Why the Republicans Can't Win

[Perry Logan]

I thought you would enjoy that title. I want my friends to be happy.

But I'm not kidding. The Republicans are fried, and they know it. You can tell just by looking at them.

Do you recall the eerie confidence the neocons displayed before the 2000 and 2004 Presidential elections? The polls showed America was turning against them, and yet they were creepily serene.

Look at them now, and you will see none of that confidence. The Republicans are clearly changing their underwear on an hourly basis these days.

This suggests the neocon nightmare might truly be over.

More concretely, I believe the Republican machine is shattered at the state level--and that's probably where the vote-rigging occurs.

I would think most of the chicanery by which Republicans bugger their way into power occurs at the state level, by state operatives. Please correct me if I'm wrong on this.

As we all know, the sordid Republican bag of tricks includes gerrymandering, purging voter roles, intimidating voters, challenging voters (an old Klan trick), defrauding and conning prospective Democratic voters, denying sufficient voting machines to Democratic precincts...

...and, of course, the voting machines that turn up the Republican candidate's name no matter what button is pushed.

Most if not all of these activities occur mostly at the state level, wouldn't you think? If elections were rigged by pushing a button at the White House, we'd still have a Republican Congress.

But Republicans lost out BIGTIME at the state level in the 2006 elections. The Democratic advantage over Republicans in state legislatures went from 15 seats (3,650 versus 3,635) to 662 seats (3,985 versus 3,323), with gains in every region." Democrats control both chambers in 24 states, compared with 14 for Republicans. They also gained six governorships, giving them a majority of 28.

David Sirota writes, "The West is now dominated by Democratic governors. And in many places, state Republican parties are decimated. In Montana, for example, the state's largest newspaper has declared the GOP is "reeling" and in need of a "repair job"....Similarly, in Colorado, Wadhams - the self-trumpeted political guru - is actually conceding that there's probably no chance for him to actually succeed in the 2008 legislative elections."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-sirota/rocky-mountain-right-re...

In short, the humiliation of the Republicans in 2006 changed everything. The Federal government might look only modestly different. But the revulsion against all things Republican hit them hard at the state level.

I know these guys are diligent and resourceful cheaters, and I'm sure they'll continue to do all they can to make sure the voters don't get what they want in 2008. And they still have the media in their pocket, which is a mighty powerful club.

But I'm truly hopeful that the Republican cheating machine got shattered at the state level. They don't have anywhere near as many partisan secretaries of state and crooked precincts. Voting-rights activists all over the country have done much to stem the tide of Republican-friendly voting machines. They can't use the power of state governments to throw another one. That's the theory.

Hence the cheery title. I think their machine is broken—and if they can't cheat, they can't win. They know this. You can see it in their little piggy faces. Have a nice day.

[AndyA]

1. I hope you're right.

They do seem to have lost some of their arrogance, and a lot of them have turned into cry babies, whining about how those mean liberals won't let them pull their shit anymore.

Well, too frickin' bad, ass wipes.

I still wonder what they have up their sleeve, though. Only when KKKarl Rove is stripped naked and a thorough body cavity search has been performed will I believe he isn't hiding anything.

[screembloodymurder]

2. Why it doesn't matter.

Both parties are controlled by the same money and it ain't ours. There's not one viable candidate that really works for us?

[Perry Logan]

4. Corporate media meme alert!

[CrispyQ]

8. Yeah, when David Sirota writes that the west is turning blue,

I think of the Salazar brothers. Ken votes democratic about 30% of the time. He confirmed Rice & Gonzo. John's not my rep, but I agree with the sentiment expressed here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=142x6268

Yeah, we're going blue, alright. :eyes:

[FormerDittoHead]

17. There's no question, IMO, that the Dem's are better, however...

I will agree that there are major problems that remain untouched.

Right wing dominance of talk radio disproportionate of their communities and the ever reducing number of large corporate owners of larger media channels. What people think is a product of the input.

The ongoing necessity of politicians needing large amounts of money to run for office, 99% due to the cost of broadcast advertising.

The continued life of the fantastic (as in fantasy) "libertarian" myths of flat/fair taxes, next-to-no government being possible or desirable, "rugged individualism" made this country great, racism no longer existing, regulations are bad for society, trial lawyers are bad, etc etc etc...

The continued threat of the co-mingling of religious institutions and government.

and so on.

The bottom line is that we've got a LOT of work to do - a LOT of minds to change...

FORTUNATELY, we have truth and reality on our side....

[unpossibles]

18. I take it you'll be running for office yourself then?

or doing something else to change that situation?

[zeemike]

3. I'll play devils advocate here

And I must say I hope that I am totally full of shit.
But here is how the rethugs could win in 08.
HRC gets the nod from our party and is poised to be the first woman president.
But a surprise entry in the rethugs race is Colin Powell who is nominated by the rethugs with a promise to change and win the war on terra.
With HRCs high negatives the race is too close to call according to the press with perhaps a slight le-ed by HRC.
And bingo...it is 2004 all over again.

There has been no change at the local level that would prevent the theft of an election. If you go down to the local voter office most likely you will see the same people there. And the man that has the keys to the wheelhouse where the voting machines are kept is still there, and so fixing the election is just as likely as it was in 04

[Perry Logan]

5. Then why did the Repugs bite it in 2006?

[zeemike]

6. They tried

But stealing the election is only passable on this scale if the election is close.
In 06 there was a massive turnout for Democrats that made it difficult for most of them to curb or cage the vote.

[Perry Logan]

9. I don't believe Bush vs. Kerry was close.

And keep in mind, voting-rights groups have been very active nationwide. The game has changed. These guys are being watched.

[zeemike]

12. The game has changed but not the way we count the vote

And as long as you have a computer count the vote it is passable for just one individual to make that computer say what they want.

[unpossibles]

19. in my opinion, they tried

but two things slowed them down:

1 - it's almost certainly harder to fix a lot of state and local races versus one nation-wide race where you can pad votes here and there to make it look less suspicious.

2 - I think they did cheat, but were not prepared for the turnout the way they were in '04, so they did not flip enough votes to win across the board, although there were spots where they were successful.

I have voted in every election in Columbus, and the crowds I saw at the polling stations were WAY more than I have ever seen in my life. I personally feel that they expected the high turn out and simply discarded many votes. hell, I knew quite a few conservatives who voted against Bush in '04, and it was rare to hear anyone support him. I think voter turn out was better than reported, but don't know that for sure. It is one of several things which made me question the election, and the more I found out, the more I questioned it.

[TwilightGardener]

20. Don't see that happening, with Powell. The Repubs like him about as

much as they like Hagel. And he is damaged goods to BOTH parties. More likely Newt will get in, but he'll lose.

[Perry Logan]

7. If they couldn't swing it when they were in power, they absolutely can't do it now.

They are even losing their "degenerate white guy" base.

[zeemike]

10. Well I hope you are right

But if you see the media tell us that the race will be close then stand by to get shafted again.

[Perry Logan]

11. Avoid the media. They always fake the stats to make it look close.

For the obvious reason that it makes the flip seem believable.

[Bitwit1234]

13. I would still love, above any thing else.

to see bush, cheney and rove peeping out between jail house bars. Wouldn't all of you....Heaven,,,,I'd be in Heaven.

[Rydz777]

14. Good commentary (because I happen to agree with it.) If you

look at the electoral map the Democratic Party is in the ascendancy in the major population centers, and increasingly in the wide open spaces as well. I think we are returning to the conditions of the post-New Deal era when Democrats ran everything for a generation. The Republicans will be marginalized, and then the contest will be within the Democratric Party between its own left and right wings.

"It's the economy, stupid" or maybe it's the stupid economy in which working people up through and including the middle class are increasingly hard pressed while the financial elite rake in the profits of globalization. It's, of course, also the war, mismanagement, corruption, and arrogant incompetence, but as Brecht wrote in the thirties, people first worry about bread, and then comes the rest of it.

[Bravo Zulu]

15. Why the Republicans Can't Win

is it a slam dunk for the Democrats?

[Perry Logan]

16. Check it out: today's young voters are the most Democratic generation in U.S. history.