NH Poll: Hillary 33%, Obama 25%, Edwards 15...Pollster says GOP has shot at NH if Hillary is nominee

[TeamJordan23]

http://www.cmonitor.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070715/REPOSITORY/707150380

In the Democratic primary, 33 percent choose Clinton, the New York senator, while 25 percent pick Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and 15 percent go with former vice presidential nominee John Edwards. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson snags 7 percent in the poll.

Even if they win their primaries, Clinton and Romney each face steep roads, favorability numbers and head-to-head match-ups show.

Pollster Del Ali - whose Research 2000 firm conducted the poll for the Monitor last week - said Romney "just doesn't seem viable" in the general election. Meanwhile, he proclaimed Clinton's primary strength to be the only "silver lining" for Republicans; looking at the numbers, he said, Republicans may be uniquely competitive against her.

On the Democratic side, Clinton wins head-to-head match-ups with all of the poll-topping Republicans, but Obama outpaces her by a point in almost every case. She also has 40 percent of voters rating her unfavorably, the highest rating in her party.

Ali said the only way he can foresee the Republicans taking New Hampshire in the 2008 general election is if Clinton is the nominee.

"If it goes to a general election, I think the only hope the Republicans may have would be against Hillary, because they seem to be more competitive against her than they do against the other top Democrats," Ali said. "The only saving grace for the Republicans is if she's the nominee."

Analysts seemed unable to discuss Clinton without using the descriptives "very polarizing figure" or "divisive." Andy Smith, the director of the University of New Hampshire survey center, said Clinton actually appears to fare better in New Hampshire than elsewhere.

[Poiuyt]

1. I think I would agree with that assessment

[flpoljunkie]

11. No one would unite and energize the Republican party like Hillary Clinton. No one.

[Tellurian]

18. The same ole RW Talking Point.. same old cartoon pic..boring!

Associated Press: "Anyone who thinks his wife can't win because she's a woman or because "she's so polarizing" should remember how polarizing he was when he first ran for president, Clinton said. He said his wife is the target of so much criticism because she is the candidate Republicans most fear in the general election. "They always pick the person they think is the most trouble for them and beat 'em to death as early as they can," he said.

"In Keene, Clinton said electing his wife will restore America's standing in the world "virtually overnight."

We can't same the same for a candidate who will be riding his bike with training wheels for the first term!

[flpoljunkie]

22. Get used to it, Tellurian. It won't be the last time you see liberal Tony Auth's cartoon.

[Tellurian]

27. And Flpoljunkie, It won't be the last time you see this one!

at least this one's the Truth!
\
Yours?" Not so much!

[flpoljunkie]

28. Knock yourself out posting cartoons from a conservative political cartoonist!

[Tellurian]

31. ...

[Maribelle]

21. "Clinton wins head-to-head match-ups with all of the poll-topping Republicans"

Republicans are deathly afraid of Hillary - - most importantly in NH, a once solidly-republican stronghold, because they fear the Republicans in NH are switching to Democrats.


Kerry won NH in 2004.

[flpoljunkie]

23. Republicans are are not only not afraid of Hillary, this is their nightly prayer...

[assclown_bush]

25. I don't make political decisions based on a cartoon...

and I am skeptical of adults who do.

P.S.
Tony Auth is also the "artist" responsible for this little bit of anti~Semitic "humor".



As a Jew I don't find it the least bit "funny".

[struggle4progress]

26. Anti-semitic how? It clearly seems intended to evoke the Israeli flag and comment on Israeli walls

If you object to use of the mogen David as a symbol for Israel, or believe that this creates confusion, perhaps you should launch a campaign to get the Israeli government to stop using it as a marking on military aircraft

http://www.acig.org.nyud.net:8090/artman/uploads/eb04_001.jpg

[NobleCynic]

30. You confuse anti Israeli/Likud with anti-semitic

If you consider any criticism of the Israeli approach with Palestine anti-semitic, then you'll have to consider significant portion of the DU community anti-semitic.

[liberalnurse]

24. Absolutely.

She is the one.

[illinoisprogressive]

2. Alot of polls and experts are saying the same thing. We lose again if...

[Colobo]

3. Gobama!

[padia]

4. and when it comes to breaking the southern block

I don't think hilliary can do it even if "she knows how to speak southern" and was in arkansas for almost 20 years. remember that block turned repug because the haters used black civil rights as a wedge issue and since repugs have drop womens rights added christian theocracy and are belligerently anti gay. that and she is a corporatist hawk. Given the choice of more of the same with a man or a new direction with a woman and I just don't see the south changing, or any other conservative area flipping. and we need 18 electoral votes to win, not giving up any NE votes

[AndyTiedye]

8. It All Comes Down to Ohio

Hillary Clinton cannot pick up any electoral votes in the South. Neither can Barak Obama.

The only state we might pick up with enough electoral votes to matter is Ohio.

[rove karl rove]

9. not even Arkansas?

Ya, Ohio will be critical, seems like it always is. And, you have to hold all those others. I think NH is up for grabs to ANY Democrat, but depends on the GOP person...Romney no, Giuliani, yes.

[AndyTiedye]

10. I Was Already Counting on New Hampshire Because We Won It Last Time

[padia]

29. I like Edwards

if Hillary gets the nomination more than likely I would vote for her. Every time I have heard Obama he is very rousing in his description of the issue but does not bring home the solution. Kucinich seems to be able to articulate his message but does not get much traction. I think Edwards can put the south in play. A southern gentleman claiming the Carolinas as home, Virgina turning in our direction. I also think that the only thing rudy could offer in Texas or Georgia is that he is okay with using broomsticks as interrogation tools. Edwards is also winning with the DU donations and all other spots on the Actblue page by both contributors and $'s at least that is what it was showing before the 2nd qtr closed, he won the Moveon environment vote. Actblue donaters, DU & Moveon people are the people most likely to vote in a primary.

[The Count]

13. Guess what? Ohio was very much won in 2004. As it was Florida (2004, 2000)

So, when you go to past results to extrapolate to the future, use the theft numbers - becayse this is a historical fact too, no matter how silent some candidates are on it.

[calteacherguy]

5. Obama needs to stop using the term "merit pay."

It immediately suggests there is a large group of teachers without merit. Sure, there are a few bad apples in every profession, but that's beside the point. Should police officers get "merit pay" as well? (perhaps so, if their beat is in a rougher neighborhood, but that doesn't mean police officers in the suburbs are without merit). Obama needs to get a deeper understanding of the real problems facing public education.

"Merit pay" is a politically loaded term. He wants to talk to us? That's great.

Just don't blame us.

Right now I'm working on a master's degree in science education. I'm paying for it out of pocket, and I'm doing it because I want to be a better teacher. Irony is, better teaching is likely to result in lower standardized test scores in many cases, because the tests only test memorization of facts, not higher order thinking skills.

How do you like them apples?

[locopolitico]

6. conventional wisdom

The important thing to remember about conventional wisdom is that it is always wrong.

[PBass]

7. In 2004, pollsters said Howard Dean was unelectable, so Kerry became the candidate.

How did that work out, for the Democratic Party?

If you don't like Clinton then more power to you, but don't vote based on what the pundits and pollsters say about electability... pollsters are constatly revising their numbers up until election day, and pundits are usually full of shit.

[Red Zelda]

19. Seriously, though

How many primaries did Dean win? Kerry was the nominee, because Kerry won the primaries.

[The Count]

12. I think the pollster just revealed who commissioned THAT poll - and why

I am no fan of Hillary. But if Gore came first in NH, who really believes they'd rather vote a wormongering GOP-er than her? It doesn't pass the BS test.

[Adelante]

14. Methodology

Research 2000 firm conducted the poll for the Monitor last week... For the primary contests, 400 likely voters in each primary were sampled, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent. The general election results were compiled from 600 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus four percent.

[dsc]

15. Obama does one point better than her in a poll with a MOE of 5

and we are supposed to believe that she would do way worse than he. They are tied.

[democratsin08]

16. hillary

will do just fine. i think she would make mincemeat of guliani. too bad elizabeth edwards isnt running. she is the best!!

[wyldwolf]

17. Like everyone who has made similar claims, the author provides no statistical evidence

If the pollster can show statistical evidence of these poll numbers, why can't he prove his other point? :shrug:

[sellitman]

20. I am not a fan of Hillary or Obama BUT..

From what I sense Obama could grab many more Independent and moderate Repugs votes than Hillary could. This would make him a stronger candidate. Note I didn't say a better choice....just one than could grab some very important votes.