Obama's Team Not Happy With The CNN/ORC

[Ethelk2044]

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2007/07/obamas_team_not_happy_with_the.php

20 Jul 2007 12:55 pm

This is not a good South Carolina poll for Sen. Barack Obama, and his advisers are already beginning to push back a little.

"First, this poll is clearly an outlier from all the other public polls in SC," an adviser tells me.

Second, whites make up 53% percent of the sample, which is "just wrong," the adviser said. "Blacks make up a slight plurality." And the pollster "has such small samples here that your margin of error is really large on groups that make up roughly 50% of the electorate."

Obviously, the voter screen is important too. Primary turnout is generally about 15% of the eligible adult population. CNN interviewed 1,052 adults and filtered a sample of about 380 of them.



The adviser wouldn't say whether Obama's private South Carolina polling conflicts with the public poll, but, well, given the push back, I'd say that it does.

[blm]

1. This is very weird -

the graphs of Carolinas polling happen to be a current topic in the newsroom down here. They are showing completely different numbers, including the money race from Carolina donors.

[SaveElmer]

2. Hillary polls better among Black voters than white...

Wouldn't a higher percentage of blacks in the survey simply increase her lead?

[Ethelk2044]

6. If that is what you want to believe. Like they said the poll on CNN is wrong

There have been several polls in SC and she was not ahead. The only polls she is ahead is CNN for SC and you wonder why?

:shrug:

[SaveElmer]

10. That is incorrect...

Both her and Obama have been ahead in various polls...

Just because the Obama camp is bawling over this one does not make it incorrect...if I was down 16 I'd be bawling too...

[rinsd]

18. Why are you incapable of honesty? Christ this shit is easy veirifed

"The only polls she is ahead is CNN for SC"

Yeah except for 5 other polling firms...:eyes:

American Res. Group 06/26 - 06/30 600 LV 37 21 22 -- Clinton +15.0
Mason-Dixon 06/13 - 06/15 329 LV 25 34 12 2 Obama +9.0
Winthrop Univ. 05/16 - 05/27 RV 29 21 11 -- Clinton +8.0
American Res. Group 05/23 - 05/26 600 LV 34 18 30 -- Clinton +4.0
Insider Advantage 05/08 - 05/09 500 LV 27 31 16 -- Obama +4.0
American Res. Group 04/27 - 04/30 600 LV 36 24 18 -- Clinton +12.0
Hamilton Beattie (D) 04/14 - 04/19 400 LV 31 27 16 -- Clinton +4.0
Zogby 04/16 - 04/17 503 LV 33 26 21 -- Clinton +7.0
Garin Hart Yang (D) 04/09 - 04/12 801 LV 31 28 21 -- Clinton +3.0
Insider Advantage 04/06 - 04/08 500 RV 20 34 17 -- Obama +14.0
American Res. Group 02/23 - 02/27 600 LV 36 25 20 -- Clinton +11.0

[rinsd]

9. Probably though I find the poll flawed.

Its a small sample, the MOE is 5 and they oversampled white people in a state where African Americans make up about 40% of the primary voters.

Of course Team Smear-4-Obama is on the case.

[SaveElmer]

14. Well assume the MoE adds 5 to Obama and subtracts 5 from Hillary...

Wouldn't Hillary still be up 6...

[TeamJordan23]

19. With a 8% margin of error. Very high margin. nt

[illinoisprogressive]

3. most SC polls I've seen has Obama ahead. But, Cnn gets their done by Gupta's co.

that guy who gives millions to the clintons. opinion research

[rinsd]

5. "most SC polls I've seen has Obama ahead" Actually most have Hillary ahead.

But way to work the smear in there.

[SaveElmer]

8. It's pointless asking your for evidence...but answer this...

Since you are clearly implying Hillary through a supporter is manipulating polling data...the typical guilt by association scenario so beloved here...

Do you think because one of Obama's biggest supporters and past mentor is Tony Rezko, that Obama is by inference therefore a slum lord?

[eweaver155]

12. Ask Hillary - She has become close with Rezko Friend

She threw a fundraiser for Hillary. I am quite sure Hillary will be able answer your question.

[SaveElmer]

16. So then it is ok in your view to assume...

Obama is a slum lord...

Thanks for clearing that up

[rinsd]

4. The SoCarolina polls have been all over the freaking place.

Here's the 6 polls taken since May...they're a mess in terms of trying to look for trends.

CNN 07/16 - 07/18 380 LV 39 25 15 10 Clinton +14.0
American Res. Group 06/26 - 06/30 600 LV 37 21 22 -- Clinton +15.0
Mason-Dixon 06/13 - 06/15 329 LV 25 34 12 2 Obama +9.0
Winthrop Univ. 05/16 - 05/27 RV 29 21 11 -- Clinton +8.0
American Res. Group 05/23 - 05/26 600 LV 34 18 30 -- Clinton +4.0
Insider Advantage 05/08 - 05/09 500 LV 27 31 16 -- Obama +4.0

[Ethelk2044]

7. Gupta doing well for Hillary

[rinsd]

13. Team Smear-4-Obama on the case!

[SaveElmer]

21. The Smear-4-Obama crews reaction to bad news...

[Ethelk2044]

22. No smear they have evidence to prove otherwise.

They do not need to prove anything to you.

[SaveElmer]

23. And that evidence is?...nt

[rinsd]

24. I wasn;t talking about the campaign, I was talking about supporters here on DU

[draft_mario_cuomo]

11. Isn't it odd for a campaign to react this way to a poll 6 months prior to the primary?

It seems being seen as the front-runner in a state outside of Illinois is vital to the "Obama juggernaut." ;)

[eweaver155]

17. No, it is not odd, he they have evidence to the contrary

It leaves them to believe the poll is rigged.

[rinsd]

20. I'm not so sure,

It would depend on who called whom, etc.

[MannyGoldstein]

15. Polls At This Point Predict Nothing. Nada.

Bupkes.

Zilch.

Totally uncorrelated with outcome.

[illinoisprogressive]

25. there have been questions regarding Opinion Research doing polls for CNN

[illinoisprogressive]

26. And, I wouldn't talk about smears with Hillaryis44 floating around

[rinsd]

27. Ambiner posted an update

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2007/07/yet_more_on_that_south_carolin_1.php

A veteran observer of Democratic politics points out:

** Four of the last six polls gave Sen. Hillary Clinton a lead of at least 15 points in SC.
** If you increase the percentage of black voters in the sample, since Clinton has a bigger lead among blacks than among whites, her margin would be greater.
** The 2004 exit poll shows that whites made up about 51% of the Democratic primary electorate.

Recent SC polling I've found:

This latest one, with HRC at 43%, Obama at 27%, Edwards at 17%.

ARG polled June 26-30 and had Hillary at 37%, Edwards at 22 percent and Obama at 21%.

Mason Dixon, which polled from June 13 to June 15, had Obama with a 9 point lead over Clinton, 34% to 25%.

A May 31 PPP poll gave Obama a lead within the margin of error.

And a May 16 Winthrop/ETV poll gave Clinton an eight point lead over Obama.

ARG's May sample gave Clinton a 16 point lead over Obama, with Edwards in second place.

[SaveElmer]

28. Looks like he was reading this thread...

These are practically verbatim what we posted here...

[rinsd]

30. And the commentators also dutifully reported the "gupta" smear.

[Ethelk2044]

29. Here is a comment from the website. It was just added

However, we've already had a few folks chime in to remind us that the owner of Opinion Research is none other than InfoUSA, which is owned by Clinton supporter Vinod Gupta. And the Obama campaign says they're laughing at these results. "Our grassroots effort in South Carolina is moving at a historic pace. We couldn’t feel better about the energy and enthusiasm for Obama in the Palmetto State," a spokesman tells First Read.

From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark Murray