ARG Nevada Poll Clinton 40% Obama 16% Edwards 16%

[Tellurian]

Question:

If the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus were being held today between (names rotated) Joe Biden, Wesley Clark, Hillary Clinton, Christopher Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote?

Would you say that you definitely plan to participate in the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus, that you might participate in the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus, or that you will probably not participate in the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus?

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/nvdem8-701.shtml

[Adelante]

1. Non-partisan preference

Hillary sweeps the category with 52%.

[Tellurian]

2. Hillary is amazing...

She's found her stride and is a runaway!

[Bullet1987]

3. Anybody that buys this poll is foolish...

[Tellurian]

4. How bout this one:

June 20, 2007

Quinnipiac New York poll: Clinton 44%, Gore 18%, Obama 14%, Edwards 6%

[mckeown1128]

14. Wow!

You mean the Senator from New York is leading big in New York. Shocking! :wow:


Honestly, what does a poll about New York have to do with a poll from Nevada???

[independentpiney]

5. these polls are just too wierd

my own unscientific polling method of talking politics whenever i can to people from across the spectrum gives her a +/- 70% disapproval. Out of which +/- 33% of dem-leaning independents swear she's been involved in having someone killed, stupid as it is.

[Tellurian]

8. actually, all people care about is the Economy and Iraq..

People want two things. Their families safe as well as job security.

Everything else falls into place with those two priorities taken care of..

[emilyg]

10. You got it.

Hill is doing good.

[Radical Activist]

11. Me too.

I meet a lot of Democrats and rarely meet anyone who publicly admit to liking Hillary. Who are they polling?

[draft_mario_cuomo]

6. Edwards doubled his support to go from 4th to 2nd nt

:bounce:

[Tellurian]

9. at worst- Tied for 2nd..

Is Obama's campaign disintegrating before our eyes?

Or is this my imagination?

[draft_mario_cuomo]

12. Perhaps. People forget he rode a wave of non-stop positive press for 3 years

Ever since the summer of 2004 Obama received nothing but glowing press. Until last week. Now that the press if given him normal coverage, assuming it continues, he may become the Democratic version of Ghouliani (who rode 6 years of glowing press to a commanding lead in national polls until a few months ago. He has fallen badly since his high perch of 44%). The latest Gallup poll saw him go from a 1 point national lead 2 weeks prior to a 12 point deficit. He remains mired in 3rd in Iowa, his neighboring state which also overlaps media markets with Illinois, and looks to be on his way to 3rd or even 4th (Richardson, who is surging, is only 10 points behind Obama) in Nevada. SC is his saving grace right now but it is hard to see him winning SC if he finishes 3rd in Iowa, 3rd or 4th in NV, and 3rd in NH (a 3rd in Iowa would doom him to 3rd in NH imo).

People fail to realize how image dependent Obama is. He was in the 20's in the polls before he even said a single word about what he would do as president. One poll had him in the 20's as early as November of 06'. If the image is tarnished, the candidate crumbles. Few people are voting for him based on issues or the record. That makes his support the most fluid. He is sitting on top of a house of cards.

[mckeown1128]

15. Obama makes an improvement and you ask if

he is disintegrating. Obama has caught up to Edwards in this poll. Hillary gained 3 since the most recent Nevada poll (mason-dixon) Edwards has also gained 3, and Obama gained 4. Hmm. yeah he is really disintegrating. :sarcasm:

Here is a link to Nevada polls.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Nevada

[draft_mario_cuomo]

16. That is a flawed way of assessing trends

Why? Different polling firms use different methodologies. This is why you see such wildly fluctuating polls in SC and FL. The best way to assess trends is to compare a poll to the last poll done by that firm. In the last poll Obama led Edwards 12-8; now they are tied. Kerry's exclusion from this poll, the drop in undecideds is why while Obama gained 4 points, Edwards tied him (Edwards doubled his support, gaining 8 points).

It should be noted that Edwards leads Obama 17-16 among Democrats, 89% of likely voters in the NV caucus, while Obama leads him among independents 20-9 (HRC gets a surprising and whopping 52% of the non-partisan vote).

[SoxFan]

7. ARG

ARG works mainly for Republicans (Charlie Bass, Frank Guinta), and the pollster is known in his home state as a pay-for-play fraud.

[mckeown1128]

13. ARG always has Hillary up more than she is in the...

other polls. But she has been about this far up in Nevada since they started polling their. Check out the Nevada polls here.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Nevada