Rasmussen: 27% Likely to Vote for Bloomberg as Third Party Candidate

[Purveyor]

Friday, June 01, 2007

It’s been 147 years since a “third-party” candidate won the White House. That man, Abe Lincoln is known to history for many things including becoming the first Republican President. Since it hasn’t happened in 147 years, any discussion about third-party campaigns must include the phrase “long-shot.”

Still, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg may be considering such a campaign and is reportedly willing to spend a billion dollars to get his message out. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone poll found that 27% of American voters would be Somewhat (20%) or Very (7%) likely to vote for Bloomberg.

An even larger number—39%--would consider voting for Bloomberg vote under the right circumstances. Just 28% would not vote for him while 33% are not sure.

These numbers suggest that if Bloomberg can find a message that resonates, he might win some states and deny either major party candidate a majority in the Electoral College. That could lead to Electoral Chaos by creating a deadlock in both the Electoral College and the House of Representatives. Such a process would be unprecedented and unpredictable, sure to be studied by historians and political scientists for generations. There’s also an outside chance it could lead to a President Bloomberg.

If Bloomberg somehow found himself in second place as Election 2008 progresses, the dynamics get even more interesting. Remember, Ross Perot was second in the polls six months before the 1992 campaign. But, then he dropped out of the race for a period of time before re-entering the fray. He never regained his earlier status but still wound up with 19% of the vote.

---eoe---

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/27_likely_to_vote_for_bloomberg_as_third_party_candidate

[Purveyor]

1. 27% is a very surprising number to be and the polling was done over 2 weeks ago. eom

[featherman]

2. Not happening in the real world

But...hey...it's June 07 so people can create any scenario they want for the fun of it.

[bigdarryl]

3. As i said before he isn't RUNNING!!!!!

[Superman Returns]

4. this is all about Thompson's recent rise in the polls

Bloomberg is a smart guy. He knows that he would have a very small base if Guiliani and Clinton are the nominees. Essentially, what would Middle America find appealing about a third New York candidate with a socially liberal record? Politically he is not much different than Hillary, while in terms of experience, he's the same as Guiliani minus the 9/11 leadership. The political vacuum would be instead for a socially conservative candidate. However, Thompson changes it all. If he gets the nomination, Bloomberg sees that many would be tired of another, southern, intellectually lazy, bible thumper. He also knows that many independents may not be warm to Hillary. So it really depends on if Thompson gets the nomination.

[SaveElmer]

5. Blank slates always poll high at first...

Plus I don't think he will run...

[Benhurst]

6. Maybe we've declined to the point where the presidency will be

sold on the steps of the Capitol to the highest bidder.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

7. Bloomberg would win if the repuke is seen as unelectable

==In 2008, if it became clear that the Republican candidate couldn’t win, 46% of all voters say they’d pull the lever for Bloomberg over New York Senator Hillary Clinton (D). Just 37% would vote for Clinton. If the Democratic candidate couldn’t win, 35% of voters would prefer former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani while 34% would prefer Bloomberg.==

Of course, as SaveElmer noted, blank slates usually poll will. This result is more an indication of openness to an alternative than actual support for Bloomberg. Still, Bloomberg could be competitive. I think he has a better shot than Perot did.

[illinoisprogressive]

8. the dems should think hard about who they nominate. It will be tough going.

[IndianaGreen]

9. If a "blame the Iraqis" and "keep residual force" candidate is nominated by the DLC, I mean the Dems

A Bloomberg candidacy might look like an attractive alternative to independents and disgruntled antiwar Democrats.

We'll cross that bridge when we get there...