Eric Alterman: Think Again: Poll Faults

[babylonsister]

http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/06/poll_faults.html

Think Again: Poll Faults

By Eric Alterman

June 21, 2007

You see it every time a new national presidential poll comes out: Pundits elbowing each other to decipher the new numbers and determine who’s beating who in the pre-primary primary (remember, barring early state dust-ups, nobody is voting until January, six months from now). But like a lot of what passes for media coverage of the presidential race, it’s mostly masturbatory.

Leaving aside their political pre-maturity, in terms of words ejaculated from the keypads of our pundit class, the truth is that if this was election time, the national polls would not matter much, particularly relative to the key state polls where each respective nomination will be determined. This early in the race, most voters aren’t paying enough attention to the differences between candidates because most aren’t being targeted by campaigns. If campaigns are only focusing on talking about issues and character in certain places, why is it so important that we measure the opinions of people who haven’t even been introduced to the candidates?

Eight years ago today, George W. Bush’s high standing in the polls was largely due to the fact that many of his supporters thought he was his father. Or you might argue that early national polling is a good way to determine if candidates are “electable”—Jonathan Chait puts a recent L.A. Times poll to that use. But if the country at large hasn’t met these candidates yet, how can we forecast what a race between them might be like?

snip//

So who’s actually winning in the early primary states? In Iowa, it’s Edwards, Clinton, and then Obama on the Democratic side, and Giuliani, McCain, and Romney for the GOP. Both line-ups differ considerably from the national line-up, and both indicate that, despite emerging media narratives, there is still room for surprises down the road.

All this just reinforces the conventional wisdom about Iowa, which in this rare case is conventional because it’s true. But that doesn’t mean it’s the best way to choose a presidential candidate. Ken Baer, riffing off the Clinton Iowa fuss, wrote about the potential of a revamped national primary system. Clearly, the system we have now undercounts minorities and, well, anyone who doesn’t live in Iowa or New Hampshire. This is another matter worthy of more media attention, but not the modified horserace coverage that passes for it: New Hampshire in the lead, but Florida gaining.

So when you read an article like this one: “Poll: Clinton establishes sizable lead over Obama,” just remember my masturbation metaphor, and well, keep it to yourself...

[Supersedeas]

1. In that case, Tweety Matthews is the Queen of Boy Love masturbation