not out of the question, but less likely

Ohio - Have seen a number of polls showing her beating Republican candidates here...Ohio will go Dem

New Mexico - Prime pick up opportunity here

Arizona - Less likely, but not out of the question. If McCain is the nominee forget it

Colorado - Could be a big surprise win here

Nevada - My upset special. Hillary will take it if she is the nominee..

If I had to guess now, Hillary takes Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, and Arkansas...with Florida and Colorado just behind...

[DemDogs]

15. You forget what they will do to her. What she has allowed to be done to her

Imagine the R's GOTV in Arkansas -- I'm not betting she wins Iowa.

Florida - no better but maybe worse than other D candidates who are not hated as much, I would guess

Virginia - Have to take some military family vote and just cannot see it in a state where Webb shows what a real D who cares about military issues sounds like. More Ds stay at home in Virginia, too, I'd guess: those who know her best.

West Virginia - Under no circumstances will she even campaign there. And what makes you think NAFTA Jane is popular with union households?

Iowa - "I think this will go Dem no matter who the nominee is" This may be right but why chance a D running third now. Why do you think Mike Henry of her campaign suggested not doing the caucuses? Think he had polling info you don't have. I do.

Missouri - She will not campaign there.

Ohio - Ohio may go Dem, but she is our worst chance there. Ohio jobs killed by NAFTA. Local candidates don't want her at the top of the ticket. And in 2004, the R's really got out the vote to beat Kerry who got more votes than Gore. Imagine what they will do in 2008, and what they have to work with?

New Mexico - If nominated, she doesn't pick Richardson, who is too much like Bill, and his half-hearted support is a problem for every D

Arizona - Hillary adds nothing.

Colorado - Hillary adds nothing.

[SaveElmer]

16. RW attacks are like a virus...

Those that have been attacked before build up an immunity...those that have not, are vulnerable...

Even Hillary detractors have discounted the myriad bogus scandals surrounding the Clinton's. Everytime they are attacked they become more popular...

On the other hand, one who has not been attacked extensively is vulnerable...hence Swift Boat has legs...

I hope the rw attack machine cranks up against Hillary, will simply prove she is the superior candidate at dealing with it.

[Capn Sunshine]

18. How I wish you would leave your office and visit the real world sometime

The one where Hillary is a horribly flawed candidate with the baggage of an organization that believes in an election strategy that is a sure loser.

[SaveElmer]

19. How I wish...

You would pull your head out of the sand, and recognize the left/right wing meme that Hillary is not electable is simply false...

btw: Where do you suppose I work? You seem to have made a conclusion about me based on the fact I disagree with you!

[Capn Sunshine]

20. ok tell me your pet campaign isn't based inside the beltway

Tell me the genesis for all of its philosophy is not located there or at a think tank in Va, which is just a suburb of the beltway ?

BTW I concluded Hillary's inelectabilty long before it was popular. It's not that I don't like her, I do. I have some nice photos of HRC in my personal collection. I've spent time with her; I think she has charisma. I respect what she's done. But it's important that a Democrat win the WH this time around.

[SaveElmer]

21. Funny...

I am a small business owner in Northern Virginia, active in local civic life, active in local politics, am a precinct captain, so as you can see...I do live in the real world... I support Hillary because I believe she would make the best President...am not privy to her campaign in any way...but.

Looks to me like her campaign strategy is based largely on that of the last Democratic candidate to win the white house...and seems to be working quite well so far...

Do I have more confidence in the political judgment of two people (Bill and Hillary Clinton), who combined are 10-2 in state and national campaigns, including two terms as President and two as Senator, than in the other candidates...you bet I do...and I have seen nothing to persuade me otherwise.

I do not want yet another Democratic candidate (Dukakis, Gore, Kerry), that looks like a frightened deer when attacked by the right wing...I want one that has been through the wringer, been the subject of attack and has a demonstrated ability to deal with it effectively and ruthlessly...

My assessment of Hillary's chance are not solely derived from polls 17 months out, but on her demonstrated skill as a campaigner. She is the one person about whom I do not have to worry when attacked by the rw sleaze machine. Can't say that about any of the others...

[w4rma]

22. That post is right out of the Twilight Zone. (nt)

[election_2004]

24. And Obama/Edwards/Richardson *couldn't* be competitive in those same states....?

Richardson, especially, would probably be even more competitive in those states than Clinton.

[dionysus]

25. standin' downtown at the railway station...one toke over the line.....

[Redneck Socialist]

26. I like wake 'n' bake as much as the next guy, but...

but four twenty six's a little early to be hittin' the bong that hard. LOL!


4:20/insanely optimistic Hilary post. Coincidence? I don't think so. :evilgrin:

[HughBeaumont]

27. Ohio a "can win" for Hillary?

Uh, NO.

FAR too many rural (red) counties housing Fox News junkies, conservatard Christians, males who would "never stand for a female runnin' this country". One major city (Cincinnati) in a red county. 3-5 lavender counties. Cuyahoga, despite being heavily blue, has many Hillary haters residing here. Us, Lorain, Mahoning, Trumbull, Franklin and Athens cannot carry the state. You'd have a hard time selling your polarizing windsock in a state that's been trained to hate anything Clinton since the 90s.

[ShortnFiery]

29. Wait, let me catch my breath?

:rofl:

*I learned this quip from wyldwolf. ;)

[Totally Committed]

30. With all due respect, you live in a dream world...

if you really believe that.

Democrats and Left-Leaning Indies I know won't even vote for her, and Red Staters will? I don't think so.

TC

[NewYorkerfromMass]

31. OTOH she could lose

Ohio, New Hampshire (to Romney), Iowa, Wisconsin, etc... and then we're f'd.

Here's a map I did with the same EV totals from 2004 looking at certain scenarios.