Capturing the Rural Vote

[Joanne98]

Capturing the Rural Vote
by Mike Connery, Sun Jun 24, 2007 at 12:38:03 PM EST
http://www.mydd.com/

Tucked away at the end of the latest newsletter from Young Voter Strategies is some interesting poll results from Greenberg, Quinlan and Rosner Research and Greener and Hook about the political leanings of rural voters. YVS did the dirty work of pulling out the youth stats from the crosstabs (pdf) and here's what they found:


Two-thirds (67%) of 18-29 year old rural voters say they feel the country is on the wrong track, while 21% say it's going in the right direction.

48% approve of President Bush's job performance, while 47% disapprove. (Overall, the survey found 44% approval and 52% disapproval)

On party identification, 46% of rural 18-29 year olds identify as Republican, 43% as Democratic, and 11% as Independent.

In 2004, the group of 18-29 year olds surveyed voted 55-35 in favor of George W. Bush over John Kerry.

One-quarter (26%) of 18-29 year olds say Iraq is the most important issue the President and Congress should pay attention to, followed by energy & gas prices (19%), illegal immigration (14%), the economy & jobs (13%), and health care (11%).

When asked to pick between generic Republican and Democratic presidential candidates for 2008, 48% chose the Democrat and 40% the Republican. Conversely, when asked to choose between unnamed Republican and Democratic presidential candidates as described by two issues/values statements, 53% chose the Republican and 46% the Democrat.

This is great news, because it means we can actually be competitive again in these rural districts. It's pretty clear that Democrats could stand to make some solid gains in rural districts in 2008 if these trends continue. I'm particularly looking at the difference between the hypothetical candidate numbers and the actual numbers for Bush v. Kerry.

It looks like one of two things is happening: either independents (like elsewhere in the country) are swinging to the Dems and making us more competitive in these districts, or the rise of the more progressive Millennial Generation - which only comprised half of the 18-29 age bracket in '04 - is changing the partisan makeup of these rural districts. On first glance, the numbers on partisan identification seem to belie this theory, but I'd be willing to bet that in 2004 Democratic self identification was much lower than 43%, and Republican and Independent ID was higher.

I'd love to hear from folks in rural districts which they think is happening - more progressive Millennials entering the electorate, or more independents and moderate Republicans swinging to the left. I'd also love to hear what they are doing to engage and motivate young voters to make the most of this swing. As I'm sure you've all heard by now, young people tend to pick their party allegiance during the first three major elections in which they vote. Investing in these voters now can give Democrats a solid base within rural districts for years to come.

The report accompanying the poll (pdf - only 7 pages, read it) has a lot of equally good news about the general rural electorate. More info on that after the jump.
http://www.mydd.com/