Presidential Candidate WON'T be chosen until the Convention

[the other one]

The new front-loaded primary schedule is certain to create chaos for both parties. The idea was to establish the candidate early in order to clear the way for fundraising. The convention becomes a coronation and a pep rally.

The focus on early primary states that characterized previous cycles is probably irrelevant. In the past, the media attempted to turn it into a horse race; national polls mattered little, because the dynamics were formed around Iowa and New Hampshire. The media would trumpet the momentum that the winners of the early primaries garnered, and this in turn would affect the later primaries.

With a front-loaded primary schedule, the momentum factor may become irrelevant. The races are on top of each other, and the voting could be over before the media can shape the horse race. A split convention could be guaranteed for both parties, ironically the very outcome the new schedule was intended to avoid.

How will this affect Democrats?

The Edwards campaign in particular has focused on Iowa and New Hampshire. They hope to turn early victories into momentum. But this is last years strategy, and this time around it might not work. In any other cycle I would assert that Edwards is poised to steal the limelight early and ride the momentum to the nomination. Now I am not so sure.

Illinois announced plans to move up its own primary. They hope to give favorite son Barack Obama a healthy dose of early momentum of his own. This could reinvigorate a campaign that is increasingly seen as flavor-of-last-month.

As far as Clinton is concerned, early polling could prevent another candidate from gaining the momentum to take over the top spot, but the early primary schedule could cost her the nomination in the end because Edwards and Obama will win enough delegates to insure a brokered convention.

Who benefits from a brokered convention? Al Gore. He is the only person who could skip the primary season altogether, and then be offered as a compromise candidate at the convention to almost universal support within the party.

NOTE: The Republicons will probably have their own version of this scenario, but I don't want to discuss how Newt Gingrich wins the GOP nomination.

[Stinky The Clown]

1. This is not a new theory. I, for one, agree that it is quite plausible.

And I'd be happy to see it transpire. The buzz at the end, particularly if Al Gore never declares in the primary and then gets the nom, will be unprecedented.

It also GREATLY compresses the GE campaign season ..... another good thing for Al Gore.

Gore v Gingrich ..... interesting, no?

[Buzz Clik]

2. Now I'm confused. You're telling me it will be more than a YEAR before we choose?

Why then all the polls? All the debates? The stumping, trips to Iowa, New Hampshire, and tv ads?

Luckily, I had resolved to ignore all this until Novemeber 2007. Now, I may push that back a few more months.

[Redbear]

3. Wow. Conventions at which something actually happens.

What a concept.

[On the Road]

4. You Know, I Had Accepted the Conventional Wisdom

that a Super-Duper Tuesday would be likely to result in any early winner. But as you point out, that leaves no way for one state to influence the others.

I doubt it will result in a brokered convention. I will probably result in the front-runners being annointed. Meaning if Edwards and Richardson are going to make a move, pretty much the only way they can do it is in Iowa or NH.

[sueh]

5. Yes, yes, yes...

I agree, this scenario has a real possibilty. I'm from Illinois, and I think that our "well known" convention delegates (Senator Durbin, State Senator Debbie Halvorsen, Mayor Daley to name a few) will want to cast their nomination ballot for Obama. This definitely would be a way to do it. We shall see.

I really do hope to see a see a brokered convention in my lifetime.