ARG Illinois: Obama leads Hillary by 4...

[SaveElmer]

Not that impressive if accurate...

Obama leads among Men 41-24, Hillary leads among women 40-33

Obama 37
Hillary 33
Edwards 10
Richardson 4
Biden 1
Clark 1
Dodd 1
Kucinich 1
Gravel <1
Undecided 12

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

[MalloyLiberal]

1. Obama is losing his momentum actually.

24% will likely be changing their vote when their candidate drops out or they are currently 'undecided'.

Obama gained 1% since January. Hillary, 3%. Edwards: 5%.

I'd say Hillary is higher than Obama and Edwards is creeping up to OBama --
Take note ARG is a Repug poll.

[Alamom]

2. Home State? eom

[durrrty libby]

3. So what's the deal? Why is his home state not giving him

big support? I thought he was extremely popular there

[churchofreality]

4. I think people are ascared of losing in 2008. Hillary is looking better by the day

She has been outstanding in every facet of the race so far. I was undecided until I watched the debates. She will win more and more support as this thing goes on. People are confident in her, Obama not so much...

[draft_mario_cuomo]

5. Where are those who constantly made a big deal out of Edwards not leading by 30 points in NC?

;)

Interestingly, the only candidate other than HRC with a solid lead in his/her home state is Richardson. That said, it should be noted that Biden is a down by 13 points in his home state, Dodd is in single digits in CT, and the others are similarly weak in their home states.

[SaveElmer]

8. Well it is interesting Edwards does not do better in his home state...

And I think Hillary has done a far better job of constituent service in New York than either Edwards or Obama have done in their states...

But Edwards does have some built in disadvantages...and that is he is running against one candidate(Hillary) who is extremely popular in the African American community, and another(Obama) who is African American himself, and popular....

In North Carolina African American voters make up a big chunk of Democratic voters...

In Illinois however, I don't think this is the case...that Obama is losing by such a wide margin with women in his home state should be very worrisome to him...

[draft_mario_cuomo]

9. Good points

Another key difference is that Edwards left the senate over two years ago. Due to this, he did not receive nearly as much routine press coverage in NC as incumbent senators HRC and Obama did in NY and IL respectively from 2005-2007. Edwards was essentially off the radar screen for two years.

It is clear HRC will collect New York and New Jersey's treasure trove of delegates on Super Tuesday. NY is obvious and in NJ she benefits not only from a regional advantage but the fact that 2/3 of NJ's population is in the New York television market, most of it gets NYC radio stations, and the New York Times' popularity in the heavily populated part of NJ next to NYC. If she adds Illinois to her haul that would seriously cripple Obama's campaign (assuming he is still competitive by then), since he will need Illinois to mitigate the damage from losing NY/NJ (as Edwards will need NC). If HRC wins NY, NJ, CA, and IL that alone would be enough to sustain her beyond Super Tuesday, even if she somehow lost every other Super Tuesday state.

[demgirlamerica]

6. smart

the people of illinois know obama hasnt had an original thought. illinois is a good dem state so obama will have a seat for life.

[ronnykmarshall]

7. Oh dear .... you're gonna get one of these!

[maximusveritas]

10. This story was alread posted

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3367336

[draft_mario_cuomo]

11. What is your take SE on Edwards leading among independents in Illinois?

1) Edwards 27%
2) HRC 26%
2) Obama 26%
4) Biden 2%
4) Clark 2%

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/ildem8-702.shtml