Poll Suggests Gore Entry No Threat to Clinton

[Adelante]

If Al Gore runs for the Democratic presidential nomination, the former vice president appears to draw evenly from the top two contenders, Sens. Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois.

Each loses roughly five percentage points to Gore if his name is included among the hopefuls, according to a new nationwide Gallup survey of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. Clinton holds a wide lead over the field, either way — suggesting that a Gore run might not affect the outcome at all.

With Gore included, Clinton still handily leads the pack at 33 percent while Obama gets 21 percent to Gore’s 18 percent, a statistical dead heat for second place. Take Gore out of the equation and the Gallup poll shows Clinton at 39 percent and Obama at 26 percent.

John Edwards trails badly in either scenario, posting 11 percent at fourth place with Gore in the mix and back to third place at 13 percent without Gore.

http://www.cqpolitics.com/2007/06/craig_crawfords_trail_mix_poll_1.html

[NYCGirl]

1. Except that this poll is BEFORE he declares, Craig. NT

[draft_mario_cuomo]

5. Exactly. Once he begins to run, once he gets the publicity candidates get he will rise to 1st or 2nd

Remember, Clark rode the wave of media attention to 1st place in national polls overnight when he entered the race. He was then a largely unknown figure. If President Gore runs, there will be a tsunami of support shifting to him in the polls. :bounce:

[Exultant Democracy]

21. You are right, these numbers mean next to nothing.

If Gore got into the race and it looked like he had a viable chance to win in the general (not a given) he would smash the ol' apple cart.

[w4rma]

2. The poll doesn't account for people who would switch to Gore if they knew for sure he is running. nt

[JI7]

3. so the Gore support seems pretty equally distributed between Hill and Obama

[LibertyorDeath]

4. Gawd what a load of HORSE SHIT!!

"suggesting that a Gore run might not affect the outcome at all"

WTF are we supposed to believe this Shit.....

[slampoet]

6. Of course he's no threat. The Republicans vote for Hillary and the Real Democratic voters Gore

[BeyondGeography]

7. Too tidy; all hell breaks loose if Gore declares

and anyone who tells you they know exactly what would happen is selling snake oil.

[Donnachaidh]

8. They should change the name of the column to Craig Crawford's Rabbit Pellets

Rather than trail mix - because this is the biggest PILE of manure I've seen YET regarding Gore's effect on the presidential race.

I thought I smelled feces even before I read the column. :evilgrin:

[flyarm]

9. bullshit i say!! i spent the weekend with very strong rethugs..they all said

if gore gets in ..he gets their vote immediately!!

it was an entire family of rethugs..ones with big $$$..grandparents to middle age to their college age kids....and all said they same thing..they don't like anyone currently running..no one..and the one person they could all agree with campaigning for and voting for ..AL GORE!!

run Al Run...or course it helped that i bought Al's Book weeks ago and gave several a copy of His book!!

and shyly they all said..he should have been pres then pissy pants could not have lied us into a war..there was total agreement to that!!

fly

[LibDemAlways]

19. I have a repuke friend who also is looking forward to

an Al Gore run, because he's anxious to vote for him, too. Gore scares the shit out of the pundits and media whores because they all know he'd win in a landslide.

When you have Tweety singing Hillary's praises and looking uncomfortable when Gore is mentioned, you know these guys are frightened.

[OHdem10]

10. With Gore essentially in 20nd place and he is not

even in the race. only 3 points behind Obama--margin of error.
essentially tied for 2ond place. This speaks volumes.



Newt Gingrich analyzed it this way which I found interesting.

For a person with almost 100% Name ID, to be receiving only
33% (Hilary) and Obama never seems to get over lower 20s,
this poll clearly says there is much room available for
a Gore or someother Democrat to get in and take off.

I found this interesting and it sounds reasonable.

[melody]

11. Oh, my god how lame is this

Gore hasn't even declared. He's still in a dead heat for second place.

Besides, what matters is Gore vs the Challenger. That's the important thing. The Clinton
camp (if they really want to win) ought to be thinking of that and not what hay they can
make for their own purposes.

[caligirl]

12. who in the poll actually heard any of Gores recent speeches? The one

at Georgetown? Play them for the poll question and I bet those %'s for him double. He's what we need now.

[Le Taz Hot]

13. Poll is full of shit.

The frontrunners' support is a mile wide and an inch deep. If/When Gore enters the race, watch and see if the vast majority of their grassroots support doesn't bale. The only support they'll have left are their corporate masters.

[Apollo11]

14. They are saying Hillary cannot lose

They are saying she has the nomination already in the bag, 7 months in advance of the Iowa caucuses.

But I have yet to see a national poll with Hillary beating Giuliani in the general.

We know from 2004 that in the primaries most Dems will vote for who they think can beat the GOP.


Whether or not Gore does enter the race depends to a great extent on how many people are calling on him to run.

But if Gore decides not to run, then I think Wes Clark would stand a very strong chance.


Let's all find ways to show our support for Al Gore! :patriot:

Visit Al's site www.algore.com and read his blog http://blog.algore.com

Get ready for Live Earth on 7/7/07: www.liveearth.org

Sign the petitions at www.algore.org and www.draftgore.com

:kick:

[saltpoint]

15. Two considerations strain these findings. One, the polling landscape

is likely to shift, perhaps dramatically, between now and mid-autumn. Two, a Gore entry announcement might further shake voters' perceptions and lend "inevitability" to Gore and not Clinton. Some in now could drop out; some who dropped out could re-enter; and some being discussed could declare candidacy.

This current poll is a snapshot, but the presidential race is cinematic, and its narrative won't be known until many shifts and changes occur.

There a lot of people in my local Democratic circle who will support any of our candidates should they become the nominee, but if Gore enters the race, allegiances will become fluid within the field. I personally don't think a 5% shift covers it.

It would be interesting to do a test group on these questions in western Iowa, New Orleans' 9th ward, and Manhattan's upper east side, just to see how it would play in those disparate districts.

[avrdream]

16. Look, I love Al Gore and voted for him......

it's just that, for the first time, I really feel like he is making a DIFFERENCE where he is at! I know I may get attacked for that here at DU but I am very, very proud of what he is doing for the environment, the country, the world RIGHT NOW. He is probably good enough that he could keep this all going as president but it is one hell of a risk to take, in my very humble opinion. I'm a long way away from you guys right now, being down here in Australia, yet the ONE PERSON whose opinion is printed over and over again here when it comes to global warming is Al Gore. From way down here he has found his voice. I don't want that voice to be silenced by politics.

[flyarm]

20. where he is at isn't getting the masses involved..not like if he were president!!

where he is at is singing to the choir..with a few extra thrown in!! As Pres he has world wide audience ..he can set policy instead of begging for policy which get ignored..by rethugs..and as pres he can get much more accomplished!! in real time!!

fly

[lwesty]

17. They are not counting the holdouts

for Gore. Add 5% of Hillary's and 5% of Obama's plus the 2% from Edwards to the people that are still holding out for Gore and I believe we'll have a bonafide landslide for Gore. Once a few jump ship, more follow.

[disndat]

18. Global warming is the prime issue

in the U.S as well as the world. I can't imagine H.C. uniting the world behind her on this issue that Al Gore owns and would be able to get the whole world to follow his lead.