C-SPAN Political Analyst: Iowans make up their minds in the last week

[rhombus]

Any Iowans want to shed some light on this? I was watching C-SPAN and one of their regular political analysts said that on the Democratic side, most Iowans tend to make up their minds within the last week heading to the Iowas caucuses. He said Iowa polls this early out are not predictive at all of the caucus outcomes, and that we should look out for dark horse candidates like Richardson, Biden and Dodd.

Any thoughts on this?

[illinoisprogressive]

1. I have heard this a few different times. They wait and mull things over.

they like to watch all of them and see where they stand. they may answer where they are leaning one week when the pollsters call but, by no means does it mean a definite support of anyone. Iowa is very hard to predict.

[liberalnurse]

2. They sure do!

They caucus.....it's a festive event to say the least........real community involvement with an Iowa Caucus.

[rhombus]

3. I think the real momentum builder will be New Hampshire

Lots of independents there who tend to make a big statement about what they feel about the direction of the country.

[Frustratedlady]

4. That is absolutely correct.

There are many things that can happen even within a 24-hour period to change ones mind. It drives the campaign workers nuts, as they like to mark their candidate down as your choice.

I just had an Edwards campaigner drop by yesterday. I know he was eager to put a check mark in the Edwards column, but I wouldn't confirm any preference nor indicate who I was leaning toward.

You have to realize that there can be almost daily contact with one or another of the candidates as they crisscross the state. They are in and out of the area on a weekly basis. That's a tough road for them to travel. The weak will fall by the wayside, which is one way of culling the crowd. Look at the number of candidates running...don't forget those standing in the wings, waiting for the right time to pop into the show....most will have to leave the race, so you don't want your choice to be one of them, or you have to start the process all over again. Shoot! They are still selecting DURING the caucus.

One thing Iowans will declare is their party affiliation, and they usually stick to it, although I see a change from the norm with this upcoming election. There can't be much argument that the number of Republicans has dwindled with this administration in charge. I can't even find anyone who will admit they voted for Bush in either election.

It's an interesting process.

[DU9598]

5. Even more so in 2008

Other than friends who are employed with a candidate I do not have one friend who has committed to a candidate. I think Edwards, Clinton, and Obama are all worthy of consideration. One slip up or one defining moment will likely break the race here in the last week or two. Until recently I thought Richardson would be moving up in Iowa, but his performances have not been well-received here. If another person is about to break into the top tier I think it may very well be Dodd.