Washington Post-ABC Poll: Clinton 45% and Obama 30%

[Karmadillo]

Includes leaners and assumes Al Gore not in the race. If Gore is included, the results are Clinton 39%, Obama 28%, Gore 14%.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_072307.html

<edit>

28. (ASKED OF GORE SUPPORTERS) If Gore does not run, for whom would you vote?


NET LEANED VOTE IF NO GORE

7/21/07 6/1/07 4/15/07 2/25/07
Hillary Clinton 45 42 41 43
Barack Obama 30 27 25 27
John Edwards 12 11 17 14
Bill Richardson 3 2 3 3
Joe Biden 2 2 2 2
Chris Dodd 1 1 * *
Dennis Kucinich 1 2 1 *
Mike Gravel 0 * * *
Wesley Clark NA NA 1 *
Tom Vilsack NA NA NA *
Other (vol.) 1 * * *
None of these (vol.) 2 4 3 4
Would not vote (vol.) 2 1 1 1
No opinion 2 6 5 4

<edit>

[CoffeeCat]

1. So, we're supposed to believe that...

HALF of the Gore supporters--who are most likely VERY progressive and tired of
DC, corporatist insiders running the show---would vote for Hillary if Gore did not run????

That does not sound right, at all.

If you want Gore--you're tired of corporatism and corruption and you want the Iraq war to end now.
You're also disgusted with leaders who've barely uttered a word about BushCo dismantling the
Constitution and destroying our civil right and our democracy.

If Gore supporters don't get their man--I just can't imagine that HALF of those would-be-Gore supporters
running to Hillary.

That doesn't make sense to me.

[JI7]

2. a lot of Gore supporters are probably supporting him for experience

which is why they move to Hillary if he is out of the race as she is seen as having the most experienced(at least out of the top candidates).

[William769]

3. Maybe t's because your not thinking correctly. NT

[CoffeeCat]

4. I'm all ears...

...sweetheart, if you want to explain how my
thinking is flawed.

[flpoljunkie]

10. Encouraging 51% "Leaned Dems" prefer "new direction and new ideas" to 41% "strength and experience."

And, it is Democrats who mostly vote in the Democratic primaries--except in those states who allow independents, like New Hampshire.

38. Which of these is more important to you in a candidate for president: (strength and experience) or (a new direction and new ideas)?

Strength and New direction Both Neither No
experience and new ideas (vol.) (vol.) opin.
7/21/07 All 50 41 6 * 2
Leaned Democrats 42 51 6 1 1

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_072307.html

[flpoljunkie]

11. HRC has her biggest leads among low-income,low-educated-not the most reliable voters & conservatives

Clinton has her biggest leads among low-income and low-education groups — not the most reliable voters — and conservatives — not a big group in the Democratic Party. But she also leads particularly among mainline Democrats, 50 percent to 31 percent, as opposed to Democratic-leaning independents; and among seniors, who do tend to turn out.

Obama is much more competitive among independents who lean Democratic, a group that can be difficult to get to the polls in primaries — with the notable exception of the New Hampshire primary.

http://abcnews.go.com/US/Story?id=3402767&page=3

[jillan]

5. You know what I heard today? Guess how many people

watched the last Dem Debate?

1.6 million people.

1.6 million people out of 300 million + people.

These polls don't mean a thing.

[illinoisprogressive]

6. but you don't print with Gore: 39, 28. obama is gaining

[William769]

7. With Gore Obama loses not gains. Read the OP. NT

[Ethelk2044]

8. Correction William

Even with Gore in the Race Obama is gaining. He has moved up from 23 to 28 in the last month

7/21/07 6/1/07 4/15/07 2/25/07 1/19/07 12/11/06
Hillary Clinton 39 35 37 36 41 39
Barack Obama 28 23 20 24 17 17
Al Gore 14 17 17 14 10 10

[William769]

9. I stand corrected

I misread question 27 & 28.

[SaveElmer]

14. Sure sign of a campaign that is behind...hoping for the entry of another candidate...

To help them out...

It is pretty clear Obama is not making any headway on Hillary on his own, so supporters seem to be hoping against hope that Gore gets in...

At least that way he will only be behind by low double digits....

[flpoljunkie]

12. ABC:Challenge for Clinton is that new direction, new ideas trumps strong leadership, experience

Experience Trumps for Clinton; 'New Direction' Keeps Obama Going
Poll Shows Strengthening of Support for Clinton and Obama

ANALYSIS by GARY LANGER
July 23, 2007 —

A steady hand outscores a fresh face in uncertain times, much to the benefit of Hillary Clinton in the Democratic race for president. But demand for a new direction is strong, nonetheless a lurking threat to her front-running candidacy.

Clinton and Barack Obama are tied for support among Democrats who chiefly seek "a new direction and new ideas" in the nation's leadership. By contrast, she trounces him by more than 30 points among those looking more for strength and experience, maintaining the overall advantage she's held all year in ABC News/Washington Post polls.

The challenge for Clinton is that a new direction and new ideas are actually more valued than strong leadership and experience  by 51 percent to 42 percent  among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents.

That means Clinton's strongest cards are in a weaker suit; if Obama were able either to challenge her on strength and experience, or more likely  better capitalize on his "new direction" image, the contest could tighten.

http://abcnews.go.com/print?id=3402767

(Do you suppose this is why Hillary has now resorted to Bush-like banners--remember "Reformer with Results." Compare to HRC's "READY for Change. Ready to LEAD" banners--showing up this month in Iowa and New Hampshire--with Bill, at her side--perhaps not a good way to send the particular message--"Ready for CHANGE.")

[illinoisprogressive]

13. look! Obama went up 5 points to clinton's 2. He is going up and up

[SaveElmer]

15. Incorrect...

The last WP poll had the exact same margin without Gore...15%

With Gore, he gained 1%...

[BigDDem]

16. Look, Hillary leads Obama by double digits!

STILL!