Edwards' Crumbling Campaign is Bad News for Clinton

[Adelante]

At the end of 2006, with Mark Warner out and former Vice President Al Gore on the sidelines, John Edwards posed the greatest threat to Senator Clinton's hold on the Democratic nomination. Obama's formal entry into the race immediately split the substantial anti-Hillary vote, which worked to Senator Clinton's advantage and John Edwards' detriment.

On the surface the Democratic race has remained rather static over the last three months - at least as far as the horserace numbers between Clinton and Obama. But not enough attention has been paid to Edwards' crumbling campaign and its consequences on the Democratic contest.

Back in mid-April Edwards peaked in the RCP Average at 17.8%, while Clinton held a 12.8% advantage over Obama, 35.8% to 23.0%. Today, the Clinton - Obama race is virtually unchanged, with the New York Senator holding a 12.4% edge, 36.0% to 23.6%. Edwards, on the other hand, has lost over 30% of his support and has seen his national numbers fall to 12.4% in the latest RCP Average. The most recent Washington Post and Los Angeles Times polls have his national numbers in single digits at 8%. In the InTrade prediction markets Edwards' odds to be the Democratic nominee have plunged from 25% at the beginning of the year to only 5% today.

So while the national horserace numbers between Clinton and Obama have remained unchanged during the last quarter, Edwards' implosion has strategically weakened Senator Clinton's hold on the nomination. The Clinton campaign wants to neutralize Edwards and to limit the odds of him breaking out with an early win in Iowa. But they don't want to see Edwards' campaign totally implode and allow the anti-Hillary forces to rally behind an increasingly powerful Senator Obama.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/06/the_edwards_implosion_is_bad_n.html

[ShortnFiery]

1. Yes, those votes will swing to Obama before HRC.

What? I have to jump on this "good news" before the learned opponent's posse shows up with da Sheriff. ;)

[Adelante]

4. I tend to think so and have been saying Obama needs

to be breaking Edwards now so he can face Clinton clear before the fall.

But this swing state poll gave me pause, because, if I read it right, it indicates Edwards support could move more significantly to Clinton than to Obama, at least in these states.

1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson for whom would you vote?

REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
FL OH PA

Biden 2% 1% 5%
Clinton 38 40 32
Dodd 1 - 1
Edwards 8 12 7
Gore 13 12 16
Gravel - - -
Kucinich 1 3 1
Obama 15 12 18
Richardson 2 1 2
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 2
DK/NA 15 16 15



WITHOUT GORE (Based on second choice of Gore Supporters)

FL OH PA

Biden 2% 1%% 6%
Clinton 43 46 38
Dodd 1 - 1
Edwards 11 15 10
Gravel - - -
Kucinich 1 3 1
Obama 16 14 22
Richardson 2 1 2
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 3
DK/NA 18 17 15



WITHOUT EDWARDS (Based on second choice of Edwards Supporters)

FL OH PA

Biden 2% 1% 5%
Clinton 40 45 35
Dodd 2 - 1
Gore 15 12 17
Gravel - - -
Kucinich 2 4 1
Obama 16 15 19
Richardson 2 1 3
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 2
DK/NA 16 18 16



From June 18 - 25, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
949 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percent, including 373 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percent, and 359 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percent;
1,013 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent, including 343 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.3 percent, and 370 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percent;
958 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percent, including 398 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent and 444 Democrats, each with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percent.


http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1079

[aquart]

2. Yet I'm still voting for Edwards. Go figure.

[Radical Activist]

3. Edwards isn't dead yet.

I think Edwards or Obama will win the nomination. People will see how weak Hillary's position really is once the early primary states start voting. All Edwards needs to do is come in first or second in Iowa and South Carolina.

[mohc]

6. Way too soon

John Kerry was running 5th or 6th in the polls with a whopping 7%, not in June or September, but in December 2003. It is way too soon to be judging campaigns by their relative position right now. On the same note, it is way too soon to judge Hillary by the head to head general polls we have seen, and in fact, it will still be too early to do so until after the deciding primaries are over. We are just going to have to support the candidate we honestly think is best, and just wait and see what happens.

[DFW]

38. Wow, common sense!

I'm gonna be teetering on the edge of my chair, waiting to see if you get away with it!

[maximusveritas]

5. Edwards may be on the rebound

The Coulter thing worked before and it looks like it may be working this time as well, so Edwards should be able to stem the freefall he had been experiencing. All he needs is to hang around nationally and maintain his lead in Iowa.

[Strawman]

11. Yep. John Kerry was "dead" around this time last cycle

If Edwards wins Iowa, he becomes the most viable challenger to Hillary Clinton. Last I saw, he was still doing well in some important early states like Iowa and South Carolina. And with Bonior running his campaign, he will do well in Michigan.

[Bitwit1234]

7. Why don't we crown Obama and throw Edwards under the bus

In my estimation, I think those that favor Edwards, if he drops out or looses too many states will go for Hillary. There is absolutly no contest there.

[Adelante]

9. That's what the swing state poll seemed to say nt

[slick8790]

20. Not this edwards supporter.

[SaveElmer]

8. Is there evidence Edwards supporter would flock to Obama...

Polling I have seen says otherwise. For most Obama and Edwards supporters Hillary is the preferred second choice....

She bests them both pretty badly in head to head matchups....

[jsamuel]

17. We finally agree on something :)

There is no polling data to suggest that Edwards supporters would support Obama or vice versa. No one has done that.

[sandnsea]

10. Fire Trippi

He is a disaster. Find someone who understands that the disenfranchised are not all left wing radicals. Go get the single working mother vote.

[Totally Committed]

13. That was my first thought when I saw the word "implosion".

That having been said, and not being an Edwards supporter myself, it's awfully early to call a campign as "imploding" -- I mean, isn't he ahead in Iowa? How can a campign implode when the first state out of the stalls is set to go to him?

It's way too early, and hopefully, not all the candidates are yet enetered anyway.

Just a thought.

TC

[Adelante]

16. He's about 6 points ahead in Iowa, less with combined polls averaged

Not that good all things considered. But I agree anything can happen between now and then.

[calteacherguy]

21. Too late. Damage done. Game over. nt

[Larkspur]

28. Trippi is not Edwards' campaign manager

He's just advising Edwards on Internet usage.

[sandnsea]

32. Since he came on board

Edwards has drifted further to the left, been more agressive in attacking Democrats, and engaged in more of these internet fundraising schemes. He isn't always wrong in what he says or does - it's just that the way they do it is an obvious repeat of Trippi 2003. When's Edwards going to call everybody except him a cockroach?

He needs to fire Trippi. He's having a bad influence on his campaign.

[Adelante]

41. When was Trippi hired?

There were a bad choices made before Trippi, I thought.

[sandnsea]

43. April

I think he made mistakes before Trippi too, I just think the mistakes have just gotten annoyingly worse.

[Adelante]

47. Oh, April, I thought it was more recent

I see what you're saying better then.

[rinsd]

44. That attack on Obama over funding went over like a lead balloon.

Obama just destroyed him on that. I can't believe his staff thought that was a good idea.

[mntleo2]

12. Crumbling?

...I am sorry, but I have been following them all and I have not seen anything "crumbling" but maybe I am just not part of the "in" crowd here.

Cat In Seattle

[jsamuel]

15. no, their not crumbling, before this week Edwards had 4 donations and $200 at DU

Now he has 23 donations and $3000 and counting
http://www.actblue.com/page/du-presidential

[slick8790]

42. Aside from that, check out his total on the actblue site as compared to other candidates.

$3,383,734 (edwards) vs. $976 (hillary) vs. $23,686 (obama) vs. $300,009 (richardson).


I'd hardly say it's crumbling.

[The Count]

14. One more joint stunt with Coulter and...I guess one can fool so many people

only for so long...Not that they'll relent here on DU and accusing anyone who doesn't obey to be RW...I am sure PNAC will find another patsy on this side of the aisle.

[zulchzulu]

18. How is Edwards' campaign "crumbling"?

Yeah...polls...

But the first votes cast are over six months away. Repeat after me. Six months away...

17,366,400 seconds
289,440 minutes
4824 hours
28 weeks (rounded down)

A lot can happen between now and then.

[calteacherguy]

19. I've been thinking about this happening for a long time...

another thing the increasing irrelevancy of Edwards does it does is provide space for a "third way" (no relation to any other third way intended) candidate as an alternative to Clinton or Obama.

[jsamuel]

22. real clear politics is very anti-Edwards

The last two polls in Iowa showing huge leads for Edwards were not included in the averages.

[rinsd]

25. This article is over the top.

While Edwards has hardly had smooth sailing, his camapign is hardly imploding.

"The last two polls in Iowa showing huge leads for Edwards were not included in the averages."

I've seen the Richardson poll, is there anohter out there?

http://www.richardsonforpresident.com/newsroom/pressreleases?id=0139

[jsamuel]

26. yes, here

Strategic Vision

Edwards:29 Clinton:16 Obama:24 Richardson: 9

[rinsd]

30. I think that one was bumped for a more recent Strategic Visions poll

Here's the new one for SV

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/iowa_poll_062707.htm

I know RCP doesn't include the Richardson poll in the average but the new SV is included.

[jsamuel]

34. oh, your right

[K8-EEE]

29. Freepers always link to RealClearPolitics

So I just assume it's crazy...

[rinsd]

31. Their editorial stinks.

But they organize the polls in an easy to use manner.

[Zodiak]

23. I see no indication that Edwards is imploding

I have seen him take an inordinate amount of heat for nothing issues (his hair?..please!)

But I have not seen his support waver amongst his supporters. Sounds to me like another article that puts the cart before the horse.

And no, I am not an Edwards supporter for this primary, but I am a populist.

[Cameron27]

24. Obama should go after Edwards at this point since it

looks like an easy knock-out. I think he's wasting time battling Hillary's strong numbers right now, there's plenty of time to tackle Clinton later.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

27. This meme was laid to rest in this thread

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3343178

[jefferson_dem]

46. Try again?

-->

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3344624

[draft_mario_cuomo]

48. Elections are won by votes, not money

Where did the guy who raised the most money last time finish? ;)

[gasperc]

33. crumbling? You will eat those words

I promise you

[ShortnFiery]

35. Truth is, although I prefer Obama, Edwards is a close second (and to many)

In fact, if Edwards came out STRONG for Impeachment of Gonzo or Darth Cheney, I (and many others) could flip to his side. Easily. :-)

[gasperc]

50. Edwards did very well last night

in my slanted opinion of course. Hillary seemed to be yelling at me, Obama was, as usual, a little to generalized for my tastes but I love his inspirational speaking style(hint fave VP choice), Dodd wanted to be Biden, Biden was clever but no thanks, Kucinich exactly right on NAFTA and WTO but otherwise no thanks, Gravel ok he's getting under my skin now. and Richardson seemed adrift.

[mckeown1128]

36. As a true Obamaite, Obama is my first choice...

but I really like Edwards as well... They should run together.(I'll let everyone argue about whose name should be fist on the ticket) I think they are both needed to combat the DLC candidate.

[mnhtnbb]

37. "Crumbling campaign" is wishful thinking for Hillary & Obama

Edwards has been through this and knows it's a long haul.

His support among activists is extemely strong: see the June
dailykos straw poll where he continues to strengthen his support

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/6/28/04210/9256

NY Times is doing it's best to attack him. Coulter is attacking him.
The corporatists and neocons are clearly afraid of him.

I wouldn't count him out. And I do NOT see his campaign "crumbling".

[K8-EEE]

39. I'm so sick of people telling us who is and is not crumbling....

Just let the candidates speak and let the people decide and stop the constant polling.....it's still early.

[Alexander]

40. First Obama's crumbling, then Edwards...

Seems like an effort to get us all on board the Hillary train.

I'll take a cab, thanks.

[cascadiance]

45. I think if there is any defection from Edwards camp it is most likely going to GORE!

... not Obama or Clinton necessarily...

Gore's had his unrecorded numbers rise to the point of leading in New Hampshire... I think that the biggest overlapping set of voters with Gore is likely Edwards. I'm definitely in that camp!

If Gore decides at the deadline time for filing for primaries not to enter the race, my bet is that the biggest beneficiary in terms of donations and supporters will be Edwards at that point.

[usregimechange]

49. BS "implosion" does not equal being down 4% in national polls

and being ahead over Clinton in early primary states.

[w4rma]

51. Obama slipped about 4% in the most recent national polls. Obama has no traction.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3345470