Which of the candidates not in the "3 top tier" could turn out a dark horse?

[snowbear]

~ ~ ~

For the sake of this fun poll, aside from Clinton, Obama, and Edwards ~~

---- if you had to select one of the remaining candidates that you think has the potential to be a "surprise dark horse", who would it be?

Not "who do you wish was running" --

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

I mean -- of the five candidates not in the limelight, which one has the best chance of making a major come from behind?

~ ~ ~ ~

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

p.s. It's also not who you think will get the nomination necessarily -- just who you think may garner some surprising momentum further down the trail! ~~~~~

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

~~~ ~~~ (Because some times polls should be just for FUN!)

[JI7]

1. so far it's Richardson

[snowbear]

3. Yeah..

According to Ed Schultz on the radio the other day, he said "Richardson is masterful in his duties as far as running New Mexicio, and his resume is impeccable ---


"but Bill will be the first to tell you, he feels uncofortable in a debate format.

Maybe when they give him a chance to talk about what he really knows --- foreign affairs, etc., maybe he'll do better in the next debate?

Anyone know when the next debate is BTW?

[JI7]

4. i think Hillary will over power him as she is with everyone else

i think his best chance is if he can convince voters one on one of his record and what he could do. that he may not be good in debates and/or speeches or anything like that,b ut when it comes to governing he is the best.

personally i don't think he will be able to actually win but he might win over enough to get notice and maybe influence other candidates.

[saltpoint]

2. If Iraq is as disastrously unstable and as remorselessly violent in

the fall as it is right now, it might be a moment for someone with demonstrable foreign policy expertise to draw the loyalty of early caucus/primary voters.

Joe Biden got my vote in your poll. Chris Dodd a respectable second. Richardson third.

[Catchawave]

26. Toss-up here ...

I like both Biden and Richardson, but voted for the Governor in larissa's poll :)

How ya doin' OC :hi: I'm testing a new sig line :patriot:

[saltpoint]

35. I'm just one vote, Catchawave, but I vote YAY! for your new sig line.

Tremendous stuff. I love it.

Richardson's a good man. I'd hire him for just about anything, except maybe principal violist for a philharmonic.

And maybe even for that.

Damn, we Democrats sure got us a great field of folks for 08. Pity the hapless GOP with their line-up of lunatics and wackos.

Good to see ya around these parts as always, Catchawave.

[pinto]

5. Richardson.

Foreign policy experience, administrative experience, first hand experience in conservation and environmental concerns (ie, water, BLM land holdings, growth), first hand experience with cultural issues (immigration, Native American concerns), Southwestern, Latino.

Not telegenic, overly wordy in the debates, diplomatic, not a firebrand - which seems the media's 'cause celebre' this political season - but a legitimate dark horse in the race.

:shrug:

[On the Road]

6. Personally, I Doubt that Any of Them Will Make a Move

Richardson has by far the best credentials. He might even be my #1. But he GOT to find a way to connect with the voters and give them something to be excited about.

It may not come naturally, but Dean and Gore found a way to do it. And it is absolutely essential.

[Adelante]

7. Richardson nt

[rep the dems]

8. Richardson. Dems will hope to capitalize on the West in '08 since

we did well there in the Midterms. Plus he's a Governor, and Governors usually do better than Senators.

[oberliner]

9. Joe Biden is this election's John Kerry

Low in the polls early, a lot of experience, knows foreign policy.

I think that it's possible that Obama could be the Howard Dean to Biden's Kerry.

[jillan]

12. Agreed! n/t

[rep the dems]

19. God I hope you're wrong. nt

[Bucky]

38. Interesting. Not sure I agree, but years and years of experience should count for something

On paper, he's probably the best qualified. I don't always agree with him (or any other pol, ftm) but he's hardly the corporate stooge some DUers make him out to be. I think if he's nominated he's probably the one most likely to capitalize on the pro-Democratic mood of the country.

[IndianaGreen]

41. Biden is an idiot! Kerry can run circles around him,

Biden is always pontificating as to what the Iraqis need, without ever asking himself why is a foreign occupation power telling Iraqis what's best for them.

US should leave Iraq and the Middle East!

[StudentsMustUniteNow]

10. Honestly, Kucinich. Especially with Michael Moore's film coming out

The other candidates don't address the issues as head-on as Kucinich does, and this is coming from someone who likes Biden a hell of a lot.

[Freddie Stubbs]

22. If Michael Moore's movies could win elections, Bush would have lost by a landslide in 2004

[Moloch]

11. Kucinich is finished.

His latest vanity run seems to be attracting even less interest than his 2004 campaign.

I'd go with Richardson.

[Warren DeMontague]

32. That's funny. I didn't take him seriously at all in '04, and I'm all set to vote for the guy.

I think you underestimate the depth to which many of us long-time party stalwarts are tired of the "same ol' same ol'" bullshit.

[nickinSTL]

46. Vanity run?

yeah, right. Vanity.

It's about the ISSUES. not Kucinich. Issues.

[Nederland]

48. Yes, Vanity

If it were about issues Kucinich would spend his efforts helping someone with more charisma and political skill--you know, someone who could actually win.

[nickinSTL]

49. no...because none of the other candidates...

those with "charisma and political skill", according to you...have the courage to give support to many of the causes Kucinich has championed both in the House and on the campaign trail.

[Nederland]

51. Oh I get it

So Kucinich is the one and only one who can save us.

Yeah, that's not vanity at all is it?

[nickinSTL]

52. no, he's the only one with the courage to stand up for

a number of positions I agree with.

One of the things I hope for him to achieve with his candidacy is to force the "front-runners" to take some of those positions seriously.

Vanity? I see vanity in a first-term (or early 2nd term) senator with what I'd consider a rather weak record on a number of issues running for president. Not in a congressman who's fought to oppose the Bush administration at almost every turn, even when it was unpopular to do so.

[Jillian]

13. What worries me about Richardson, is that his state doesn't look so good

This bothers me alot more than his debating skills


On Health issues last year

New Mexico was ranked No. 40 on the list, down from 38th place in last year's list, and was found to be 10.4 percent below the national norm.
http://www.abqjournal.com/news/state/aphealth12-06-06.htm

New Mexico
-4.2

The principal reasons for the changes in these states are:

New Mexico: The prevalence of smoking increased from 20.3 percent to 21.5 percent of the population, the rate of high school graduation decreased from 67.4 percent to 63.1 percent of ninth graders who graduate in four years and the immunization coverage decreased from 83.5 percent to 78.4 percent of children ages 19 to 25 months receiving complete immunizations
-----------------
http://www.newwest.net/index.php/main/article/4103

New Mexico By The Numbers: Not a Pretty Picture?


By Emily Esterson , 10-31-05

Down at the bottom of another list: That seems to be the ongoing fate of New Mexico. A University of Massachusetts study, the Work Environment Index,paints an interesting picture of the nation's work environment. New Mexico ranked the state 44th out of 50 in job opportunities, job quality, and workplace fairness. Utah ranked 48th, and New Mexico's neighbors on the annual "poorest states" list, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas, all ranked in the bottom third.

And according to an article in the Albuquerque Tribune, New Mexico came in "dead last" for the proportion of workers with health insurance and retirement benefits.

[OHdem10]

27. My Party has to learn the importance of Taxcuts--on Fox News

He used to be called on Fox to do like Joe Lieberman
and shake a finger at Democrats.

In this campaign, he looks like he is one big panderer.
I know he is trying to ditingush himself from others
but instead it looks like pandering.

He would never win the general. Does not inspire confidence
needed in a president.

I am sure he is a nice guy.

[Cosmocat]

44. YEP ... That is why he is the GOP/MSM pick ...

for "darkhouse" ...

They like Richardson NOW, because it is a dem field ... If he was the nominee, they would evicerate him ...

[NewYorkerfromMass]

29. NM is a very, very, poor state

Between poverty and language problems amongst all the Hispanics and in the Indian pueblos, it is a very poor state. Richardson has in fact made it better, despite those stats.
However, I do not like Richardson, not least of which is his failure to secure a recount in the Kerry/Bush election. Richardson hurriedly swept it under the rug.

Also, I think Dodd will be the dark horse.

[w4rma]

14. None. Biden is in with the credit companies. Richardson has no charisma. Noone knows who Dodd is.

Kucinich and Gravel are stereotyped as fringe vanity candidates.

None of them.

[Atmosphere]

15. Richardson

A lot of people are talking about him but I think he's a complete jackass. At least from what I saw in the debates.

[polichick]

16. I'd say Bill is already Hill's choice for veep...

He'll be the lefty on the ticket, esp. regarding Iraq and alt. energy ~ and bring those important southwestern electoral votes with him.

[Bucky]

39. Bill Richardson a "lefty"? Shirley, you jest.

I liked Richardson early on. But I gotta say he really hasn't dazzled on the stump. His perf in the debates was lackluster. He's a substance candidate. And one thing voters really hate is candidates with substance.

[polichick]

42. From what I've read, Hill and Bill are good friends...

And she definitely needs the western electoral votes.

I only called him a lefty in reference to a Clinton-Richardson ticket; he's left of her on some key issues.

[snowbear]

17. A few guesses I have on who would pick who....

...If Richardson is nominated, he'll pick WV Governor Joe Manchin (just read an article about the two of them)

...If Obama is nominated, he'll pick General Wes Clark

...If Clinton is nominated, she'll pick former IA Governor Tom Vilsack

...If Edwards is elected, he'll pick former VA Governor Mark Warner

...If Dodd is elected, he'll pick AR Governor Mike Beebe

...If Kucinich is elected, he'll pick Army Major Tammy Duckworth

...If Biden is elected, he'll pick NC Governor Mike Easley

...If Gravel is elected, he'll pick Congressman Pete Stark

Ok.. your turn!

[justinrr1]

18. Definitely Biden

He has the experience, foreign policy expertise, and a reasonable plan for Iraq.

[saltpoint]

36. Agree. And he gets a visceral, positive response from the crowds

he's talking to.

At some point I see that success translating into donations and grassroots support.

[SaveElmer]

20. Richardson on resume, and the fact he is creeping up in Iowa and New Hampshire...

But Biden has been the most impressive of the second tier so far IMO

[ClassWarfare2008]

21. Probably Richardson.

Gore is my preferred candidate overall, but if he sits this one out, Richardson is the next best qualified candidate.

Let's admit the reality right now that we tried to overlook in 2004: SENATORS CANNOT WIN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS.

I like Obama, though he's not that experienced. I like a lot of things about Edwards. There are things that I don't really like about Richardson. Hillary? not even going there....

But it's just a statistical fact that a governor's got a better chance of winning (assuming a Vice President and winner of the 2000 election isn't in the mix)

[Stop Cornyn]

23. Regrettably, none of them has a snowball's chance (and the odds are getting increasingly long for

Obama and Edwards).

I say regrettably because I think Kucinich has the best ideas of any candidate in the field.

At this stage, I think Hillary looks like an even money bet, which is a shame because she be the weakest agent for change among the top three candidates (and - with the possible exceptions of Richardson and Biden - the weakest agent for change of all the candidates).

[flaminbats]

24. Mike Gravel..

I think he would be the darkhorse candidate with the best chance of defeating a Republican, especially if Bloomberg is running! yet of these five, I think Richardson is still the most likely to appear on the ticket as someone's running mate.

[Clark2008]

25. I'd guess Richardson since he's primed to out-raise Edwards

this quarter.

[MonkeyFunk]

28. probably none of them

I would've thought Richardson had the best chance, but so far he's failed to really step up.

[SergeyDovlatov]

30. Richardson n/t

[mrigirl]

31. probably Biden

because when it comes right down to it he has the most experience out of any of the presidential candidates including even Hillary. He alone has the plan for Iraq which others are starting to accept as a possibilty including Republicans. His plan for Iraq and Homeland Security could make him rise above the other candidates. When Biden gets the oppurtunity to speak at these upcoming debates- you watch- his popularity may increase when people actually take the time to listen to him. Biden is an expert on foreign policy and right now that's what we need. And we need a moderate Democrat in office to create a bi-partisan government to actually get something accomplished during this next presidency.

[SergeyDovlatov]

37. Biden is pro-war

With 70% of american people strongly against Iraq war, it would be difficult for a pro-war candidate to win

[Bucky]

40. An oversimplification.

He favors ending the war and his platform offers sound suggestions on how to wind down our occupation of Iraq.

[Inuca]

45. Biden pro war????

Surely you jest.

[Warren DeMontague]

33. Kucinich. For all his flaws, the American people are far more liberal than most give them credit for

They're ready for someone who will take on some sacred cows.

[tammywammy]

34. Richardson

[churchofreality]

43. Richardson sucked in the debates.

He's going nowhere.

[themaguffin]

47. Like Richardson, but he's not good in debates; Biden might be best in debates

Both have some serious foreign policy attributes and it seems more likely that people will veer towards Biden's Iraq plan.... I know Biden is disliked and dismissed as a self involved beltway corporate Dem, but really listening to his depth should dispel some of that, but I doubt people will....

[ddeclue]

50. NONE!

You should offer that as a possible answer - it's my answer.

Doug D.