Poll Shows Clinton With Solid Lead Among Democrats (no kissing up, BO supporters!)

[Tellurian]

By a wide margin, Democrats view Sen. Hillary Clinton (N.Y.) as the party's candidate best positioned to win the general election, and she holds a double-digit lead over Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) in the race for the nomination, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News Poll. How competitive the Democratic contest becomes could turn on the question of whether voters are significantly more interested in a fresh face or in a candidate they see as projecting strong leadership.

Clinton enjoys a substantial edge over Obama among the 4 in 10 Democrats who said that in assessing presidential candidates, strength and experience are more important than new ideas or a new direction. Even among the 51 percent who prefer a change-oriented candidate, the core message of Obama's campaign, Clinton runs even with him.

It may be equally important that Clinton's initial support for the Iraq war is not proving a significant impediment to her bid. Clinton has drawn criticism this year for refusing to apologize for her 2002 vote authorizing the use of force, but the poll shows her leading among Democrats who support a deadline for withdrawing U.S. forces as well as those who oppose a deadline. She has a 51 percent to 29 percent lead over Obama among those in favor of a complete, immediate withdrawal.

Obama has sought to make his initial opposition to the war an asset in his campaign, but Clinton has become increasingly vocal in criticizing President Bush's management of the war and now supports a timetable for the start of troop withdrawals.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/22/AR2007072201135_pf.html

...Although it is only July, Americans are paying closer attention to this presidential race than they have to past contests. Seventy percent of those surveyed are following the election very or somewhat closely. But far fewer are watching the televised debates. Seventy-three percent have not tuned in to any of the debates, with about half of those who have skipped watching saying it is simply too early in the campaign.

The poll was conducted July 18-21 among a random national sample of 1,125 adults. The results from the full poll have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points; it is four percentage points among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents.....

[jgraz]

1. OMFG!!! We might as well not even hold the primaries!

Let's just have the coronation right now. What do I care? I've got health insurance.

[Tellurian]

4. 22 pts over Obama...Woooow-Weee!

yep, Obama's doin great!

If you insist!

[jgraz]

9. I personally don't care how Obama's doing

I'm just turned off by the crassness of the Hillary supporters on this board. You'd better hope your little Rethug-lite candidate gets elected, or you're gonna be subjected to quite a few in-your-face posts come next spring.

[Tellurian]

29. Is that a parrot in your avatar..

I never would have guessed. Heres a little something for Polly!

[durrrty libby]

34. ...

:rofl:

[laugle]

39. Whoa.......why so

nasty.....I wouldn't have expected that from someone in Berkeley.

They were always such thoughtful, open people, but that was the sixties......long gone, I guess....

[jgraz]

43. What's nasty is the thought of this corporate tool representing my party

Berkeley is not Hillary country, trust me. I'll be surprised if she gets 10% of the primary vote in this town.

[DemBones DemBones]

23. . . .

:rofl:

Yeah, what the hell, vote for Hillary, folks, I've got health insurance.

Besides, it's always fun to say "Told you so!"

[depakid]

2. Well, what else would anyone expect to hear from the Post!

Honest analysis. LOL.

[Morereason]

93. Not a poll of likely primary voters. Not even likely voters. Doesn't mean much..................

[Tellurian]

3. Note the MOE +-3%..

So who are the exodies?

Hillary has a 22% lead over Obama!

[sandnsea]

5. lol, they're watching the polls

70% are following the election, but 73% haven't watched a single debate?? What are they paying attention to? Oh yeah, polls and pundits reciting polls. This is hysterical and really doesn't mean anything.

[Tellurian]

40. We found a Hillary supporter

willing to share her cotton candy with you even though you don't believe!

Enjoy!

[jgraz]

53. Whoa -- lay off on the candy little girl!

If Hillary's president you won't have dental coverage! You don't want to end up like this kid:

http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/166483/12_yearold_dies_from_lack_of_dental.html

[ncabot22]

77. LOL

Great response and great article! Thanks.

[flyarm]

6. very hard for me to believe in fact impossible for me to believe!!

lol..i was at dem fundraiser saturday and only two people i talked to out of 400 there said they wanted her..

lol..this is a joke right????????

lol

oh and that was in NJ!!

fly

[Diane R]

7. She's not ahead. They're not polling younger people with cell phones.

Those kids are solidly behind Obama.

[rinsd]

11. "not polling younger people with cell phone". They are statistically insignificant

"Those kids are solidly behind Obama."

They could be 100% behind Obama and they wouldn't make a difference in the polls.

18-29 was close to 10% of the electorate in the primaries which was widely reagtrded as huge turnout for them.

Though polling orgs are working on dealing with the cell phone vs landline conudrum

[ElizabethDC]

18. He has a lot of support among younger people, but so does Hillary

I know that from the fact that I'm one of these "kids" and I talk to a lot of other people in my age group about who they're supporting. (Also, I think there was a poll at some point that showed that Hillary and Barack had similar levels of youth support.)

But you also have to remember that there usually isn't a huge turn out of young people at the polls, especially during the primary.

[MannyGoldstein]

8. President Lieberman Says: Polls This Early Are Meaningful!!!

I believe that Lieberman was in the lead at this point in the 2004 race.

[Name removed]

10. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Tellurian]

49. I think you know it's nojoe-mentum..

at least from here..

c'mon, jgraz...what the parrot's name?

[rinsd]

14. Get your reheated memes here! Lieberman had a 2 pt lead with everyone bunched up behind him

[MannyGoldstein]

36. At One Point, Dean Was Up 20 Points Over Kerry

It's purely name recognition this early in the game.

[rinsd]

38. Well at least that's a new version of the meme.

;-)

[jgraz]

54. And one that happens to be true

Get back to me if she's still ahead in january.

[Tellurian]

17. Good to see you Manny...

The Clinton supporters have agreed to gloat for 1 hr...

So you'll have to excuse us from not addressing er...hm certain comments..

By all means make yourself comfortable in the big easy chair near Hillary's picture by the window.

And help yourself to the horderves and avocado and spinach dip.

[zulchzulu]

82. President Gephardt and Muskie agree with you too!

Ah yes...name recognition polls six months from when the first votes are cast.... it's over! Done! Move along! And jus' give up, all y'all with crazy idears 'bout other candidates... da choice is done made.

:crazy:

[TeamJordan23]

12. This poll was already discussed a couple days ago. Love to recycle posts, huh? nm

[rinsd]

15. Better than hit and run from Team Smear-4-Obama

[Tellurian]

44. Hey, do we know how to throw a Party..

or what?

[durrrty libby]

13. She is doing very well. I love it

[Alamom]

21. Yes, she is doing extremely well. Very exciting. nm

[rodeodance]

26. i am ok with it.

[EndElectoral]

16. Really surprising...I've talked to no one voting for her.

[Tellurian]

20. Well, that makes sense...

not...I wonder if Obama is skewing the polls, having a little fun at Hillary's expense?

[peacebird]

19. my - she is polling well. Quite suprisingly well since I know NO ONE who wants her

Not one Dem I know personally wants her. No one at my work, no one among my hard core Dem relatives, none of my friends. But she has SOLID SUPPORT obviously - the polls tell me so.

:eyes:

[ElizabethDC]

22. The majority of Dems I know are supporting Hillary

although I know supporters of all candidates except for Kucinich and Gravel. I guest it all just depends on who you know. :shrug:

[rinsd]

25. Its a silly argument.

Good to see you around though.

:hi:

[ElizabethDC]

33. Why thank you

I've been mostly MIA from DU for the past few weeks, as I've been abroad and haven't had much time to spend in front of the computer. I return to the U.S. this Saturday, though, so you'll be seeing a lot more of me in these parts!


:hi:

[Alamom]

28. Same here and she has a long list of endorsements across the country. She has supporters,

even though a few here don't know any...........

[rinsd]

24. That's 3 so far in this thread making that silly argument.

I know few who knows who he is let alone support Joe Biden but I do not doubt he has supporters.

I have yet to meet a live Kucinich supporter yet I do not doubt that he has supporters.

So why do DUers repeat this silly argument with with a well known and popular Democrat?

[peacebird]

64. ok - assuming some dems like her she STILL has the pure hatred of Repubs. She is their Dream Dem

because their base will come out in force to defeat her.

Will progressive Dems come out in force to elect her? I just don't believe that enough of us who dislike her will hold our noses and pull the lever for her - I am not sure I would be able to stomach such a vote personally EVEN if the other option is letting repukes win.

I am finding the intense nastiness of the HRC coronation crowd and the Obama crowd both to be highly offputting.

I do not enjoy DU these days. The only thing to do aside from blocking the "rah-rah MY CANDIDATES SHIT DON'T STINK AND YOURS IS A TOTAL BACKWASH LYING SCUM" bitchslappers on both sides is to read the news and ignore all else here for a while.

[mod mom]

27. Like the DoJ, Boards of Elections and Corporate Media-the pollsters have been infilitrated

the Republicans want Hillary as the nominee so they can steal another election and blame it on HRC devisiveness.

Here's an example:
Fritz Wenzel (of T.Blade + Coingate fame) Now Working for Zogby



Saving Ohio

Did a reporter with GOP ties suppress a story that could have cost Bush the White House?

By Bill Frogameni

Pages 1 2


October 6, 2005 | In April 2005, the Blade newspaper of Toledo, Ohio, began publishing a remarkable series of articles about a well-connected Republican donor, Tom Noe, chair of the Bush-Cheney 2004 campaign for Lucas County, which encompasses Toledo. The Blade, which had won a Pulitzer Prize for reporting in 2004, discovered that Noe, a Toledo coin dealer, was investing $50 million for the state through the novel practice of coin speculation: buying and selling rare coins to turn a profit. Noe, the Blade revealed, could not account for $10 million to $13 million in the fund.

The paper also divulged that Noe had been placed under federal investigation for allegedly laundering money -- perhaps state money -- to the Bush campaign. The Blade's initial reports on Noe started a chain reaction of related scandals for Ohio's dominant Republicans. Recently, Gov. Bob Taft pleaded no contest to accepting several gifts from influence peddlers -- including Noe -- without reporting them, as law requires. Noe is currently the subject of 13 investigations.

In November 2004, Lucas County was among the most hotly contested areas in the most hotly contested state. Kerry won the county by 45,000 votes, but George W. Bush went on to win Ohio by less than 120,000 votes, which swung the election for him.


But Bush's reelection may have been made possible by a Blade reporter with close ties to the Republican Party who reportedly knew about Noe's potential campaign violations in early 2004 but suppressed the story.

According to several knowledgeable sources, the Blade's chief political columnist, Fritz Wenzel, was told of Noe's potential campaign violations as early as January 2004. But according to Blade editors, Wenzel never gave the paper the all-important tip in early 2004.



-SNIP
http://dir.salon.com/story/news/feature/2005/10/06/ohio/index.html



Zogby International spokesman Fritz Wenzel said that was the case in July when Syracuse Post-Standard reporter Glenn Coin wrote a story about Vice President Cheney’s visit to Utica for a fundraiser for Meier. Wenzel was quoted extensively in the article.

http://www.zogby.com/soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=13587



However, as it turns out, both Wenzel and his son had personal relationships with the Noes, who even attended the son's wedding.

In fact, in March 2004, a couple of months after Wenzel got the tip, his son was elected to the Lucas County Republican Central Committee, and from April 15, 2005, to the end of May 2005, Wenzel's son was on the payroll of the Ohio Republican Party.

http://www.counterpunch.org/pringle06092006.html

[rinsd]

30. LOL!

[mod mom]

41. DLC-PNAC Ties:

Will Marshall, the head of PPI signed PNAC letters.
(Called "Bill Clinton's idea mill," the Progressive Policy Institute was responsible for many of the Clinton administration's initiatives...)
Starting right after 9/11.
***************************
Along with such neocon stalwarts as Robert Kagan, Bruce Jackson, Joshua Muravchik, James Woolsey, and Eliot Cohen, a half-dozen Democrats were among the 23 individuals who signed PNAC's first letter on post-war Iraq. Among the Democrats were Ivo Daalder of the Brookings Institution and a member of Clinton's National Security Council staff; Martin Indyk, Clinton's ambassador to Israel; Will Marshall of the Progressive Policy Institute and Democratic Leadership Council; Dennis Ross, Clinton's top adviser on the Israel-Palestinian negotiations; and James Steinberg, Clinton's deputy national security adviser and head of foreign policy studies at Brookings.

http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0522-10.htm

[rinsd]

42. Its gets better and better. Thanks for the laughs.

[mod mom]

46. Maybe you find PNAC-DLC ties funny but most of us don't. Let's not forget Carville:

Close Clinton Associate James Carville:

Did Carville Tip Bush Off to Kerry Strategy (Woodward)


By M.J. Rosenberg | bio




On page 344, Woodward describes the doings at the White House in the early morning hours of Wednesday, the day after the '04 election.

Apparently, Kerry had decided not to concede. There were 250,000 outstanding ballots in Ohio.

So Kerry decides to fight. In fact, he considers going to Ohio to camp out with his voters until there is a recount. This is the last thing the White House needs, especially after Florida 2000.

-snip

"Carville told her he had some inside news. The Kerry campaign was going to challenge the provisional ballots in Ohio -- perhaps up to 250,000 of them. 'I don't agree with it, Carville said. I'm just telling you that's what they're talking about.'

-snip

http://www.tpmcafe.com/blog/coffeehouse/2006/oct/07/did_carville_tip_bush_off_to_kerry_strategy_woodward

[rinsd]

48. Somewhere on DU, blm's ears are burning.

And yes I find conspiracy theories funny. I find those who believe them even funnier.

[Tellurian]

50. Are these the peanut ties?

only one I could find..

[mod mom]

56. TPM is such a conspiracy site -isn't it and Bob Woodward is practically the father

of all conspiracy theories. Don't believe me? PLEASE do yourself (and country) a favor and check it out yourself.

[Tellurian]

61. Sometimes I wonder if Woodward has a gambling habit...

or IF he's gone round the bend:

[rinsd]

85. Bob Woodward loves to write fiction, see his books on Bush (nt)

[laugle]

67. BLM....where are you????

LOL....

[RaleighNCDUer]

58. I hope you still enjoy your chuckle when Hillary is crushed

in the general election.

[jgraz]

63. She'll never get that far

But if she does, she's gonna win. I can't believe this country will vote for another Repug president.

[RaleighNCDUer]

66. I wish I could believe that,

but her negatives are so high I think that it would keep the general election in a 3 - 6% range of whoever her opponant is, which is easily close enough for them to steal again.

And since losing in 08 would mean investigation and prosecution of all the crimes of the past (by then) 8 years, there is no way they won't cheat. We need someone who doesn't already have the undying antipathy of 80% of the repubs, and 40% of the independents.

[jgraz]

72. Oh no...losing to Hillary won't mean that at all

Look at what her Hubby did. Forgive and forget, remember? He let all the Iran-Contra criminals skate, and Hillary will do the same for BushCo. After all, we wouldn't want her accused of being overly partisan, now would we?

[Morereason]

91. I agree it is name recognition.. our people are lazy

In my office are many people who are democrats that have not kept up in the least. I doubt most of them know much about the contenders.

I think they are also unlikely to vote in the primaries. It would be interesting to see more polls of likely primary voters. It might be quite different.

[laugle]

31. Before 911 I would have been for

a fresh face, but things are way different now, and I would take strong leadership and experience now!

Hillary is kicking-ass, just like I expected. The Clinton's know how to win elections.

Go Hill and Bill, the DYNAMIC DUO, because we need 2 president's to clean-up the bush mess!!!!!!!!

[jgraz]

35. Hell yeah -- voting based on 9/11 has done us SOOOOO much good

:eyes:

[laugle]

47. If you haven't noticed that our country has changed

drastically since 911 and the horrendous Bush presidency, you need to put the pipe down!!

Do you have anymore productive comments to add to this discussion, you need to chill.......take a walk....get away from your keyboard....go see "Sickco"......you'll feel better

[jgraz]

51. I've seen Sicko -- which is why I'm going to support someone with a real health care plan

..not just one triangulated to guarantee her donations from big insurance and pharma.


You go promote your 911 911 TERRA TERRA TERRA FEAR FEAR FEAR platform. You're playing right into the Rethug's hands.

[laugle]

65. I'm not some

hick from the sticks, you know that!

You know Californians are not wimps! You also know, due to the idiot in the WH, we are in deep shit!

Now....that said.....who's your favorite candidate and why?

BTW, I'm ready for anything that happens, food, water, etc., are you?

[laugle]

69. BTW, stop watching too much Guliani, dems aren't running

a "FEAR" campaign!! Geez.......

BTW, who are Berkelians supporting...just curious, now tell me the truth?

[jgraz]

74. "BTW, who are Berkelians supporting"

I don't know. I missed the last "Bring Down America" meeting. :crazy:

[laugle]

80. Well you said they weren't supporting Hillary, so

I just thought you may have a direct line to them......there's not much in my Pacifica Tribune about Berkeley!

[jgraz]

84. Well, how many Hillary stickers do you see around town?

I see mostly Kucinich and Stewart/Colbert. ;)

[laugle]

89. Jgraz.......you know that's not really an idicator!

I have no stickers on my Jaguar since I don't like the mess they make.

My husband has a truck and he displays the stickers......

[laugle]

81. Well....I figure someone that likes

piano, Jazz, cooking and Feingold, can't be all bad.....ummmmm....might have to put you on my buddy list....LOL

Besides.........were neighbors.......

[durrrty libby]

45. Yes indeed ..I could not agree more

:thumbsup: :applause: :applause: :applause:

[martymar64]

32. If she wins the election, it'll be business as usual.

Nothing will change.

[beyurslf]

37. Right. Because she will put Justices on the Court who are just like Roberts and Alito.

Why, I bet she voted to confirm them both!

[jgraz]

52. Which dem candidate would nominate Roberts or Alito?

Save that argument for the general. It don't mean shit for the primaries.

[beyurslf]

76. None of them. I was being sarcastic. Note that I said she voted to

confirm them in my post to show that I was being stupid---she voted against both of course. It is a perfect example of why the "Dems are just like Repubs" argument is just wrong.

[martymar64]

86. Will she repeal the Patriot act?

Will she stop NSA spying on Americans?
Will she close Guantanamo?
Will she restore Habeas Corpus?

The answer is NO!

She won't do any of those things. She has no interest in help the people, she just is interested in helping corporations.
Plus she'll invade Iran just to look tough on defense.
I have no confidence that she will do anything even closely resembling the right thing. She hasn't yet, why would she start now?

[RaleighNCDUer]

55. Well, it indicates to me that a large proportion of her followers

don't know what the fuck they're doing.

"She has a 51 percent to 29 percent lead over Obama among those in favor of a complete, immediate withdrawal."

Yet SHE has NEVER said she favors a complete, immediate withdrawal.

What is wrong with this picture?

[jgraz]

57. Nothing is wrong with this picture

In fact, there's a lot right with it. It means Hill's support is extremely soft, and nobody but the hardcore politicos (like us) are paying attention at this point.

If she's still 20+ points up in January, I'll start to take her seriously. Until then (and even after then) I'm gonna work my ass off to make sure we actually nominate a Democrat this time.

[Tellurian]

60. I feel the same way jgraz..

I know Hillary can stand up to anything the repukes throw at her. And why I don't mind playing with the Obamanutz. In the long run, the constant needling inoculates you to negative opinions. So, you just go forward and Win!

[jgraz]

62. You seem to be mistaking me for an Obama supporter

Nothing could be further from the truth. (Well, mistaking me for a Hillary supporter would be further)

I'm voting for Jasper
\/

[sampsonblk]

59. Maybe campaigns aren't about position papers

Maybe they are about who voters think would best tackle the problems they care about at the moment.

I am not endorsing that line of thinking. But it does appear that a large number of voters are looking at it that way.

Add in the nostalgia factor. The Clinton days were great. And the GOP would absolutely collapse on the floor crying if Hillary Clinton becomes president.

There you have it.

[democratsin08]

68. we must sacrifice

obama is causing alot of trouble and fracturing the party. we need to rally around mrs clinton.

[laugle]

70. Welcome newby!!

Hope you have a strong stomach.....

[democratsin08]

75. very strong

lol!! i think obama's attacks are ripping apart the party.

[Forkboy]

71. There's other songs in the jukebox.

Please,play a different one. :silly:

[jgraz]

73. Yeah, that Obama's so uppity

But at least he's articulate about it.

[ShortnFiery]

79. Huh?

That's the MOST asinine argument that I've ever viewed on DU. :wtf: OVER!?!

[ShortnFiery]

78. Right on cue!

I don't believe it. Honestly, I do NOT. The damn M$M is tied in with the political elites and it bleeds down to polling.

What does it tell you about integrity, or lack thereof, when NPR hires Frank Luntz? :scared:

The only poll that matters is The Primaries. ;)

[eridani]

83. Great. Thousands of more dead sick people.

We really need more sucking up to insurance companies. :sarcasm: She'd better have good ads, because there aren't going to be many health care issue doorbelling worker bees willing to make the effort.

[Alamom]

87. kick

for RKM :hi:

Welcome back.....

[UrbScotty]

88. Try all you want to intimidate people who want decency in politics.

It's not gonna work. Not on me, at least.

[martymar64]

90. Enough with the Hillary infomercials, already!

We get it, you really like her.
Now please quit trying to shove her down our collective throats. It makes you sound like a shill.

[Morereason]

92. Random sample.. Not sample of likely primary voters... DUH!

Not even likely voters. Just people who say they are democrats or "democratic leaning" independents. You can't apply it well to the primary. This is propaganda.