Florida: HRC 37, Obama 21, Edwards 20. Ghouliani leads Thompson on "R" side

[draft_mario_cuomo]

June 20, 2007

Clinton, Giuliani Ahead in Florida

In Florida, a new Strategic Vision (R) poll shows Sen. Hillary Clinton leading the Democratic presidential race with 37%, followed by Sen. Barack Obama at 21% and John Edwards at 20%.

On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani leads with 30%, followed by Fred Thompson at 24%, Sen. John McCain at 11% and Mitt Romney at 8%.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/06/20/clinton_giuliani_ahead_in_florida.html

[mckeown1128]

1. Good news...

Obama is up 5 since the last florida poll. Edwards is up 8. Hillary only up 1.

[Benhurst]

2. With a margin of error of +/- 3, so ...

:shrug: even if the polls mean anything this far out.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

4. I think you are thinking of the last FL Zogby poll

The last poll from this firm (mid-May): HRC 37, Obama 20, Edwards 19 (So Edwards and Obama gained 1 point)
The last Florida poll (Insider advantage, early June): HRC 40, Obama 35, Edwards 14

I think you are thinking of the Zobgy poll, also from the first week of June which had HRC at 36, Obama at 16, and Edwards at 11.

The best way to assess trends, especially in NV and FL, is to compare the previous result by the same firm, since they will use the same methodology and this offers reliability, if not accuracy. Based on that there is no real change.

Here is a compilation of FL polls (they fluctuate wildly):

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_democratic_primary-261.html#polls

[mckeown1128]

6. Yes, I was refering to the zogby

Will florida even count? I haven't heard much about it since it's early switch.

[MidwestTransplant]

3. The most interesting part is McCain at 11%. That guy is finished.

Also that Giulani is at 30%. He is simply not going to be the Republican nominee.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

5. He looks like he is toast. He is tied for 5th in Iowa and 4th in SC (6 and 7%!)

Still, Kerry looked done at one point too.

As you noted, Ghouliani is not going to win. His support will fall dramatically as people begin to tune in, as he gets scrutinized in the media after a 6 year honeymoon until this spring. He has already fallen from a peak of 44% in national polls to 28%. The question is where will his support go?

I think the repuke nominee will either be Thompson or Romney.

[MidwestTransplant]

7. Kerry's argument was that he was the anti-Dean and electable

I don't think McCain will be able to draw a similar analogy.