Fear Of Fred Thompson

[DemocratSinceBirth]

For those of you who fear a "Fred Thompson" candidacy all I can tell you America has changed... Hispanics and African Americans make up nearly thirty percent of the American population, though they do not yet vote in numbers to match their percentage of the population. The Republicans have alienated both of those communities...If you do the math and the Democrats get ninety percent of the African American vote and seventy percent of the Hispanic vote they need to get little more than thirty percent of the Caucasian vote to win... The old calculus used to be the Democrats only needed to get about forty percent of the Caucasian vote to win... But I suspect the growing mistrust of the Republican party by our Hispanic brothers and sisters will change that calculus...

Fred Thompson might have been a good candidate if this was 1970 or even 1980 but it isn't...

I suspect the 08 presidential race will still be close and will resemble the 00 and 04 races but it will not be a clone... I suspect the Republicans will sweep Dixie but Florida will be hotly contested...I think they will also do well where they always do well- Nebraska, the Dakotas, Utah, Alaska, Wyoming, etcetera... The big difference is I can see New Mexico, Arizona, and Colorado going Democratic... This is more than enough to swing the election...

I use to "fear" Fred Thompson's good old boy persona but it doesn't play well outside of Dixie and rural America...

I'm not fearful...

[Hippo_Tron]

1. I agree

I'm an advocate of the 50 state strategy and so I don't support ignoring the south. However, the 50 state strategy takes time, and I don't think '08 will be the year that the south votes Democratic. That being said, African American populations are growing faster than white populations in many southern states and that bodes well for the Democrats' chance in the future. Democrats may not have a chance in those states now, but as the population dynamics shift, their chances will increase. The process can be accelerated by spreading the Democratic message with the 50 state strategy.

Also, lets not forget that the GOP is going to have an extremely uphill battle to win Ohio this time around. Especially since Ken Blackwell is out of power and he can't take black voters off the rolls and make people wait in line for 12 hours in Democratic precincts by not bringing enough machines or ballots.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. It's Not Just African Americans...It's Hispanics...

I believe there are more Hispanics than African Americans already and the difference in population between the two groups will only grow... The Republicans really shot themselves in the foot with their nativist , anti-immigration views...

As for a fifty state strategy I'm for anything that works... I have principles and ideals but I am a pragmatist...That being said I suspect a rerun of 00 and 04 but with the Dems doing a bit better out west and that will make all the difference...

Dixie is Republican occupied territory but VA and FL will be hotly contested... I submit those two states are southern by geography only, at least major parts of them are...


I just don't think Fred Thomspon is ten feet tall...People compare him to Reagan... People forget Reagan beat a very , very unpopular president...Thompson would have to defend the policies of a very, very unpopular president...Huge difference...

[Hippo_Tron]

7. Reagan also didn't win in a landslide in 1980, Anderson took votes mostly from Carter

And you are correct that the circumstances are quite different. Carter was extremely unpopular and the only thing standing between Reagan and the White House was Carter convincing the American People that Reagan was a warmonger who couldn't be trusted. All Reagan had to do was play the part of the sweet old grandfather and it was over.

When he won again in 1984 it was the same story. The economy was good which led to Reagan's popularity. The only thing he had to do was convince the public that he wasn't too old to serve another term. That stupid one-liner "I will not make my opponent's youth and inexperience an issue in this campaign" won him the election.

2008 will not be nearly as easy for Fred as 1980 and 1984 were for Reagan. Also, Fred Thompson may be compared to Reagan but he isn't Reagan. I despise Reagan, his policies, and most of all his legacy, but even I get emotional watching the Challenger speech. Fred Thompson's ability to deliver a speech isn't even close to Reagan's.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Obviously I Didn't Like Reagan

But Reagan was a very effective communicator...


I just think demographically this a very different nation and the political climate is much more favorable to the Democrats in 08 than it was in 80... The Dems lost a ton of congressional seats in the 78 and 80 elections...

This election is the Democrats to lose... I suspect the oddsmakers and the political futures markets see it the same way...

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

2. Nor am I

and not just for the reasons you state. His record as a lobbyist won't sit well with those who wish someone to be ideologically pure. His rep for being a bit of a prima donna in acting circles won't win him a lot of ringing endorsements from Hollywood.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. I Can See The Appeal Of His Personality

I can see the appeal of his personality in Dixie and in rural America- the good ole , plainspoken, boy... I just don't see it playing as well in the rest of the country...

[Perry Logan]

5. No need to fear any Republican. Even they know they're toast.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. I Don't Want To Get Overconfident..

I'm reminded of the 1976 election where Gerald Ford ,the handpicked successor of the disgraced president, came within a percentage or so points and 30,000 votes in Hawaii and Ohio of beating Jimmy Carter...

[tularetom]

9. In this media dominated age where youth and looks prevail

Americans are not going to vote for someone as physically unattractive as Fred Thompson. The guy is fugly.

When was the last time we elected a bald president - Eisenhower. An unattractive presiedent - well, I guess Nixon.

The others since then have been fairly normal looking.

Sounds dumb but I don't think people want that ugly face on TV for the next four years.

Sorry if this sounds shallow. I'm not a prize myself but then again I'm not running for president.

[JenniferJuniper]

10. I hate to agree...

but I do. Hence my fear of Mitt Romney.

[bornskeptic]

11. Not afraid of Fred Thompson-but your numbers don't add up.

Even assuming that African-Americans and Hispanics vote in numbers proportional to their population, if The Democrats get 80% of their votes and 30% of the white votes, that only adds up to 24% + 21% = 45% of the total vote. We would stll need about 38% of the white vote to get a majority. The way things are going though, I think we should be able to do that easily.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. I Forgot Asians

Who I think break Demoratic by about 3-2...

[mother earth]

13. And where do the voting machines factor in? They've made

a mockery of our voting system by stealing two elections, and you trust it won't happen again? I sure don't.

Don't fear anybody, fear the machines.

[abq e streeter]

14. Important point

With all the posts about the rising Black and Hispanic populations , its unfortunately important to remember that just because a member of these groups attempts to vote , it doesn't mean they'll be allowed to, and that if they do vote, that it'll be counted. We need overwhelming numbers of minorities, and aware and informed people of all groups, to show up and vote so that any theft will be so obvious even the MSM can't ignore it. ( I know, that's probably being naive; the MSM continues to amaze me with what they're willing to ignore).

[Hippo_Tron]

15. Democrats control the Secretary of State/Governor's mansions in all key swing states...

Except Florida. Election tampering may be a problem in Florida, but not the rest of the swing states, and especially not in Ohio.

[ruggerson]

16. Totally Agreed

and I'm comfortable that any of our three "frontrunners" can beat him. I think Giuiliani is a more formidable foe, but I think he's eminently beatable as well.