If Bloomberg announced before January, would that affect the Primaries?

[jcrew2001]

I just think that a Bloomberg candidacy would take away from the appeal of Hillary and Rudy.

Dem and Rep voters who thought about voting for either because they were more "centrist/electable" but didn't like either, would be more wiilling to vote for another candidate in the primary.

Dem swing voters would look at Obama or Edwards.

Rep swing voters will look at Thompson or Romney.

They won't be burdened by having to choose the "most electable" centrist.

[rpannier]

1. I'm not sure that Bloomberg would necessarily come off as more acceptable to centrist

voters than HRC or ghouliani.

[jcrew2001]

2. There are many voters who choose the most electable

person to win the matchup. Will a voter pick Hillary against Bloomberg if he thinks Bloomberg is better than Hillary?

Would a voter pick Rudy as the nominee, if he thinks Bloomberg is better than Rudy?

Or would they choose someone they are comfortable with and actually like - Obama or Edwards; or Thompson.

[Toots]

3. Primaries are for Party members and Bloomberg is not a Democrat

He would not be a part of the Democratic Primaries. Will he effect the general election, yes probably but I think Republicans would be affected more than Democrats. Republicans are not happy campers and they are quite likely to vote for an Independent but would hesitate at voting for a Democrat. They have been fed way to much hate...

[jcrew2001]

4. Some voters choose electability which is not Hillary's strength

and for those Dem voters who are unsure about Hillary - but for some reason think she's got the best shot in the genereal election, will see that Bloomberg is a better northeast alternative. So if Bloomberg announces an exploratory committee in January - that would give Dem voters a reason for voting for Obama or Edwards, to combat the Northern stronghold of Bloomberg by instead focusing on gaining a mid-west or southern stronghold. If Hillary is the nominee, then she will have to spend lots of time and money in the northeast against bloomberg, when she needs to be focused on the mid-west and south.

The South is wide open for Edwards in the General Election - he can take Ark, VA, NC, WV. Southern voters are ready to jump ship and vote Democrat.

In additiona, rep primary voters would be hesistant to vote for Rudy, esp if they like Bloomberg better. They might then go with Thompson or Romney; there would no longer be a reason to vote for Rudy if Bloomberg is in the race.

[Toots]

7. You do know that Hillary was elected in New York with wll over sixty percent

She has proven she is very electable in the Northeast so I don't know what kind of pipe you are smoking from. Bloomberg won New York City which was no real big deal since it had been a Republican that Bloomberg replaced. And it still would not effect the way people in New Hampshire or Ohio vote in their Primary. Your whole argument just makes no sense especially sinse all the facts speak differently.

[jcrew2001]

8. So you're saying that Bloomberg can win NYC and give the

rest of the state to Hillary in the 2008 election? If you know anything about NY politics, whoever wins NYC wins NY state. More likely Bloomberg will win upstate and he'll win NYC.

[Mz Pip]

5. Bloomberg doesn't need the primaries

if he runs as an Independent. All he needs to do is get on the ballot for the general election. That requires enough signatures from each state. Shouldn't be that hard for him to do since he can fund an army of signature gatherers.

Once he's on the ballot and starts polling high enough, he'll be in the final debates.

Should be interesting.

Mz Pip
:dem:

[jcrew2001]

6. My theory is that primary voters will hold their nose

to vote for Hillary or Rudy.

But with Bloomberg in the mix - they will then vote for the person they like better.

[saltpoint]

9. Run effectively, Bloomberg's campaign could draw more than Perot in 92.

Done poorly, it could be a train wreck.

I don't think Giuliani will be the GOP nominee. If he is, I don't see the nutbag fundies showing up in historic numbers to support him. They wouldn't support Bloomberg either, and fundamentalists generally won't support any Democrat. They'll either stay home or run one of their more prominent right-wing kooks on yet another independent slot -- maybe Brownback for instance.

Bloomberg has plenty of cash on hand to spend on this project if he wants to. The fundies won't consider him a centrist and will prefer one of their own. He may draw some fiscally conservative but socially moderate Republican votes. He may even siphon a few Democratic votes from Democrats unhappy with our nominee.

But I'm not sure he can defeat a strong Democratic ticket in a year when events are conspiring to favor a Democrat in the White House and further Congressional losses for the GOP.