Edwards counts on Iowa win to nail nomination

[Omaha Steve]

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/politics/4949241.html

Edwards counts on Iowa win to nail nomination
Democratic candidate says victory could lead to "avalanche" of support

By KIM CHIPMAN
Bloomberg News

Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards, seeking to mimic John Kerry's come-from-behind 2004 primary win, is predicting that a victory in the Iowa caucuses will trigger an "avalanche" of support and allow him to clinch the nomination.

"I think my chances are very good," Edwards, 54, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television's Political Capital with Al Hunt, which will air over the weekend.

"Kerry effectively won the nomination in Iowa," said Edwards, a former North Carolina senator. "I would know because I was unfortunately on the receiving end. I was second in Iowa and wasn't able to stop that avalanche. And I think that's very likely to happen again."

Edwards is trailing frontrunners Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama in both fundraising and national surveys. Still, he's very competitive in Iowa polls and is banking on strong voter support in the state's upcoming caucus to give him the momentum needed to win New Hampshire and Nevada, two other key early states.

"His only choice is to win Iowa. If he doesn't win there it's over," said Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster who advised Kerry during his presidential run. "Iowa is the only state in which Edwards is able to compete with the real behemoths of the race — Clinton and Obama."

FULL story at link.

[DeadElephant_ORG]

1. damn... that's not much to count on.

Even if he does win Iowa - which is unlikely - I doubt that would translate into winning the nomination. The process this year with the number of candidates, the shortened primary season, and all the "dark horse" candidates, is so chaotic that it's hard to believe that Iowa will matter as much as in past elections.

[pstans]

2. He is leading pretty much every poll in Iowa

except for ARG, which he is down by 1%.

[jsamuel]

3. actually, its 3 points, but good point

Mason-dixon is the other one, he is down by 1 point there. The others have him leading, some by double digits.

[postulater]

4. The primary system sucks

I live in Wisconsin. There's no chance that my vote will count for anything in the primaries. It'll all be decided by then and I'll be stuck with whoever won in Iowa or New Hampshire or some other state with few people.

Then I'm expected to be happy to vote for whatever Dem in November.

Give me instant runoff elections, all primaries on the same day, and hand-counted paper ballots.

[calteacherguy]

5. You know what they say about putting all your eggs in one basket...

Edwards is not going to be the Democratic nominee. No way.

[levinags]

7. It's Possible

He is doing well in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. If he wins those three states, we could see a three way race.

[calteacherguy]

8. He won't win those three states.

He's putting all his eggs in Iowa, remember? And he's still in a statistical tie there, although he has been campaigning there more and longer than anyone else. What do you think is going to happen when Clinton and Obama start putting even more of their plentiful supply of eggs ($$$) into Iowa and everywhere else on the map?

I'm afraid Edwards has become a little fish...and the big fish are coming.

[levinags]

9. Right

But he is polling well, or at least better, in those three states than he is nation wide. A win in Iowa could give him the extra boost to get past Barack and Hillary in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

[Yukari Yakumo]

10. LOL

New Hampshire--

ARG: Clinton 34%, Obama 25%, Edwards 11%
Rasmussen: Clinton 28%, Obama 21%, Edwards 10%
Suffolk University: Clinton 37%, Obama 19%, Edwards 9%
CNN/WMUR: Clinton 39%, Obama 24%, Edwards 14%

South Carolina--

ARG: Clinton 37%, Edwards 22%, Obama 21%
Mason-Dixon: Obama 34%, Clinton 25%, Edwards 12%

Iowa--

ARG: Clinton 32%, Edwards 29%, Obama 13%
Strategic Vision: Edwards 26%, Obama 21%, Clinton 20%
Mason-Dixon: Clinton 22%, Edwards 21%, Obama 18%

[NI4NI]

6. I'm afraid I would agree with Mr. Mellman

even though I'd hate to see Edwards withdraw; But hasn't he spent more time campaigning in Iowa than everybody else?
And even if he couldn't win, I find it discouraging and real hard to understand why a future spot within the Democratic Party on the national level, or a cabinet post with the Health and Welfare Dept, would not be beneficial to the Party.

Just sayin'!