Zogby: Obama does better than Clinton against McCain, Romney and Thompson

[jackbourassa]

Obama 45%
McCain 42%

Obama + 3%

Obama 47%
Romney 35%

Obama + 12%

Obama 48%
Thompson 40%

Obama + 8%

By contrast...

Clinton 45%
McCain 43%

Hillary + 2%

Clinton 48%
Romney 38%

Hillary + 10%

Clinton 47%
Thompson 41%

Hillary + 6%

Hillary and Obama do about the same against Guiliani, both leading.

Obama 46%
Guiliani 42%

Clinton 46%
Guiliani 41%

www.zogby.com/news/Readnews.dbm?ID=1338

[jackbourassa]

1. That's with a 25% disadvantage in name ID

nt

[snowbear]

45. His name is getting around though!

I went to an awesome coffee shop/deli a little while ago in Anchorage, called "New Sagaya" and someone had an Obama '08 poster up near the entryway on a big bulletin board.

That's the first '08 "ANYTHING" I've seen!! Even candidates running for the U.S. Senate, U.S. Congress, etc... don't have signs, bumper stickers etc. up yet.

First 2008 advertisement I've seen in the Land of the Midnight Sun!

[maximusveritas]

49. Where'd you get that number from?

Is it from the Zogby survey?

[youngdem]

2. How is it even possible McCain is up this high, head to head?

Does this just reflect on just how poorly informed most people are? I mean, McCain is a few bad days of fund raising from having to close up shop, but he's the best head to head candidate for the Repukes?

I don't know whether to cry at Democrats' inability to gain traction against a fallen foe or to laugh at the fact that the best the Repukes have is McCain - if he can even raise enough cash to stay in the race.

[jackbourassa]

3. Because people aren't paying attention...

They remember McCain the maverick...not McCain the laughing stock.

[rinsd]

4. Yes, its unfortunate that Obama numbers seem stagnant or down in GE matchups.

While Hillary has made a big move.

[jackbourassa]

5. Well she couldn't do much worse than last time...

...when she actually trailed two of the four.

Way to catch-up Hillary...well, almost.

[Ethelk2044]

47. Obama's numbers will be increasing

[SaveElmer]

6. Pathetic...

Every one in the margin of error...too cowardly to admit you are wrong so start a dishonest thread like this...

Very sad, but typical of the Obamatons on this board...

[jackbourassa]

7. He still does better!

What's so pathetic about that?

[SaveElmer]

9. Because you are either being obtuse..

Or are lying...since I do not like to accuse people of lying...

You do understand what a poll is...and the point of the Margin of Error?

These polls indicate quite clearly that Hillary and Obama are equally as strong against Republican opponents...


And as Zogby made quite clear in his commentary, it his Hillary that has made the dramatic move upward...

[jackbourassa]

11. I understand what the margin of error is...

But it's funny that Obama leads in all but one, which he trails Hillary by one. Which I specified, in the OP.

Otherwise, you'd have to admit that Hillary's lead of 9 to 12 points is not very considerable considering the margin of error in those polls as well.

[SaveElmer]

12. Obviously you don't...

And you will admit it is Hillary not Obama showing a dramatic move upward...would you not?

And why not apologize to the OP in the original thread...since you made a clearly untrue accusation against them

[jackbourassa]

16. Yes she has had a "dramatic shift" as you put it...

But the reason is obvious. It's because her numbers WERE TERRIBLE last time. Obama's numbers are the same because in the last poll he did AS WELL AS HE DID THIS TIME.

In fact, his numbers are so good that, despite her "surge in support," Hillary still hasn't caught up to him.

True or false?

[SaveElmer]

17. False...

Hillary has caught up to him...as you can clearly see in the poll...

And with that surge up goes Obama's electability argument...as does Edwards...

[jackbourassa]

20. Now who's being obtuse?

nt

[SaveElmer]

22. You...

As your lack of understanding of the term MoE quite clearly shows...

[jackbourassa]

24. I understand it perfectly well...

But it doesn't change the fact that Obama is ahead in three of those four polls.

Because MoE works two ways. It means that Obama's advantage over Clinton against the Republicans might be even higher, which would also correspond with the original poll.

But i'll give Hillary the benefit of the doubt and say that she does only slightly worse than Obama at this point.

[SaveElmer]

26. Obviously not...nt

[jackbourassa]

28. Hide behind your little MoE all you like...

Because by doing so you'd have to admit that Obama's lead might be even larger.

[snowbear]

53. Sheesh..

Elmer, when someone else puts up a poll you don't like, you get all upset about the content.

Why not just agree that it's TOO damned early for ANY polls?

[Forkboy]

8. Still a valid poll,MOE or not.

What's dishonest about the thread?

The defensiveness seems more on the pathetic side,especially for someone who posts polls all the time.

"Live by the polls,die by the polls." - Wyldwolf

[SaveElmer]

10. Read the previous thread...

Where this poster accused the OP of lying by omission...when proven wrong, rather than admit their error, post their own thread which distorts the result of the poll...

Fact is Hillary and Obama do equally as well against Republicans...and if you read Zogby's analysis, it is Hillary showing a dramatic move upward...

[Forkboy]

13. I saw the other thread and thought it was a train wreck.

And I'm shocked that anyone here would try to distort something for or against anyone.I'm glad people are on the lookout for that happening!

[jackbourassa]

15. "Hillary and Obama do equally as well against the Republicans"

Except that one is more equal than the other.

[rinsd]

14. This is more about a DU friend trying to protect another

The OP of this thread did their post as some bizarro proof that I was lying in my OP here

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3386086

Mind you my OP said nothing about Obama in any negative fashion until the OP of this thread decided to take a dump on it.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=3386086&mesg_id=3386100

[jackbourassa]

18. I "took a dump on it" because...

you omitted to say that in that same poll, Obama scored higher than Hillary against three of the top four Republican candidates.

That is a fact. Sorry if it offends you. But it doesn't make it any less true.

[rinsd]

25. You called me dishonest and it was completely uncalled for.

I had forgotten to include a link in the OP.

As you should know by now these polls don't format easily on DU so all I grabbed was what was written.

But you want to know the real reason I didn't include what the poll said about Obama.

Here's where they mention Obama. http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1338

Obama’s edge over his prospective Republican rivals remained largely the same as in the May survey.

So why would I include that shit? I also didn't say anything about Edwards, do you think I was trying to hide his results too (mixed bag, improved against McCain and Giuliani and lost to Romeny and Thompson by about the same margins)

The survey shows, in fact, that McCain’s support among moderates and independents across the board has collapsed – this after his failure on the recent immigration reform bill and widespread reports of a campaign prone to mismanagement and fund–raising shortfalls. Not only does McCain now trail Obama and Clinton in the head–to–head match–ups, he has fallen into a 43%–43% tie with Democrat John Edwards, when two months ago he enjoyed a five–point lead against the former North Carolina senator.

[jackbourassa]

36. You are forgiven for not adding the link...

But it doesn't change the fact that Obama does better than Clinton.

[ronnykmarshall]

21. What else is new?

I busted a gut when I saw he started this thread after shitting on yours.

I love the spin on it too.

It's VERY ironic that when Elmer or any other HRC supporter post a poll all hell breaks loose. Yet the OP is using the same tactic.

[jackbourassa]

23. Spin? I thought only the Clintons spun?

I love how the same four or five Clintonistas go on a rampage whenever they see something they don't like.

Personally, I think this is very funny. Four against one. Well done. I know most of the Obama supporters have you guys on ignore. But I wouldn't dare. You guys are a hoot.

Everything in this thread IS TRUE. I'm sorry if it offends the Clinton folk. But it is.

[ronnykmarshall]

27. Oh PLEASE!

Get off the cross, we need the wood.

[rinsd]

29. LOL!

[jackbourassa]

30. Why?

Is the viagra not working anymore?

[ronnykmarshall]

32. What are you 12?

I'm glad to see the Obama is reaching out the grade schoolers.

[jackbourassa]

34. It was as mature are your post...

Thanks for playing.

[ronnykmarshall]

37. Difference was that mine was funny.

[jackbourassa]

38. In your own mind maybe...

To me mine was funnier.

I guess it's all about personal tastes.

For example: you consider dynasties when choosing a candidate. I don't. It's all about personal preferences.

[ronnykmarshall]

39. WOW!! You read my mind!

I was SO into Dynasty back in the 80's!

Wasn't Alexis just a scream?

I love the one when she and Crystal got into that fight in the pond!

And those dresses? Oh. My. God! That hair was SCARY!!

I liked the first Steven better than the second one. How 'bout you, hon?

[jackbourassa]

42. I'm not so sure why you were offended by talk of viagra...

...when your sig line talks about stopping "erections." But then again...

Maybe I just touched on a sore subject with you. I'm sorry if I offended, I truly am.

[ronnykmarshall]

43. Now wasn't that cute?

So tell me hon, is there some sort of training class for Obama supporters to review various dick jokes? Do ya'll have a top 40 to chose from? If so, you might want to hire a better writer. These are pretty 4th grade.

[rinsd]

31. The best thing is that this joker swears polls mean absolutely nothing.

[jackbourassa]

33. No.

The best thing is that you jokers swear that it does. Unless it's unfavorable to her royal highness.

[ronnykmarshall]

35. I know, right?

Now he's forced to use school yard insults. My goodness, you think that Short n Fiery might come to my defence? You know how she HATES personal insults. I'm sure she would like an Obama supporter to act so HORRIBLE!!!

And no, I'm not holding my breath.

[Perry Logan]

19. Zogby's polls have a way of favoring the people who paid for the poll.

[wyldwolf]

41. so this poll was paid by Obama?

The OP says the poll favors Obama.

[jackbourassa]

40. Has it occured to you people harping about the MoE...

That these numbers came from THE SAME SAMPLE OF PEOPLE BEING SURVEYED? It's not like it came from two different polls, it came from the same poll.

Which means that Zogby randomly selected 1,000+ people and when put up against the top four Republican candidates, some people prefered Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton against the Republican candidates.

Discredit the poll if you like. But those were the findings.

[ronnykmarshall]

44. "you people"

Now this is getting very interesting.

[jackbourassa]

51. I'm not sure what you mean...

"You people" as in those of "YOU" who are harping about the margin of error.

[zulchzulu]

50. Poll description

"The poll, conducted July 12–14, 2007, included 1,012 likely voters nationwide, and carries a margin of error of +/– 3.1 percentage points."

That's a decent sample size and MoE.

[David Zephyr]

46. Obama is connecting with the American people. They like him.

Americans like him and so do I.

[zulchzulu]

48. I think we can take the word "McCain" out of any polling data now

Someone waved a piece of toast at him and said its name was "Crazy Johnny". Buh-bye, John.

[jackbourassa]

52. Obama now trails Hillary by 7% according to Rassmussen.

I wonder what the MoE is there?